@Eagles @Chiefs #SuperBowlSunday
I have this game covered every way imaginable, props, O/U, outright winner. Im going to post my entire card below and as always bet responsibly.
Under 50 (-110)
Kansas City and Philadelphia have a surplus of weapons on offense, but we also have two very stellar stop units, headlined by two nasty pass rushes. The Big Game has pumped out the Unders in recent years (2-9 in last 11), with each of the last four games staying below the total.
Jalen Hurts - Score a Touchdown (+118)
Since Week 10, he’s had nine touchdowns across nine games and has been held out of the end zone just twice over that stretch. The Eagles have also been giving every one of their three running backs carries in the red zone making it hard to take any of them.
Travis Kelce - Score a Touchdown (-106)
No pass-catcher had more red-zone opportunities than Kelce at 38 and it isn’t even close. He has been Mahomes #1 option for years now. There is no bigger lock tonight than Kelce getting in for 6.
Jalen Hurts o9.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
A little shocked to see this at 9.5 and at -110 vig at PointsBet. Hurts drew plenty of called runs against the Niners (as well as those trademark QB sneaks), and he also found himself running from the pass rush a few times. Same thing goes in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles' zone-read offense leaning into its dual-threat QB and taking on an aggressive Chiefs front four. The last time Kansas City faced an offense like this and a QB this dangerous, it gave up 107 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson way back in Week 2 of last season.
Jalen Hurts o45.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Hurts drew plenty of called runs against the Niners (as well as those trademark QB sneaks), and he also found himself running from the pass rush a few times. Same thing goes in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles' zone-read offense leaning into its dual-threat QB and taking on an aggressive Chiefs front four. The last time Kansas City faced an offense like this and a QB this dangerous, it gave up 107 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson way back in Week 2 of last season.
Jalen Hurts u247.5 Passing Yards (-118)
The O/U on Hurts' passing yards total is set as high as 247.5, and with the tendency of the public to love betting Overs, don't be surprised to see this number get even higher before kickoff. That said, the sharp play might be on the Under when you consider the matchup and Philadelphia's tendency to lean on its ground game.
A.J. Brown u5.5 receptions (-125)
Kansas City held Joe Burrow to his worst quarterback rating since Week 1 and Trevor Lawrence’s 74.4 QB rating was his third-lowest mark on the season. This is not a cake-walk of a matchup for Hurts and Brown and although I think it will be tough to contain Brown (who finished third in receptions of 30+ yards and ranked seventh in the league in deep targets per game), a six-catch game against a defense that has an extra week to prepare is less probable.
DeVonta Smith o61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The best way to play this line is to back the Over. It’s a number he’s exceeded on 10 occasions this season and narrowly missed adding an 11th in the Divisional Round, falling just a yard short. He’s become more and more integral to the success of this offense as the season's gone on and the numbers bear that out. He went Over 61.5 receiving yards just three times in the first 11 games but has done it six times in the last eight.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Score a Touchdown (+950)
CEH found the endzone six times this season before his injury, splitting his touchdowns equally between the ground and the air. I’m not saying that Edwards-Helaire is going to lead the backfield in carries on Sunday, but he’ll take the Ronald Jones role as the third back, with Jerick McKinnon likely to also lose touches as a result. In the biggest game of the season with Andy Reid calling plays, we could see CEH used in some interesting play calls that should give him a good chance to find paydirt.
JuJu Smith-Schuster u37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
In three regular season contests and two postseason games, Smith-Schuster has caught 10 passes for 119 yards and no scores. That’s not a single game total; those are his combined stats over that stretch. At no point in that span has he caught more than five balls or had more than 35 yards receiving.
Both teams to score 20 points (-140)
It's not very surprising that the Chiefs and the Eagles are tied for first in the NFL with 28.7 ppg during both the regular season and playoffs. Jalen Hurts was an MVP candidate for most of this year, while Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. What is surprising is that while both teams rolled through the season and are meeting in the Super Bowl, they've been vulnerable defensively. The Chiefs were 16th in the league in scoring defense (21.7 ppg allowed), while the Eagles were seventh. But Philly faced some soft opponents down the stretch.
Patrick Mahomes o38.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows his best shot at winning his second Super Bowl title is relying on the arm of his All-World quarterback. And Reid has proven he's comfortable doing that. Mahomes is averaging 39.3 pass attempts over his last nine playoff games. He’s gone Over 38.5 throws in five of his previous six playoff appearances. And he’s attempted 42 and 49 pass attempts in his last two Super Bowls.
Isaih Pacheco o13.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Isiah Pacheco is taking over the Kansas City backfield. He’s playing on both rushing and passing downs, and set a season-high in snap share vs. the Bengals at 57%. We’re starting to see some more trust with Pacheco in the passing game, as he had a season-high six targets, five catches, and 59 receiving yards in the AFC Championship Game. Jerick McKinnon is dealing with ankle injuries, which isn’t great news for his stock. This is going to be Pacheco’s backfield.
Color of first Gatorade poured on winning head coach (+400)
This is the sort of bet where you ideally don't want to grab anything at below +300 since there are so many legitimate options. I'm picking blue, which has been the color of choice in three of the last four years and "Cool Blue" was the most popular flavor sold in the US when a study was done in late 2020.
Eagles -1.5 (-110)
Gang gang bird gang. The lasting image of the Chiefs’ loss in the Super Bowl two years ago is Patrick Mahomes running for his life. The best front to replicate what the Buccaneers did against the game’s best quarterback, and the line tasked with protecting him, is Philadelphia’s. The Eagles fell just shy of setting the NFL record for most sacks in a season and have the best passing defense in the league for when the pass rush doesn’t get home. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City’s defense is ill-equipped to stop the run, which Philly can lean on to mount long drives and keep the likely MVP off the field.
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl MVP (+130)
Eagles win, Hurts has 4 total TD's. Book it.
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