Jon Rahm won the 2023 Masters after a comeback effort, and now a memeber of the LIV Tour, looks to defend his title. Fellow LIV Golfers, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson finished tied for second.
As we look to kick off the first major of the year, and one of the most beautiful courses in the world, which holes named after the floral arrangements seen throughout the ground. Hole 2. Pink Dogwood. Hole 5. Magnolia. And my personal favorite, Hole 13. Azalea.
Whoever wins the 2024 Masters Tournament will receive $3.24 million in prize money. The rest of the purse is distributed in increments depending on placement. For example, the second-place finisher would get $1.584 million and third place would receive $744,000, which was the case in 2023.
The Masters has dealt with its share of weather conditions in recent years. The final round of Tiger Woods’ iconic 2019 victory came hours earlier than scheduled to avoid impending storms. Last year’s leaders played 30 holes on Sunday as storms wiped out much of the third round.
This year’s Masters is largely devoid of rainy conditions, with Thursday as the lone exception. According to the official Augusta National weather forecast, there is an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with an expected rainfall of 1.00-1.50 inches.
“Isolated light showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before rain and thunderstorms arrive early Thursday and continue throughout the morning hours. A cold front is expected to pass through in the early afternoon, with diminishing precipitation chances for the remainder of Thursday. Thunderstorm wind gusts of 40-45 mph will be possible,” the official forecast stated.
Masters predictions aren’t an exact science. The last four winners at Augusta National were first-time champions. But there are always a few hints. Think about who won the Masters in 2023: Jon Rahm was poised for another breakout moment since winning the 2021 U.S. Open, and he delivered by capturing his first green jacket.
The Masters odds board has big names: Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Justin Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama.
But there have been surprises in Augusta in the past. Tiger Woods’ 2019 victory shocked the world. Charl Schwartzel scooped up the 2011 Masters championship when Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 80. Trevor Immelman won in 2008 despite never having won on the PGA Tour.
Before I get to my picks and reasoning....Scottie Scheffler is the easy choice. He’s the favorite, having won at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship in back-to-back weeks earlier this season, followed by a runner-up finish at the Houston Open. However, we will NOT be riding with Scottie. Guy would rather see the potential early birth of his child than win another green jacket.
Outright Winner:
Xander Schauffele to win outright (+1600)
Xander’s odds are reflective of what makes him a true contender at Augusta National every year, and all of that rings true in 2024. His tee-to-green game and form have been pristine, with six Top 10s in eight starts this year, and when you combine that with the success he’s had here at the Masters in his career (T2 in 2019, T3 in 2021, T10 in 2023), his prospects of winning it this year are as great as ever.
Brooks Koepka to win outright (+2000)
With Brooks Koepka already trading as short as +1,400 through Caesars, time is running out to land an inflated number for the major championship ATM. Rewind a year, and he took down the LIV Orlando event and then parlayed it into a 54-hole lead at Augusta National that ultimately resulted in a T2 finish at the 2023 Masters. It’s also particularly encouraging that he finished second in true strokes gained on approach, ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and fourth in true strokes gained putting in last year’s event. His Masters resume also includes a T2 finish in 2019 and another pair of Top-15 results. Add his additional 12 Top-5 results in major championships and I’m as confident in Koepka playing well at Augusta as he is in himself.
Jordan Spieth to win outright (+2500)
In 10 Masters tries, the 2015 Green Jacket winner has finished worse than T11 just three times — one of which was the 2020 November edition — in a resume that includes his 2015 win and five additional Top 5s. His short-game wizardry can often be thanked for that: he gained 3.48 strokes around the green last season, 6.32 strokes in 2022, and 7.08 strokes in 2021. His form has been hit or miss this year, but a T10 at the Valero is just what we needed to see ahead of Spieth’s favorite week of the year.
Dustin Johnson to win outright (+4000)
This is tough to beat, from a value stand point. Johnson won the 2020 Masters, held in November due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yes, he tied for No. 48 last year. But Johnson has five top 10 Masters finishes since 2015, including three inside the top four. Johnson won at LIV Golf’s Las Vegas Invitational earlier this season and placed fifth at Mayakoba.
Joaquin Niemann to win outright (+5000)
Joaquin Niemann globetrotted his way into a special invitation to the Masters and the world-class ball-striker has picked up a trio of worldwide wins and another four Top-5 finishes across eight events since last year’s LIV Golf season finished in October. This will be his fifth trip to Augusta National and he peaked with a T16 finish at last year’s edition. I’m anticipating his skillset, experience, and motivation to be the perfect trifecta for a strong showing at the first major championship of the season.
Long Shot Out Right Winners:
Sam Burns to win outright (+8000)
While the five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t been a factor in majors to this point of his career, Burns has the all-around game to compete at Augusta National and he’s coming off a respectable T29 finish in the 2023 Masters. Fairways and greens are the perfect recipe for him to be successful this week because his putting will lead to more circles than squares on the card.
Adam Scott to win outright (+9000)
The 2013 Masters champ can golf the ball around Augusta National. Scott has played the weekend 14 straight years with 11 Top-40 results. His recent run includes a T48 in 2022 and a solo fifth in 2021 but I like his form after a T14 showing at the Valero where he finished fifth in true strokes gained putting. Add a fall heater that included four consecutive worldwide Top 10s and a T20-T8-T19 stretch during the California Swing, and Scott has been sneaky good without having his tee-to-green game and improved putting working in unison for an entire tournament.
Lucas Glover to win outright (+40000)
I can’t look past this lotto-ticket price for Lucas Glover. There are all kinds of boxes he fails to check, including an underwhelming Augusta National track record, but he’s also in the midst of a career resurgence and strikes the ball with the best. He ranks seventh in true strokes gained on approach, 10th in true strokes gained around-the-green, and 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 34 measured rounds. Add ranking second in driving accuracy, and those are four important boxes he does check. He’s also won twice with another 12 Top-40 finishes across his past 20 starts.
Top 10/20/30 Finish
Jon Rahm Top 20 (-186)
There are no statistical weaknesses in the 29-year-old Spaniard’s game and Rahm’s current form and track record at Augusta National are only rivaled by World No. 1 and betting favorite Scottie Scheffler. The fact Rahm has consistently contended without winning is a bit surprising and the big question is not if he’ll win another major, but when. With a Top-10 finish in five of his past six trips to Augusta National and the noted eight consecutive Top 10s ahead of the 2024 Masters, this is a fair price to back Rahm in the Top-20 market.
Cameron Young Top 30 Finish (-125)
Young can hit the ball, sitting 17th in strokes gained off the tee and 15th in strokes gains approach to green. Reports from Augusta are that the course is playing fast and firm, which means added distance. Young’s short game isn’t great but those conditions fit his style. He was T7 at Augusta last spring, has four Top-10s in his last eight major events, and comes into 2024 in good form, with three Top 3’s and four Top 20s in his eight tournaments this season.
Corey Conners Top 30 (+105)
The Canadian is always someone to watch considering he went T10-T8-T6 in three Augusta starts between 2020 and 2022. He’s logged four Top-25 finishes in his last five starts but his ball-striking metrics mean more to me. He ranked fourth in strokes gained approach at the Texas Open and second at Bay Hill. That has him fourth in the field in strokes gained approach and 12th from tee to green over the last three months. Those types of numbers usually mean a good week at the Masters.
Patrick Reed Top 30 (-105)
Fresh off a T9 finish in the LIV Miami event where he gained strokes on the field on medium and short approaches and on the greens, Reed heads to Augusta National following his best showing of the year. The 2018 Masters champion has carded three additional Top-10 finishes since winning, including last year’s T4 result when he finished third in true strokes gained around-the-green, sixth in true strokes tee-to-green, and 11th in true strokes gained putting.
I am also betting Tiger. That's all Folks!
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