Good morning friends! It's a beautiful sunny Saturday here in NY, as I sit on my couch I watching Pat McAfee and the crew eat seafood towers on College Gameday in South Carolina, and I nervously fart and don't know if I shit my pants. Whether my Under Armor joggers are soiled or not, I wanted to share my gambling card for the day.
Memphis @ Floridia State: Memphis +6.5 (-105)
It’s possible that DJ Uiagalelei could have more opportunities to shine against Memphis, but one of the biggest problems for the quarterback has been missing wide-open throws. The quality of the opposing secondary won’t matter much if the senior can’t deliver the ball accurately. Florida State will even have its hands full on defense. The Seminoles haven’t stopped the run at all and now face a capable running back in Mario Anderson, who was part of a 211-yard rushing attack for the Tigers last week against Troy. Memphis also boasts one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football, as four-year starter Seth Henigan has thrown for over 11,000 yards and 82 touchdowns in his storied career. This is a game where the Seminoles should be on upset alert, and I wouldn’t judge anyone for betting on Memphis to win outright.
Cincinatti @ Miami (OH): Miami (OH) ML (+135)
A conservative thought may be to take Miami (OH) at +3.5, but why be conservative when the RedHawks may have both the better offense and the better defense. The offenses may be about equal, in all sincerity, but Miami’s defense is leaps and bounds better. Furthermore, Chuck Martin wants to lean on the run until he turns loose quarterback Brett Gabbert. Returning four starting OL and your leading rusher creates that preference. Cincinnati’s defense is terrible at stopping the run. Miami bleed this clock. It will deprive Cinci of enough possessions to create multiple scoring chances. A shorter game will only further confidence in this aggressive moneyline play.
Boston College @ Missouri: Missouri -15.5 (-110)
Missouri enjoys a balanced offense, throwing for 263 yards while rushing for 255 against Buffalo in a 38-0 win, but the ground game is more important to its success, particularly after the arrival of Appalchian State transfer Nate Noel. Boston College stalled Florida State’s run game two weeks ago, but that may not be the accomplishment we once thought it would be. This spread is treating the Eagles like they beat an undervalued Seminoles team, not a possibly overvalued one. Before that game, Missouri would have been favored in this tilt by three touchdowns. This jump to -15.5 may be the last of the overreactions to Florida State’s 2024 stumble.
Texas A&M @ Florida: Florida +3.5 (-110)
The key item here remains who will start at QB for Florida. But you get the sense it's Lagway. Nappier was coy with the media earlier this week, stating that both QBs would play, and while that may be true, it's hard to rationalize how you wouldn't at least start with the player who showed such a promising skillset last week. I'll call his bluff. I'm backing on Nappier's back-against-the-wall spot to force him to row with the freshman and for him to respond, leading Florida to a cover and a win when they are more desperate than ever.
Norte Dame @ Purdue: Florida -7.5 (-110)
A week ago, this spread would have hung around -14. Then ND lost outright as a four-touchdown favorite. But no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Remembering that is Gambling 101. So this falling to -10 is an overreaction.As more information comes out this week, it is rather clear part of Notre Dame’s debacle tied to quarterback Riley Leonard’s non-throwing shoulder, reportedly injured early in the game. Adjusting an offensive gameplan on the fly because your running-threat quarterback is now in too much pain to run effectively will dampen most offenses, and it certainly did so for the Irish. Adjusting one with a week’s notice is far less worrying.
UCF @ TCU: UCF -2 (-110):
Praising TCU for halting Stanford's run-heavy offense is not lofty praise. UCF has a genuinely worrying run-heavy offense, Gus Malzahn’s usual preferences burgeoned by the addition of quarterback KJ Jefferson. UCF has yet to run against a worthwhile foe, but the world knows what Malzahn intends, and the world knows what Malzahn can do with a physical, dual-threat quarterback. TCU opened as a two-point home favorite here. One can argue with relative ease that moving to +2 is hardly a big jump, since only 0 in that range is considered a notable number. The counterargument would be, you’re right, the line should move further.
Will also be taking the under in this game at 62.5 (-110):
With the third-highest total of the Week 3 slate, the Under presents value and I’m going to take it. The UCF Knights are going to look to run the ball early and often, and they are having success doing so with a three-headed monster at tailback. UCF ran the ball 57 times for a staggering 384 yards in their win over Sam Houston State, but 27 of those carries went for five yards or less. They have tended to be boom-or-bust in the ground game, and the TCU Horned Frogs defense will likely allow fewer explosive runs than what the Knights enjoyed against their first two opponents.
All lines are provided by @CaesarsSports. Let's get that bread!
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