The NFL Is Back: The Biggest Storylines Heading Into the 2026 Season

Training camps are officially underway, every team has reported, and we have finally reached the point of the summer where convincing ourselves football is basically back is acceptable.

We are still weeks away from meaningful games, but this is when the season starts taking shape. Veterans return in suspiciously good shape. Every rookie looks like a future Hall of Famer in shorts. Beat reporters start posting clips of quarterbacks completing passes against no pass rush, and fan bases immediately begin planning trips to the Super Bowl.

Still, beneath all the normal training-camp nonsense, this season has some legitimately fascinating storylines.

The Seattle Seahawks are trying to defend a championship. Patrick Mahomes is coming back from a major knee injury. Several young quarterbacks are entering make-or-break seasons. The MVP race is wide open, and there are teams on both sides of the standings that I think the public may have completely wrong.

Let’s break it all down.

Can the Seahawks Actually Repeat?

Every conversation about the 2026 season has to begin with the defending champions.

Seattle won 14 games last season and rode the NFL’s top scoring defense to a Super Bowl victory over New England. Mike Macdonald’s defense became the identity of the team, and Seattle now enters camp facing the hardest challenge in professional sports: doing it again when every opponent has spent an entire offseason studying how to beat you.

There is no reason to believe Seattle is suddenly going away. The defense is young, physical and still loaded with playmakers. Devon Witherspoon is practicing while extension talks continue, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has developed into the face of the offense, and first-round running back Jadarian Price has already been one of the early names drawing attention in camp.

But repeating is a different animal.

Seattle will get every team’s best shot. Opposing coaches have an entire season of film on Macdonald’s system, and the Seahawks will no longer benefit from entering the year as an overlooked contender. Oddsmakers are also projecting a noticeable drop from last season’s 14 victories, although at least one major projection model still sees value in Seattle exceeding 10.5 wins.

My biggest question is whether the offense can carry the team on the Sundays when the defense isn’t completely dominant. Championship teams eventually encounter a game where they need to win 34-31 instead of 17-13. If Seattle can consistently do both, it has a real chance to become the first repeat champion in years.

Patrick Mahomes’ Knee Changes the Entire AFC

The strangest storyline of the season is Patrick Mahomes somehow feeling like an underdog.

Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee on December 14, ending Kansas City’s season and immediately making his recovery the biggest issue hanging over the franchise. Reports throughout the offseason have been positive, and expectations remain that he will be available for the beginning of the regular season. Still, there is an enormous difference between being medically cleared and looking like Patrick Mahomes.

Can he escape pressure the same way?

Will he trust the knee when he has to plant and throw across his body?

Will Kansas City protect him differently?

And what happens if the Chiefs start slowly?

We have become so accustomed to Mahomes owning the AFC that it feels strange to even question him. But a major knee injury changes things, especially for a quarterback whose ability to improvise is such a massive part of what makes him special.

Kansas City also invested in its defensive front, using premium picks on Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas. Both rookies have talked about the intensity and technical demands of Andy Reid’s camp, and the Chiefs may need that young defense to help carry the load while Mahomes works his way back toward full strength.

I am not betting against Mahomes over an entire season.

But for the first time in a long time, the Chiefs feel vulnerable.

The AFC Quarterback Bloodbath

Even with Mahomes recovering, the AFC remains completely ridiculous.

Josh Allen currently sits near the top of most MVP markets. Lamar Jackson is right behind him. Joe Burrow is healthy and rising. Justin Herbert is receiving plenty of preseason respect, while Drake Maye, Dak Prescott and several other quarterbacks are also drawing legitimate MVP interest.

That is before mentioning young quarterbacks like Cam Ward, who enters Year 2 as one of the league’s most popular breakout candidates. NFL analysts have highlighted Ward as a potential centerpiece of Tennessee’s next step, and a major jump from him could make the Titans one of the league’s surprise teams.

The AFC playoffs are going to be brutal.

Some very good quarterback is going to miss the postseason. Some team with double-digit wins may end up traveling on Wild Card Weekend. One injury or one bad divisional stretch could be the difference between hosting a playoff game and watching the postseason from home.

My early AFC hierarchy begins with Buffalo, Baltimore and Cincinnati, with Kansas City sitting in the most unusual position it has occupied during the Mahomes era: dangerous, respected and surrounded by legitimate questions.

The MVP Race

The MVP award has essentially become a quarterback award, so we can save ourselves some time and begin there.

Josh Allen is the current betting favorite in several markets, with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert among the other quarterbacks near the top of the board.

Josh Allen

Allen is the safest preseason pick because Buffalo is going to win games, the offense runs through him, and his combination of passing and rushing production gives him a statistical advantage over almost everyone.

The issue is voter fatigue. Allen has already won the award, and voters may require something ridiculous for him to repeat.

Joe Burrow

Burrow is my favorite value among the established contenders.

If Cincinnati stays healthy and wins the AFC North, Burrow will put up the type of passing numbers that force him into the conversation. The Bengals also have a manageable schedule on paper compared with several other contenders.

Lamar Jackson

Every year people somehow forget how unstoppable Baltimore looks when Lamar is healthy. The Ravens are beginning a new era under head coach Jesse Minter after John Harbaugh’s departure, which makes Baltimore one of the league’s most interesting teams.

If the coaching transition goes smoothly and Baltimore wins 12 or 13 games, Lamar will be right there again.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is the ultimate narrative candidate.

If he comes back from a torn ACL and LCL, leads Kansas City to another division title and looks remotely like his old self, voters will love that story. His odds reflect both the uncertainty and the upside.

My Early Pick: Joe Burrow

Give me Burrow.

I think Cincinnati is positioned to bounce back, and if the Bengals win the AFC North while Burrow leads the league in passing or touchdowns, he will have the cleanest MVP case in football.

Teams That Could Overachieve

Detroit Lions

Detroit is my favorite bounce-back team.

The Lions were one of the league’s biggest disappointments last season, but the roster remains too talented to stay down. The offensive line has been rebuilt, Penei Sewell is moving to left tackle, and Detroit invested heavily in fixing the unit that fell apart last year.

There will be growing pains, but this feels like the exact type of team everyone gives up on one year too early. One major win-total projection has already identified Detroit as a strong bounce-back candidate capable of getting back above 10 wins.

Tennessee Titans

This is all about Cam Ward.

If Ward takes the Year 2 leap that many analysts are expecting, Tennessee could become one of those annoying teams nobody wants to play by November. They do not need him to become Mahomes. They need him to become consistent, protect the football and create enough explosive plays to complement a young roster.

I am not predicting a Super Bowl run.

I am saying they could be far better than the public expects.

New York Giants

Jaxson Dart is one of my favorite breakout candidates in the league.

He showed serious promise as a rookie and now gets John Harbaugh, Matt Nagy, Isaiah Likely, Malik Nabers and an upgraded offensive line. NFL.com noted that his rookie production placed him in rare historical company, and the support around him is significantly better entering Year 2.

If Dart is real, the Giants could go from irrelevant to legitimately dangerous very quickly.

New Orleans Saints

This is not the sexiest pick, but the schedule matters.

New Orleans has one of the easier projected roads in football, and in a weak division, that can be enough to hang around much longer than expected.

I do not love the roster.

I love the opportunity.

Teams That Could Underachieve

New England Patriots

New England won 14 games and reached the Super Bowl last season, which was an incredible run.

It also created massive expectations.

The Patriots are now being treated like an established powerhouse instead of a young team that may have arrived slightly ahead of schedule. Their quarterback is legitimate, their defense is strong, and they deserve respect. But going from surprise contender to hunted contender is a completely different challenge.

A regression from 14 wins does not mean the season failed.

It simply means winning 14 games is extremely difficult to repeat.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have talent, but their schedule is brutal.

Chicago is projected to face one of the hardest schedules in the league, and Caleb Williams still needs to prove he can play consistently for an entire season.

I like the direction of the franchise.

I do not like the combination of expectations, divisional competition and schedule difficulty.

Miami Dolphins

Miami enters the season with one of the league’s lowest projected win totals and one of its toughest schedules.

That is a horrible combination.

The roster still has recognizable names, but the margin for error feels nonexistent. One slow start could turn the entire season into a teardown discussion before Halloween.

Seattle Seahawks

Yes, I know I just said Seattle can repeat.

Both things can be true.

The Seahawks can remain an elite team and still underachieve relative to the expectations that come with winning a championship. Fourteen wins and another Super Bowl appearance are unfair standards, and even a very strong 11-win season could feel like regression.

That is the burden of defending the trophy.

The Rookie Class: Who Can Matter Immediately?

Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks

Price has one of the cleanest immediate paths to relevance.

He joins the defending champion, has already flashed early in camp and will be playing in an offense that should give him meaningful touches without asking him to carry the entire unit.

Running back is also one of the easiest positions for a rookie to make an immediate statistical impact.

David Bailey, EDGE, Jets

The Jets selected Bailey with the second overall pick, and he enters a defense that desperately needs difference-makers. NFL.com graded him as one of the top prospects in the class, and New York will give him every chance to become an immediate centerpiece.

The Jets may not be good, but Bailey could still produce sacks and become one of the most visible rookies in the league.

Arvell Reese, EDGE, Giants

Reese was the fifth overall selection and joins a Giants defense that can use his athleticism immediately.

His rookie production may depend on how quickly he adjusts to NFL protections, but he has the physical traits to become a problem before the end of the season.

Carnell Tate, WR

Tate enters the league with immediate pressure to produce and has already been named among the rookies who need to make a Year 1 impact.

Receiver production can be volatile for rookies, but opportunity matters. If he earns a major role early, he could become one of the most productive players in the class.

Peter Woods, DL, Chiefs

Woods may not produce the prettiest numbers, but he could have one of the biggest impacts.

Kansas City drafted him in the first round, and the Chiefs are clearly preparing him to contribute immediately within a demanding defensive system.

Interior defensive linemen rarely win popularity contests, but Woods could make life significantly easier for everyone around him.

The Quarterback Battles Nobody Should Ignore

Several teams still have unsettled or unstable quarterback situations entering camp.

Atlanta is dealing with health questions surrounding Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., which led the team to add Cooper Rush as insurance.

Minnesota, Cleveland and Las Vegas also enter camp with quarterback decisions that could determine their seasons, while the Jets are attempting to stabilize the offense around Geno Smith and new coordinator Frank Reich.

These battles sound like August content until you remember that one quarterback decision can completely change an entire conference.

By Week 6, at least one coach will already be answering questions about whether he chose the wrong starter.

My Early Super Bowl Contenders

In the AFC, I have Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Kansas City.

Buffalo feels like the safest regular-season team. Cincinnati has the offensive ceiling. Baltimore has Lamar Jackson. Kansas City has Mahomes, assuming his knee holds up.

In the NFC, Seattle remains the standard. I also expect Detroit to return to the conversation, and I am not ignoring the teams with established quarterbacks and strong offensive lines just because they were less exciting last season.

The NFL changes too quickly to confidently predict February in July.

But that has never stopped anyone before.

Final Predictions

MVP: Joe Burrow

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jadarian Price

Defensive Rookie of the Year: David Bailey

Overachieving team: Detroit Lions

Underachieving team: Chicago Bears

AFC champion: Cincinnati Bengals

NFC champion: Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowl champion: Cincinnati Bengals

The NFL is officially back.

Now we can spend the next month overreacting to practice clips, pretending preseason football matters and talking ourselves into teams that will be 2-6 by Halloween.

I would not have it any other way.