Over the last four weeks, the PGA has had two elevated events, and one major championship, so heading into the Rocket Mortgage Classic we will only see 8 of the top 30 players. We will be seeing the 2022 defending champ, Tony Finau, and this past weekend's winner, Keegan Bradley.
Finau originally opened as a 12-1 favorite in the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic odds from Caesars Sportsbook after his five-shot romp last year and Bradley is at 28-1 after his three-shot win a week ago. Other stars in the field include Justin Thomas (20-1), Rickie Fowler (14-1), Collin Morikawa (14-1) and Max Homa (18-1).
Finau is an interesting story this week, and the data backs it up. He has yet to successfully defend a title on the PGA Tour, so that will be a mental hurdle that he has to overcome this week. Tony has already won two tournaments this season, but he has not posted a top-20 finish since his win at the Mexico Open in April.
Tournament Details:
Dates: June 29 - July 2 | Location: Detroit Golf Club — Detroit, Michigan
Par: 72 | Yardage: 7,370 | Purse: $8,800,000
There are a traditional amount of par 4s (10), par 5s (four), and par 3s (four).
Water comes into play on one hole and there are 87 bunkers.
Now, onto this weeks picks!
Outright Winner:
Rickie Fowler (+1400): Fowler has finished top 15 or better in eight of his last nine starts. The slumping star has looked solid from tee-to-green all season and is going to win this week. Over his last 10 starts, Fowler has gained an average of seven strokes against the field. Rickie’s flatstick is back and the approach game is just as great. The popular pro is ranked first in par-5 scoring and second in birdie-or-better percentage. Fowler has been posting some L O W rounds the last few tournaments. He’ll continue the hot play from L.A. and finally complete this comeback. At this point the only thing holding him back, is Sunday afternoon, and himself.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600):
When he is on, he is arguably one of the best iron players on the #PGATour. A birdie machine, Matsuyama ranks first in the field strokes-gained tee-to-green and proximity to the hole. Hideki is also first in par-4 scoring and second in strokes-gained approach. He is ready to win again.
Justin Thomas (+2000)
JT has had a very surprising year to date. MC at the US Open (second round 81), but may have broken the slump last week at the Travelers. Low risk, high reward for chalk is the best kind. And although their buddies, I am sure JT would like beat Rickie to get back on track.
Longshots:
Stephan Jaeger (+5500):
Jaeger fits the bomber mold that we have seen have success here in the past and is very solid across the board in all of the stats I considered this week. He is 33rd in Driving Distance and 25th in SG Off the Tee over the last 36 rounds. He is also 36th in SG Approach and 28th in Birdies or Better Gained. He was 5th here in Detroit last year and also has a Top 10 finish in Houston, a Top 20 at the Bermuda Championship, and an 11th place finish at the Byron Nelson.
Chris Kirk (+6000):
After winning the Honda Classic back in February, Kirk only missed one cut in his next eight starts but has since missed the cut in his last three starts — so maybe we are getting a bit of an inflated number here given his recent form. Here in Detroit, Kirk has finished 17th, 12th, and 21st. He’s also finished eighth at Silverado in Napa. Despite the recent mishaps, he is still 38th in this field for SG Approach over the last 36 rounds — and I love what he does with the short irons and wedge play, ranking second in this field for Hole Proximity from 75-100 yards, third from 100-125, and No. 1 from 125-150 yards. #DATA
Joel Dahmen (+35000):
No rhyme or reason here. I am a Joel Dahmen stan, and I will continue to throw $5 on him until he wins. $5 to win $1,755. Sign me up. Who can't root for this guy!
Top 10:
Max Homa (+220):
Smaller field, less pressure, time to make the improvements. I think Homa's game has been slipping since his wins earlier in the year, but I like to him to be around the lead come the end of Sunday.
Tom Kim (+240):
The 21-year-old has since endured some difficulties, but his T8 result at the U.S. Open may propel him to yet another memorable summer. He ranked 12th in strokes gained approach at the Travelers Championship, but his putter needs to be better if he is to grab his third win in less than a year.
Matchups:
Matsuyama (+100) over Homa
Sungjae IM (+100) over Finau
JT (+100) over Morikawa
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