Let's head into the #Divisional round on some good vibes.
Spent the last few days doing my due diligence as an research journalist, studied the all 22, created some algorithms, did about 7 sit-ups, and these are the plays I have come up with for the four games this week.
As my co-worker Jim likes to tell me when he sends me a sales email template that I probably won't use...."take it, tweak it, ignore it".
Let's start with Texans @ Ravens.
Zay Flowers o50.5 receiving yards (-110)
This matchup with Houston suits Flowers’ skill set perfectly. He does his best work against zone defense and the Houston Texans run the eighth-highest rate of zone in the NFL, namely a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Flowers averages 13.5 yards per reception against zone and has recently torched zone-based secondaries like the Rams (60 yards) and San Francisco (72 yards). He’s also saved his best for the Baltimore faithful, thriving at home with 12.7 yards per catch (vs. 9.3 on the road).
Devin Singletary o57.5 rushing yards (-112)
Singletary had only 15 yards on seven carries versus the Ravens in Week 1 but was the RB2 behind Dameon Pierce to start the year, and the Texans were forced to go pass-heavy after trailing 22-6 in the third quarter of that season opener. He’s now getting the touches to top this total, taking over as Houston’s RB1 in the second half of the season, and has marched for 60-plus yards in seven of his last 10 games overall.
Stroud Over 35.5 pass attempts (+108)
Baltimore has been a favorite by a TD or more four times this year and each time the opposing QB has thrown the ball 37 times or more. These aren’t even good QBs as Gardner Minshew threw the 44 times and Josh Dobbs had 37 passes. Over Baltimore’s final five wins, it’s faced 38, 46, 43, 41, and 44 pass attempts. It doesn’t matter who is under center, game script is the most important thing when looking at pass volume and Houston could be passing a ton in this one if a healthy and motivated Baltimore team continues to dominate its opponents. Every losing QB last week had at least 35 pass attempts with a median of 37.5 and every one of them hit the Over on their pass attempts by an average of 7.7 pass attempts.
C.J. Stroud u240.5 passing yards (-114)
Player projections for Saturday’s game are all over the place. Some peg Stroud for a monster day with a ceiling of 265 yards, given the game script of Houston playing from behind and having to go pass-heavy. Several others are also currently bouncing around the prop total at 250 yards. However, the bulk of models are on the low end, including some trusted forecasts, which range from 227 to as low as 207 yards passing. My number came out at 27 yards from Stroud, and an early first quarter concussion (we don't root for injuries here, but he cheated against the Browns YO). Mix in a Ravens offense that could stick Stroud on the sideline with a run heavy approach, along with the Baltimore defense and detriment weather, and I’m fading the “rookie” to top his passing prop in the Divisional Round.
Lamar Jackson o1.5 pass TDs (+114)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens get a favorable matchup against a Houston Texans team that’s no more than adequate defensively. While the Texans have been solid at shutting down the rushing game, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush this season, teams have been able to throw against them, completing 68.1% of passes for 10.2 yards per attempt.
If you are feeling a little saucy, or if you're Uncle Tim after a bucket and a half of ice cold Miller Lites, you can throw a few dabloons on these as well.
Devin Singletary 75+ rushing yards (+200)
Singletary racked up 5.1 yards per carry vs. Cleveland last week and would have had more work if not for the game script. The RB's projected volume is extremely promising on Saturday, so I'm jumping on his 75+ rushing yards milestone at +200 odds.
C.J. Stroud - Score a Touchdown (+1000)
With the likely increase in pass volume and some possible wind, C.J. Stroud could also be doing a little more scrambling. At +1,000 for a TD, he is worth a half-unit as well. Pinnacle is pricing this at +534 which is a massive discrepancy and a lot closer to where this price should be. He has three rushing TDs on the season and over his last three losses, he has rushed for a TD in two of them.
Packers @ 49ers:
This is a contentious game for CMS, a real heavy weight boxing match. In one corner we got Neef weighing in at 185, 2% body fat, and not likely to his phone until the end of the game, rooting for the 9ers. In the other corner we have Uncle Tim, weighing in at weight unknown because he doesnt remember when he last ate, and is probably drunk off Proper 12 Irish whiskey, drawing up another Packers Super Bowl tattoo.
Christian McCaffrey o30.5 receiving yards (-120)
McCaffrey has 19 receptions for 175 yards over his last five games and led all running backs with 5.4 yards per catch. CMC boasts big-play capability as a receiver out of the backfield, with three receiving plays of 20+ since December 1. Bet on the 49ers star to clear 30.5 receiving yards on Saturday.
Aaron Jones o17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Aaron Jones has been one of the league's most capable running backs in the passing game, running his fair share of downfield routes on top of the plethora of short-area patterns. The San Francisco 49ers might be the perfect opponent to try that against, as they allow the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs on a per-game basis.
Jayden Reed - Score a Touchdown (+188)
The Niners' have been particularly poor at covering wide receivers in the red zone. They have allowed the third most fantasy points per game (which would serve as a benchmark metric for total production) to the position in that area of the field. Second-round rookie Jayden Reed put together a quietly great regular season among his receiver class, ranking sixth in yards and tied for first in total touchdowns.
Brandon Aiyuk o4.5 Receptions Made (-120)
Brandon Aiyuk may not be the flashiest or sexiest receiver, but his refined technical skills have netted him his best year yet. He amassed 75 receptions for 1,342 yards this year across 16 games and was awarded with a second-team All-Pro designation for his efforts. On Saturday, he will likely line up across from former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. However, Alexander may come into this game as a shell of his true self. The corner was limited in practice this week with an ankle injury and was completely absent from Wednesday and Thursday's practices. A bum ankle is arguably the worst injury to carry when facing off against one of the league's best route runners.
Packers/49ers u51.5 (-115)
Feels like Green Bay’s high-scoring finish versus Dallas is running this total too high. Let’s not forget the Packers scored on defense and had another TD handed to them thanks to an INT from the Cowboys deep in their end. Green Bay also gave up points late in the game after it yanked many defensive starters, so don’t put too much weight on that 48-32 final score. The 49ers run the ball at the second-highest rate and are the most methodical offense in the NFL in terms of pace. They’ll grind out long possessions against a soft Green Bay run stop and leave the Packers little time with the football.
Romeo Doubs 50+ receiving yards (+190)
Doubs led all Green Bay receivers in route share last week (68%) with only two WRs posting a RS% above 50%. He also paced the group in air yards (97), targets (six), and finished with six grabs for 151 yards and a score in basically three quarters. If Green Bay is trailing, it will likely be Doubs again getting the lion's share of passes his way. His 50-plus receiving yards is currently listed at +190 and is worth a full unit. He has the potential to achieve this with just one catch, but considering the impressive projected volume from last week's statistics, there are various paths to reaching this goal.
Jordan Love - Score a Touchdown (+1000)
Using the same logic as the C.J. Stroud TD at +1,000, Jordan Love to score a TD at the same price. This is an offense that should also see an increase in pass volume as a 9.5-point dog. Love has four rushing TDs on the season including two over the last three weeks of the regular season. Dating back to Week 4, Aaron Jones is 1-for-33 on RZ carries. He isn’t the most efficient red-zone runner which helps Love’s scramble chances inside the 20.
