I just want to note the research I did this off season may have paid off. It is early, but I am hitting often. I went 3/3 on Thursday Utah -5 (-110)/Nebraska +7 (-110) and Minnesota ML after they went down.
Followed up Friday with a whirlwind of emotions. Started early with hitting Central Michigan at Michigan State: u45, missed the mark with Miami(OH) at Miami: Miami (Ohio) +16 -110. Sweated out Louisville at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech +7.5 -110....also doubled down with them because I caught GT at +7 (+100) right before kick off. Rounded it out with Stanford -3 to finish Friday with a 4-1 record on the night. Hawaii sucks!
So we riding the hot hand into a loaded Saturday slate of games. I said all week I wanted to be smart about how I handled betting this weekend, told myself I would only dabble with a few Saturday games but here we are, up a few units and ready to attack the board.
Virginia at Tennesse: Tennesse -27.5 (-110)
The Volunteers have SEC title hopes again, rational or not. For those to be viable, Tennessee has to put together another prolific offense, this time led by Joe Milton and a new fleet of receivers. Establishing early chemistry will allow them to build momentum before back-to-back-to-back October games against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Kentucky. Head coach Josh Heupel will give Milton plenty of deep looks early in the season.
Colorado at TCU: Colorado +20.5 (-110)
COACH PRIME. Feel good, look good, play good. Deion Sanders' son, Shedeur Sanders, will lead the Colorado offense after transferring from Jackson State, where he threw for 3,752 yards and 40 TDs. Alton McCaskill from Houston and Kavosiey Smoke from Kentucky will lead a backfield with plenty of experience. They also took the two leading receivers from USF last season to be the main targets for Sanders. It is very likely that TCU will see a bit of a step down on offense, and their ability to rush the quarterback on defense may be limited after losing their two leaders in tackles for loss and sacks. "I want my kids to have a good time, for them to show how much they love the game. They want the noise and they cant wait to put it on display"-Prime Time Deion Sanders
Utah St at Iowa: u43.5 (-110)
Iowa QB Cade McNamara is a bit of a question mark entering this contest after suffering a quad injury in practice a couple of weeks ago. If he does play, he could be limited, which means a potentially rough day on offense for the Hawkeyes. Utah State was punchless in 2022 and doesn't appear much better now. Back the Under, back the #data.
Arkansas St at Oklahoma: Arkansas St +36 (-110)
While it might feel like it at first glance, this doesn’t look like a game in which Oklahoma won’t face a single challenge over the course of 60 minutes. The spread on this game is over five touchdowns at most sites, and that’s just too much to lay with a Sooners team that has to prove they are an elite program again. I’m taking the Red Wolves and the points.
Rice at Texas: Texas -35.5 (-110)
With Ewers leading the way and joined by 10 returning starters, the Longhorns are in position to improve on last year's offense that ranked 44th in EPA per play. They rank third in the country on offense in SP+’s returning production metric with 85% of their offensive production back this season. It’s going to be a long day for Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren and an even longer one for defensive coordinator Brian Smith, whose unit finished 119th in defensive EPA per play last season. They were especially bad against the pass, finishing 127th.
Boise St at Washington: Washington -14 (-110)
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. gets to face a Boise State secondary replacing its two best players, two All-Mountain West first-teamers. No matter their replacements, the Broncos will have a drop-off. The Huskies' passing game ranked No. 2 in the country last year and was a primary piece of Washington having greater third- and fourth-down success than any other offense. Boise St sick unis tho.
West Virginia at Penn St: Penn St -20.5 (-110)
I want to preface this that Joe Pa knew, and Penn St defenders act like nothing happened. I don't like betting Penn St, especially against WVU, but it is what it is. While you never know for certain how a blue chip recruit will develop from their freshman to sophomore season, Allar’s first start comes at home against a West Virginia program that’s down on its luck. Last season, the Mountaineers defense finished 108th in EPA per pass play on defense, 10th worst among all Power Five programs. With only four returning starters on defense, including just one in the secondary (Aubrey Burks), Allar is poised to put on a show. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich won’t have to worry about his young quarterback lacking weapons either, receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith and tight end Theo Johnson should be the next Nittany Lions pass catchers to be drafted. Kent State transfer Dante Cephas also joins the team after putting up over 1,900 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last two seasons with the Golden Flashes. Joe Pa also shit his pants and had to run to the locker room before halftime, people forget but I don't.
North Carolina at South Carolina: UNC -2.5 (-115)
Drake Maye. That is all. Tez Walker may or may not be eligible to play, which is why the spread has gone from North Carolina -3 to -2.5, and even that is an overreaction. The Tar Heels might not pass that much against South Carolina. North Carolina returns its entire backfield and four of its five offensive linemen. It was a largely successful run game last season, so returning those aspects should, obviously, only help. I know Dr. Data is backing me on this.
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