TOUR Championship Outright Picks: Best Bets & Value Plays

The final stop of the PGA Tour season has arrived, and East Lake Golf Club will once again crown the FedEx Cup champion. With the world’s best locked in, it’s a perfect time to dig into the outright board and find value among both proven winners and hungry contenders. Here are five names I’m targeting heading into the TOUR Championship.

Collin Morikawa (+3000)

Collin Morikawa feels like one of the most underpriced names on the board. He finished runner-up here last year and comes in with his ball-striking trending upward — ranking second in this field in strokes gained on approach across his past two tournaments. Yes, the recent results haven’t been sparkling, with only one Top 10 since April, but that’s exactly why we’re getting such an appealing number. Morikawa has the game to flip the switch at East Lake, and at 30/1, he’s a live longshot to run hot.

Ben Griffin (+3500)

Ben Griffin doesn’t have the big-name recognition yet, but he’s earned his way into this finale with consistent play. His gutsy BMW Championship finish — where he rebounded from a disastrous +6 through three holes to shoot under par on Sunday — showed poise and resilience. Statistically, he’s been excellent: 7th in tee-to-green and 4th in putting in this field dating back to the PGA Championship. Making his debut at East Lake, Griffin’s fearless style and confidence make him a sneaky-good sleeper at 35/1.

Russell Henley (+2700)

When it comes to course history, few stack up to Russell Henley at East Lake. In four appearances, he owns two Top 5s and two more Top 15s — highlighted by a scorching Sunday 62 last year to finish T4. The form is equally impressive: he’s 2nd in tee-to-green and 5th in approach play over his past six starts. Henley isn’t flashy, but he’s rock-solid and keeps himself in contention. At 27/1, the track record plus current form makes him one of the strongest outright values.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)

The wait for Tommy Fleetwood’s first PGA Tour victory has been long, but everything points toward it coming soon. He’s fresh off consecutive Top 5 finishes, ranking 3rd in tee-to-green and 5th in putting over that span. This will be his fifth trip to East Lake, and he’s gained strokes off the tee and on approach in every single one. Fleetwood has been knocking on the door all season, and if there was ever a stage for the breakthrough, East Lake at 16/1 might finally be it.

Sam Burns (+3000)

Sam Burns has found his form at the right time. His T4 at the BMW Championship last week showcased sharp ball-striking and a confident putter. Burns also posted a T12 here last year, ranking 9th tee-to-green and 2nd on approaches. Recently, he’s been lights out with the flat stick, ranking 1st in putting across the field. If he keeps pairing that elite putting with steady approach play, Burns has the upside to be right in the mix come Sunday at 30/1.

The TOUR Championship field is loaded, but there’s real betting value outside of the top favorites. Fleetwood feels like the most likely to contend wire-to-wire, but Henley and Morikawa stand out as excellent value plays given their course fit and history. Don’t sleep on Griffin as a debutant with upside, and Burns brings the kind of hot form that can carry into a FedEx Cup finale.

East Lake often rewards precision and momentum — and this group checks both boxes.