As a man of integrity and honor, I wanted to follow up with the where my record stands after both the 4:30 and 8pm game yesterday, spoiler alert.....it's NOT good. After the Bills game wrapped, I was sitting with an 8-11 record through the first three games of the #NFL playoffs.
4:30pm Packers @ Eagles
u45.5 Packers/Eagles - Win
Emanuel Wilson TD - Loss
AJ Brown TD - Loss (but hes an avid reader)
Josh Jacobs o69.5 rush yards - Win
Saquon Barkley o103.5 rush yards - Win
Josh Jacobs o16.5 rush attempts - Win
Packers ML - Loss
12-14 Record
8:15p, Commanders @ Buccaneers
Jayden Daniels o0.5 INT's - Loss
Cade Otton TD - Loss
Zach Ertz TD - Loss
Bucky Irving o87.5 Rush yards - Loss
Jayden Daniels o49.5 Rush yards - Loss
o50 - Loss
Crazy 0-6 record in the last game of the night
12-20 Saturday/Sunday Record.....on to Monday with potentially a wild long break if we have another terrible performance.
If this is my last weekend gambling on football, I am going out shooting from the hip.
Sam Darnold o10.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Los Angeles hasn’t played too many fleet-footed QBs, but when it did, it got torched by those dual-threat weapons. Kyler Murray scrambled for a collective 91 yards in two games, Jalen Hurts ran for 39 yards, Josh Allen burned L.A. for 82 yards, and Brock Purdy – who has the same “sneaky speed” as Darnold - finished with 41 yards rushing in a Week 3 matchup with Los Angeles. We often see quarterbacks running more in the playoffs and player projections for Darnold don’t deny his ability to break off gains on the ground. Models range from 10.9 yards to as many as 18.4, with the majority of those forecasts calling for 12 or more rushing yards on Monday. My number comes in just shy of 15 yards rushing for Darnold versus Los Angeles.
Joshua Karty o6.5 kicking points (-129)
Rams kicker Joshua Karty was responsible for more than half their points scored in their final four games, with 39 of 69 coming off his foot. That includes last week, when he made all four field-goal attempts, including a pair from 50+ yards out. Karty has scored at least eight points in five straight contests and has been getting plenty of chances as the Rams continue to struggle to find the end zone. Los Angeles ranks 25th in touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line, breaching the goal line on less than 52.4% of their visits.
Tyler Higbee o23.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
While the Vikings have been very good defensively, tight ends have found success. In their last three games, opposing tight ends have totaled 200 yards on 16 catches with all three starters gaining 50+ yards. Tyler Higbee is -155 to haul in three or more catches, giving us better value on his total yardage should that come to fruition.
o47.5 (-110)
This handicap comes down to a single factor for both teams: can they give their quarterbacks time in the pocket? Matthew Stafford had the worst passing grade under pressure (29.6) per PFF while Sam Darnold struggled immensely last week when the Lions had 22 hurries. Ultimately, I think both QBs will have time to make plays here. The Rams O-line made massive improvements during the season and didn't give up a single sack in seven of Stafford's last 10 starts. That included a Week 8 clash against Minnesota where he threw for 279 yards with Kyren Williams adding 97 rushing yards. The Vikes blitz at the highest rate in the NFL but if they don't hit home with that pressure they get burned. Meanwhile, the Rams were in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate and were 28th in defensive dropback EPA. That vulnerable secondary will get torched by Darnold and All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson.
Aaron Jones anytime TD (+130)
Very few No. 1 running backs can be had for this price this weekend, and after Sam Darnold’s red-zone display last week (2-for-11 inside the 20), the Minnesota Vikings may be a little more likely to run the ball in close on Monday night. The Los Angeles Rams defense is legit, though. I'm not ignoring that. Matthew Stafford threw one passing TD over his last three games, and the Rams won each one. However, it’s still a 48-point total that might not even be played in L.A. because of the terrible fires in the state of California. I’d buy Aaron Jones at even money or better as he will get opportunities, and this price was 50 points shorter last week vs. Detroit and 60 points shorter in Week 17 vs. the Packers.
Matthew Stafford 250+ Passing Yards (+122)
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has been much better at home than on the road this season, which is good as they welcome a Minnesota Vikings defense that has an elite run defense... but has seen the pass defense decline: The Vikings are giving up nearly 20 more passing yards per game in the back half of the season, with their sack total dropping by one-third as well. With another higher-scoring game expected, the offense may well need to run through Stafford's arm — and I think he delivers.
L.A. Rams +1.5 (-105)
Los Angeles defense doesn’t do a lot well, but slamming the door in the red zone is one of them. The Rams have been among the stingier defenses inside their own 20-yard line all year (50% TD rate allowed) and McVay will have plenty of info on O’Connell’s offense to share with his stop unit. The Vikings can’t afford to let Los Angeles hang around. The Rams find another gear in fourth quarters on both sides of the ball. Their offensive EPA per play jumps to No. 9 in the final frame and the defensive side of that metric spikes to No. 14 in the 4Q – a significant stride compared to their rating of 27th in the opening 45 minutes.
Comments