Round 2 NCAA Tournament Gambling Plays

We got one more full slate of games left before we have to go back to focusing on work. Let's make it count. With the round of 32 concluding today, here are my plays:

Duke -12 (-110):

Duke has been dominant, entering the tournament with the second-highest net rating in KenPom history. Meanwhile, Baylor has suffered some lopsided defeats when facing top competition, losing by double-digits to Gonzaga, Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Houston. The Bears are 57th in the country in adjusted defense and are getting torched inside and out. With this matchup practically a home game in Raleigh and a healthy Cooper Flagg, lay the points with Duke.

Kentucky (+105):

Even as Illinois has recovered from getting routed in three straight in February, opponents have made 37.1% of their 3s and taken them on 32.2% of FGAs in six games since. The Illini have been living too dangerously. And the Wildcats will gladly make them pay. Kentucky took 3s on 41.9% of its shots in SEC play. That may have been a middling rate in the SEC, but it is in the top third of the country. The Wildcats made 39.6% of those 3s, the best in the SEC. In a conference that generally did not give up clean looks from beyond the arc, Kentucky found them. And it will find them against Illinois.

Maryland -7 (-110):

"Crab Five" have too many ways to hurt you. Inside scoring with Reese and Queen. Outside shooting and fastbreak. Maryland defense No. 6 in country. Very disruptive 13th forced turnovers, 37th blocks, 55th in steals. Flip defense into offense: 18.1 points off turnovers (7th). Colorado State not great on D, poor 3-point protection and can get sloppy with ball handling. Game models as high as Maryland -12.

New Mexico +7.5 (-110):

New Mexico can exploit the flat-footedness of the Michigan State bigs with Nelly Junior Joseph cutting to the basket. He's been spectacular down the stretch, and there's nothing I see in this matchup that should slow him down. When Dent and Junior Joseph have gotten comfortable this season, they've been extremely tough to beat. New Mexico has only lost two games this season when the Senior PG has had six or more assists, with one of those coming when Joseph was held to just 6 points against San Diego State. This is too many points given the expectation of how effective the tandem can be. 

Oregon +4 (-110):

I don't see Arizona having offensive success against an Oregon squad that is fifth in the country in adjusted defense since the middle of February. The Wildcats shoot poorly from the perimeter and need to run the floor and attack the rim to get buckets. Oregon does a good job of protecting the rim thanks to center Nate Bittle, and Arizona's transition offense has stalled lately. The Wildcats are averaging 9.0 ppg on the fastbreak over their last five contests after putting up 14.7 fastbreak ppg before. Ducks coach Dana Altman has done a great job at making adjustments in a tournament setting on a short turnaround. We've seen that in recent March Madness appearances as well as earlier this season in the Players Era Festival, where Oregon beat Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama in a five-day span.