Hello friends, I'm Young Horn. Returning to the golf gambling scene after a few weeks off to analyze the data. I am writing this sitting in the JFK airport bar as I wait to fly to have a wonderful weekend full of golf and Miller Lites with Uncle Timmy.
Golf in March begins with two huge PGA Tour events starting with the $20 million Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) followed by the Players Championship. And I am here for it. We have reached the 10th tournament of the 2024 PGA Tour schedule and with it, the fourth Signature Event of the young season. Sixty-nine players are in the limited field classic that is the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Country Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Perhaps that will increase our chances at a second outright winner of this season. Or, perhaps we’ll finally join the longshot party. Nobody would be mad about that.
One major surprise I am calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024: McIlroy, a 24-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. McIlroy won this event in 2018 after firing a 64 in the final round and he secured a T-2 finish at Bay Hill in 2023. However, he has struggled out of the gate in 2024, failing to crack the top-15 in his first three starts on the PGA Tour this season.
Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 22-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title.
Tournament details: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Date:Mar 7–10, 2024
Course:Bay Hill Golf Course
Watch on:GOLF, NBC
Purse: $20,000,000
Outright Winners:
Max Homa (+2200) – You know I am a HomaSexual, but I like where Max' game is at. This is an eye-catching price for a limited-field event, especially on a track where Homa has finished T17 or better each of the last three years.
Jason Day (+3300) – He’s been threatening to join the winner's circle again recently and there’s arguably no better place for him to do it than here where he’s a proven winner.
Sam Burns (+2200) – So close he can almost taste it. I had someone say that to me before. No further comment your honor. Coming in with four straight T10s, I would be shocked with anything less than that this week. One of the hottest players on TOUR this season, but the game-changer for him this week will be his putting. The last five winners averaged 12th in putts gained.
Viktor Hovland (+1800) - Hasn’t played a ton to date this season and has yet to show form in his three starts, all Signature Events. It was this time last season that the Norwegian started to roll. Two Top 10s in his last two starts at Bay Hill. Taking Hovland over all the big names this week. The longshot train ends over these next two weeks.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+105)
Matt Fitzpatrick's Bay Hill resume includes Top-15 finishes in six of his last seven tries. The 2024 form is hit and miss, with three Top 25s to go along with two missed cuts and a T58, but those three bad results came because of some of the worst putting weeks you’ll find from a top player. I don’t fear that happening this week considering he gained stokes on the greens in all nine Bay Hill starts and even gained 5+ true shots putting in five of those.
Adam Scott top-10 finish (+400)
Scott has quietly been on a tear over the last three months. He’s played in seven events worldwide and has yet to finish outside of the top 20. During that stretch, he has five top-10 finishes. More importantly, his ball striking is starting to look like that of Scott in his prime; he has gained more than 14 strokes ball-striking in his last four events