There comes a time in every young man's life when you are faced with a decision to know when to hold em, and know when to fold em. Despite my record in the Saturday games, I am not ready to fold em yet. Here is a quick break down of my picks and record from yesterday's games.
Joe Mixon TD - Win
Ladd McConkey RD - Win
Quentin Johnston o42.5 yards - Brutal Loss (0 yards)
CJ Stroud u 231.5 pass yards - loss
Herbert o1.5 Passing TD's - Loss
McConkey 75+ receiving yards - win
Charges - 3 - Loss
CJ Stroud u34.5 pass attempts - win
Game under 43.5 - Brutal loss (44 total points)
4-5 Record 4:30 Game
Mark Andrews TD - Loss
Pat Freiermuth TD - Loss
Steelers +10 - Loss
Game under 43.5 - Win, barely (42 total points)
1-3 Record 8pm Game
Saturday Record 5-8
I am not seeing the board well, but I will continue to throw shit against the wall until it sticks. Here are my plays for the Battle of the B's at 1pm.
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown (+650)
Nowadays, Dawson Knox sees roughly three targets per game. He’s also seen two of his five Red Zone targets across his last five games, and I like him as a sneaky play to receive a scoring strike. That’s because Knox is fifth on the all-time list of tight ends with six touchdown receptions in 10 NFL playoff games, meeting a Denver Broncos defense that might also accommodate him. The Broncos have surrendered 16 of its 22 scoring strikes inside the 20. Allen is projected to clear his passing touchdown prop (1.5), so I like him to help his one-time favorite set of mitts continue his trek toward playoff history by scoring a touchdown.
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown (+135)
Courtland Sutton has been targeted no fewer than seven times, only once across his previous eight games, and during that span, he’s hauled in seven scoring strikes. The Nix-Sutton duo is up against a Buffalo Bills defense, coughing up 223 passing yards per game and 28 passing touchdowns this season. The Denver Broncos will likely be playing from a deficit, and they can attack the Bills' leaky defense through the air. Buffalo has surrendered 23 TD receptions in the Red Zone, and I am betting Nix will find Sutton as often as possible, and the veteran wideout finds paydirt.
Buffalo -8.5 (-120)
At first glance, this spread looks too large but the Broncos have struggled against quality opponents. If you take out their Week 18 rout against the Chiefs backups, the Broncos went 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS against teams that finished the season .500 or better. Denver's highly-rated defense has looked vulnerable since the start of December, giving up 30+ points and more than 6.0 yards per play to the Bengals, Chargers, and Browns. The Broncos will have a tough time containing a Bills attack that led the league in EPA/play before resting MVP favorite Josh Allen in Week 18. When you look at teams that exposed Buffalo's stop unit during the second half of the season, (Miami, Detroit, and the Rams) they all have significantly better weapons than Denver. Bo Nix was sharp down the stretch but he's a rookie QB playing on the road in a playoff game and he doesn't have much help around him.
Dalton Kincaid anytime TD (+300)
My best TD angle here is Buffalo passing short and to its tight ends and running backs. Patrick Surtain will likely see very little action his way, and Dalton Kincaid will benefit the most from getting Week 18 off. He is currently trading at +300 at FanDuel for a TD, which might be the best price for any member of the Buffalo offense, especially with some books as short as +210 for the Kincaid score. After returning to the lineup in Week 15, the second-year TE saw his snap share around 50%, which should increase in Sunday’s playoff game at home with good passing conditions following the rest. Before the injury, he was playing 80% of the snaps and running more routes. His market is low as he hasn’t produced much of late, but he will play a big role Sunday vs. the Denver defense that allowed Mike Gesicki to go for 10 catches and 86 two weeks ago on 12 targets.
Josh Allen o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
Allen’s propensity to take off and run it in himself is the reason why this Over is EVEN money. He’s connected for at least two scores in four of his five showings prior to being parked in Week 18. Denver runs man coverage almost exclusively, and Allen’s sees very positive splits against man-to-man, including seventh in success rate vs. man and boasts the fifth highest passer rating against man – compared to the 27th passer rating vs. zone. Buffalo has some amazing non-WR targets at TEs and RB, which is asking the Broncos LBs to do a lot. This is revenge for what Justin Herbert failed to do, some are saying this play is free.
Josh Allen o41.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Allen scrambled at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season at 19.4% of his dropbacks. He also gained 383 rushing yards on his scrambles, which is fifth highest in the league. He tallied another 148 yards on designed runs this season. The Broncos have not faced too many rushing quarterbacks this season but have still been susceptible to quarterback scrambles. With the likely leading game script for the Bills, I would expect Allen to look to avoid pressure by running the ball rather than throwing a quick pass that could lead to a turnover.
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