Well, the Chargers are getting crushed, I blew my kids tuition payment on the #Bolts, luckily I have some time to make it up during the night game in Baltimore.
Baltimore has been rolling, Lamar is probably going to win his 3rd MVP, and hopefully these plays win me back some money.
Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+130)
Jackson threw 51 passes inside the 20-yard line this year, and 23 of those went to tight ends. And while Isaiah Likely had just two fewer red zone targets than Andrews, it was Andrews who did the most with those opportunities as he caught 11 of them — nine of which resulted in touchdowns. In fact, while Andrews received only 23.5% of Jackson’s red zone targets on the season, he was responsible for 33% of the passing touchdowns the quarterback threw inside his opponents’ 20-yard line. And in the Baltimore Ravens last four games, Jackson has thrown just seven passes in the red zone — four of which went to Andrews, resulting in three touchdowns.
Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown (+260)
In two games against the Ravens, Freiermuth caught a combined five passes. But in the two games since that Week 16 defeat to Baltimore, quarterback Russell Wilson has looked for him at an increased level. He’s targeted his tight end 17 times in the past two games, with Freiermuth hauling in 15 of those passes. He scored a touchdown against the Bengals last week, giving him touchdown catches in four of his last six games. And while he didn’t score against the Ravens, he did catch every pass thrown in his direction. If Wilson continues to target Freiermuth the way he has the past two weeks, then the price of +260 presents the best value on the board for the Steelers.
....quick side note, shout out Ladd McKonkey for the 86 yard TD and cashing two bets #free.
Pittsburgh +10 (-115)
Betting on the Steelers this Saturday is putting your faith in Mike Tomlin’s defense and hoping the offense can avoid shooting itself in the foot. The Steelers stop unit watched its superior metrics slip in that challenging home stretch. But after finally getting a breather before Week 18, Pittsburgh put the clamps on Cincinnati’s sensational attack and checked the Bengals to only 19 points in last week’s loss. I do give Tomlin the benefit of the doubt when it comes to catching points from the bookies. Not only is he the best coach at covering when catching points, but he’s a 72% ATS winner as a division dog since 2007 which includes a 13-3-2 ATS count as an underdog against the Ravens.
Mr. Unlimiteddddddd
Nothing crazy tonight. Just HB dive up the gut, chip away and climb back with some winners.
u43.5 (-110)
The Steelers averaged 14.3 ppg in their last four games of the season and averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per play against a terrible Bengals defense in Wk 18. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB in Week 7, Pittsburgh is 28th in the NFL in offensive success rate. While the Ravens have an explosive offense, Pittsburgh's defense is built to slow down their run-heavy attack. The Steelers are fifth in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.1) and have a history of slowing down Lamar Jackson. The Ravens won 34-17 when these teams met up three weeks ago which was the first time the Over cashed in the last nine meetings between these rivals. That said, they had a defensive TD and Pittsburgh was missing its best CB in Joey Porter Jr. and DT Larry Ogunjobi. This time the Steelers defense will be at full strength while Baltimore will be missing Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers.
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