Well it has been a miserable season for the Browns and I am glad to finally see it come to an end. It has been so bad the Browns will be starting their 4th QB of the season, Bailey Zappee, because DTR is THAT bad. The Ravens have nothing to play for except a Derrick Henry TD. But here are some of my other plays for the game.
Cleveland +17.5 (-110)
As bad as the Browns are, 17.5 is a huge spread to be betting against, especially when there are still some difference-makers on defense. The fact this game is taking place in Week 18 might save the Browns blushes, with Cleveland not getting heavily beaten on by their divisional rivals. The Ravens will win, there’s no doubt about that, but we know the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up. Once the Ravens are a couple of scores up, why would they risk Lamar Jackson and their best playmakers? It’s hard to see the motivation for the Ravens to finish the game with the players who started it. Expect to see plenty of rushing and some backups on the field late.
Ravens -10.5 — 1H (-110)
The Browns haven’t been able to put points on the board with an average of just 7.5 per across their past four games. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has even hinted at Dorian Thompson-Robinson (calf) and Bailey Zappe both seeing the field Saturday. Either way, it’s a nightmare setup with Baltimore turning a corner on defense and checking out as an elite stop unit since Week 11. The Ravens have surrendered the second-lowest EPA per play and lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks while allowing just 16.3 points per game since Week 11. For comparison, Baltimore allowed the sixth-highest EPA per play and fourth-highest YPA to QBs with 25.3 points against per game to start the year.
Derrick Henry o89.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Henry has come back to life to close out the season, rumbling for 309 yards over his last two games, and while the Baltimore Ravens have plenty of motivation (playoff position AND revenge for an earlier loss)... the Cleveland Browns are in full-blown tank mode with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. Baltimore should dominate the game, as evidenced by the lofty spread, which has me expecting a heavy dose of King Henry as he prepares for his first playoff game in three years.
Browns First Half Team Total u6.5 (-124)
Cleveland could roll out the two-headed monster of DTR and Bailey Zappe in Week 18 against a Ravens defense with something to play for – at least in the opening 30 minutes. Baltimore still trying to clinch the AFC North and we know we’ll get an all-out effort in the first half. The Browns have put up scores of 7, 6 and 3 points in their last three games. On top of that, we have crazy cold and crazy winds in Baltimore. Under 6.5 from Cleveland in the opening half.
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