With Sunday football coming to a close, our thoughts and prayers go out to Uncle Tim and his Green Bay Packers. #LoveHurts, as he just throws his third pick of the game. I will have my updated weekend record for gambling following the last game of the night. As my Lord and Savior, Baker Mayfield, will be the first QB to put on a dominant performance and save the weekend slate of these games.
Jayden Daniels o0.5 interceptions (-125)
Sunday's Wild Card game marks a rematch from Week 1 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prevailed 37-20 at home. That was Jayden Daniels’ first career NFL game, and it was clear the Washington Commanders were trying to get Daniels comfortable by sticking to the run game. However, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has really opened the passing game lately. Daniels has attempted at least 30 passes in eight of his last nine games, excluding Week 18 when he only played the first half. Additionally, he has thrown seven of his nine interceptions during the second half of the season, with all of them coming against zone coverage. The Bucs run zone on 84.0% of dropbacks this season, which is the second most in the NFL. Rookie quarterbacks are known for making mistakes in their first playoff game and I like the odds of Daniels following that role on Sunday night.
Cade Otton anytime touchdown (+220)
Those numbers are slightly inflated thanks to the period in which the team was missing not only Evans but also Chris Godwin. Regardless of that, we’ve seen him step up when needed and manage an impressive 10.2 yards per catch. The Commanders have had issues against tight ends this season. Despite giving up just 678 yards to the position, an average of just 39.8 yards per game, they’ve allowed eight TDs to the TEs There are only four teams in the NFL that have given up more touchdowns to tight ends than the Commanders. That should mean Otton has a chance to feast on Sunday, but on the off chance that he’s ruled out, it’ll be worth taking Payne Durham, who is available at a big price, too.
Zach Ertz anytime touchdown (+205)
Ertz leads the Commanders' offense in red zone targets with 18 targets inside the 20, compared with 14 for his closest competitor McLaurin, and they’re the only two players with double-digit targets in the red zone. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, we saw Ertz score just once; however, in the eight weeks that followed, we saw Ertz score six times despite the team having their bye in Week 14. Those six touchdowns come across seven games, and there have only been two games in that run in which they haven’t scored. Over the past fortnight we’ve seen Ertz get 12 targets, hauling in 11 of those and scoring three times in the process. He’s in great form, clearly has the trust of Jayden Daniels, and will fancy his chances of scoring in a game that is expected to be high-scoring with a points total of 50.5 points.
Bucky Irving o87.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore returning to Washington's secondary, the Bucs might be less inclined to attack through the air. Instead, expect OC Liam Coen to lean on Bucky Irving and the ground game. The rookie emerged as one of the league's best running backs down the stretch, racking up three 100-yard games since the start of December. Despite checking in at just 195 pounds, Irving has proved that he can carry a heavy workload. He logged 25 carries for 152 yards in Week 13 and carried the ball 20 times for 113 yards in Week 17 before finishing the season with a 19-carry, 89-yard performance versus the Saints. The Commanders are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) while ranking 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.8) and 27th in defensive rush EPA.
Jayden Daniels o49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Ignoring Week 18 when he played just the first half, Daniels has rushed for 65+ yards in four of his last five games. He also rushed for 88 yards on 16 carries when these teams played back in Week 1. Daniels finished the regular season with 891 rushing yards with a league-high 595 of those yards coming on scrambles. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks, allowing a 65% success rate on scrambles, the third-worst mark in the league. Daniels has a league-best run grade of 93.0 when blitzed and Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate in the NFL. The Bucs are also in the Top-10 in sacks and pressures which should lead to Daniels being forced out of the pocket and making more plays with his feet.
o50 (-110)
The Commanders and Bucs went a combined 23-11 O/U during the regular season. These teams met up back in Week 1 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning 37-20. And that was with Jayden Daniels making his NFL debut and averaging just 1.6 air yards per completion. Since then Daniels has put together arguably the greatest season for a rookie QB in NFL history and has spearheaded a Washington offense that is fourth in the league in EPA/play. They should move the ball against a Bucs squad that ranks 23nd in defensive success rate. That said, Tampa Bay should also torch a Commanders stop unit that is 22nd in defensive EPA. Baker Mayfield will pick apart a brutal Washington secondary while Bucky Irving gashes a defense that surrenders 4.8 yards per carry.
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