Fresh off a huge win with #BrooksKoepka this weekend at the #PGAChampionship, we are onto Colonial Country Club in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Play tees off Thursday, May 25, with Sam Burns returning as the defending champion. Sandwiched in between the PGA championship and an elevated PGA Tour event hosted by Jack Nicklaus, the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge is still expected to attract a strong field. @CaesarsSportsbook lists Scottie Scheffler as the 4-1 favorite, followed by Jordan Spieth (12-1), Viktor Hovland (14-1), Tony Finau (14-1) and Collin Morikawa (16-1) in the latest 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds.
Here are my picks to win this weekend outright:
Jordan Spieth (12-1):
There are several reasons why Colonial Country Club sets up ideally for Jordan Spieth to capture his long-awaited first victory of the year this week. Let’s start with last week, where he finished T29. Entering with a wrist injury that had forced him to miss the AT&T Byron Nelson, he not only gutted his way through the week, but he improved each day by posting descending scores of 73-72-71-69. After missing the AT&T Byron Nelson, he'll want to pay back the Metroplex faithful. He's never missed in 10 tries and has a win (2016) and three 2nd place finishes.
Rickie Fowler (30-1):
In his last four appearances at this event, Fowler has placed among the top 20 once (with an average finish of 36th). Fowler survived the cut in two of his last four trips to this tournament. The last time Fowler took part in this event (in 2022), he took 57th. He put up one round within five shots of the leader his last time competing at this tournament. Despite his play at the PGA this weekend, I do believe Fowler is still on the turning point of getting back in the winners circle, sooner rather than later.
Justin Rose (30-1):
Already has one win this season and will look to add another on a track where he’s gotten it done before. Sitting at 22nd in the FedExCup Rankings, a second win would all but secure his spot in the TOUR Championship for the first time since 2019. Justin Rose has been playing some excellent golf lately. If you’re in the camp that says we should select players who were in the mix last week, then he makes a lot of sense here as a player whom you might not have been betting.
Player To Finish Top 5
Tony Finau (+330):
The trick to winning at Colonial is the ability to overpower the golf course with accuracy. One of the longest straight-ball hitters in the world is Tony Finau, who just finished in the top 5 of this event last season. The conditions weren’t very favorable last year, which caused havoc in the winning score. If this turns into a birdie fest, I can’t think of anyone outside of outright favorite Scottie Scheffler who can hang with Finau.
Player To Finish Top 10
Collin Morikawa (+280):
We haven’t heard much about Collin Morikawa this season. He isn’t playing poorly but also isn’t winning any tournaments either. Colonial sets up extremely well for his towering left-to-right shot shape and pinpoint accuracy with his irons. Contrary to Finau, I prefer Morikawa if the conditions are tougher like they were last year.
Tommy Fleetwood (+280):
The easygoing Englishman Tommy Fleetwood is on a heater these days. He has three top-10 finishes this season, and only one missed cut. Fleetwood is top 10 on Tour in Strokes Gained: From Tee to Green (SG: T2G), including fourth in around the green metrics. His top-5 finishes at the Wells Fargo and Valspar are both very favorable for the setup at Colonial, especially if the Texas winds pick up.
Player To Finish Top 20
Eric Cole (+280):
Except for a missed cut at the Wells Fargo, Eric Cole has far exceeded expectations over the last six weeks. This includes a 15th-place finish at last week’s grueling PGA Championship. Cole also finished fifth at the Mexico Open and 23rd at the Byron Nelson. Even though the weakness of his game is certainly off the tee, he has been excellent everywhere else. Cole ranks 31st in Total Strokes Gained this season, which lines up well with his stellar scoring average.
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