Quickly recapping last weekends Arnold Palmer invitational. Scottie Scheffler has learned how to putt.
AP Invites Picks from last week:
Max Homa: T8th (-4)
Jason Day: T36th (+2)
Sam Burns: T30th (+1)
Viktor Hovland: T36th (+2)
Matt Fitzpatrick: CUT
Adam Scott: CUT
The PGA Tour's most prestigious non-major tournament of the season begins on Thursday, March 9, at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida! THE PLAYERS Championship, widely considered to be the fifth major on Tour, has been played at the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass every year since 1982. This week marks the 50th anniversary of THE PLAYERS.
The top players on the PGA Tour will be playing for the second week in a row, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scheffler is the 11-2 favorite in The Players Championship odds, sitting ahead of Rory McIlroy (12-1) atop the PGA odds board.
TPC Sawgrass, an infamous track designed by golf architecture legend Pete Dye, plays as a par 72 and ranges 7,275 yards -- nearly 200 yards shorter than last week's tournament at Bay Hill. However, driving accuracy will be crucial again this week, with water hazards coming into play on 17 of the 18 holes. The course also features thick three-inch Bermuda rough, narrow fairways (31 yards wide on average), 92 fairway and greenside sand bunkers, and lightning-quick Bermuda greens. It's a true test for all parts of a player's game.
Tournament details: The PLAYERS Championship
Date: Mar 14–17, 2024
Course:Players Stadium Course
Watch on:NBC, GOLF
Purse: $25,000,000
Here are my picks.
Outright Winners:
Scottie Scheffler (+500): I'm not scared of Scheffler trying to win back to back tournaments and back to back Players. That's how well he's playing and how well he's hitting the golf ball right now. And for everybody saying that he can't have two hot putting weekends in a row, I say, it doesn't matter. He won this tournament by five strokes (seven over third place) last year when he was field average in putting. Best player in the world, and it's not even close.
Justin Thomas (+2200): Picking anyone against Scheffler after last week might be folly but his +550 odds are just too short for me to bite. So we will go with the 2021 champion who has shown he’s on the way back. Ranked eigth in SG: Tee-to-Green this year.
Xander Schauffle(+2200): The first guy to target is Xander Schauffele, who's arguably been the best player on TOUR this season to not yet secure a win. Dating back to last season, he's reached the weekend in 27 straight tournaments and finished Top 10 in 14 of those thanks to his excellent approach game, something that's essential for success at TPC Sawgrass. Last season, each of the Top-4 finishers in this tournament ranked in the Top 5 in strokes gained approach. He also finished T19 finished here last year and came runner-up in 2018.
Max Homa (+2800): Was in the hunt the last two years (T6/T13). He’s T8/T16 in his last two events. Nothing further.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000): Another guy to target is Hideki Matsuyama, who's also utilized a strong approach game to get off to a fantastic start this season. He's reached the weekend in all seven tournaments he's played, including his win at Riviera. He's also had tremendous success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing fifth last year, T8 in 2019, and T7 in 2016. With a strong approach game, good form, and previous success at this venue, 30/1 is worth a dart throw on Matsuyama.
Top 10 Locks:
Will Zalatoris: Anyone other than Scheffler feels uncertain, but I'll go with Zalatoris. He's rattled off three straight top 15s with a pair of top-five finishes in signature events. Plenty has been made of the broomstick putter, and while it has vastly improved his play on the greens, Zalatoris has made strides in another area of the bag. Employing a shorter driver, Zalatoris is finding the short grass off the tee at one of the highest clips of his career. These improvements combined with his iron play should lead to a quality result.
Hideki Matsuyama: Can I pick Scheffler again here? Nobody is a lock for anything at TPC Sawgrass, but Matsuyama has two top 10s in his last four appearances at the Players Championship and is hitting the ball as well as anybody. Among those with 20 measured rounds in their last 36 played, Matsuyama ranks ninth in tee-to-green play, won the Genesis Invitational and finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Sleeper Picks:
Wyndham Clark (+4000): I'm not sure what I'm missing here. He won the Pebble Beach Pro Am and finished second to Scheffler at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a week ago. Yet he's 40-1 to win the Players? He's been bad in the other events he's played, sure, but that's kind of the point. Feast or famine right now for Clark, which is a good thing for a 40-1 sleeper.
Russell Henley (+6000): It's time to put some respect on his name. Henley is fresh off a T4 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and an ideal statistical fit at TPC Sawgrass. One of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the planet, Henley will be able to pick apart this tricky Pete Dye design. His putting has been much improved in 2024, transforming the 34-year-old into a complete player. He collected top 20s in his last two attempts at The Players.
Keegan Bradley (+9000): Last five Players finishes: MC (2023), 5th (2022), T-29 (2021), T-16 (2019) and T-7 (2018) Last five Tour finishes: T-36 (Arnold Palmer Invitational), MC (Genesis Invitational), T-11 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), T-43 (Farmers Insurance Open) and T-2 (Sony Open). Keegan has carried consistent play from last season and I wouldnt be shocked seeing him at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Star who definitely won't win
Rory McIlroy: What is going on with McIlroy's iron play is anyone's guess at the moment, but I do know it is not good. He has been driving the ball like a stallion for the past month but gotten absolutely nothing out of it. The big numbers have riddled his scorecard so far in 2024, and that is not something you want coming into TPC Sawgrass where high leverage golf shots are plentiful.
Surprise prediction:
A 150-1 (or longer) long shot will be in contention on Sunday: This is not really that surprising given how much variance this course seems to bring about and the field being a bit less top heavy with plenty of major stars now competing over in LIV Golf.
Half the top 10 on the oddsboard miss the cut: TPC Sawgrass is labeled as volatile by some, but it is more high-leverage than anything. The par-3 17th is a great example as a missed green in regulation doesn't lead to a potential par save or bogey, but almost certainly a double bogey. Shots like these are throughout the golf course. Because of this and the sloppiness of some of the PGA Tour's top players, I reckon half of them will be sent packing early.
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