The four majors are over, and now there are just two tournaments remaining in the regular season. Normally at this time of year, most of the top players are resting up for the playoffs, letting the lesser guys battle it out for playoff spots and Tour cards. This year, under new rules, some things are different. The top 125 finishers in the FedExCup Standings still get to keep their Tour cards, but now only the top 70 get into the playoffs, which begin with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. After that, the top 50 advance to the BMW Championship and top 30 to the Tour Championship. There are some huge names on the outside of the top 70 looking in.
A struggling Justin Thomas is in the field this week, which the bookmakers, and PGA Tour happy....but gamblers, not so much.
There’s no better venue for a pressure packed week than TPC Twin Cities. The par 71 is an amateur’s worst nightmare. Fifteen holes have significant water in play and the remaining space is covered by 72 bunkers. The course is a ball strikers paradise. Set at 1,000 feet above sea level, the 7,431-yard layout will play shorter than the card. Elevation adds about two percent of extra carry to your ball flight.
Here are the top 10 odds on favorites:
Cameron Young +1400
Sungjae Im +1600
Tony Finau +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Emiliano Grillo +2200
Justin Thomas +2200
Sepp Straka +2500
Ludvig Aberg +2800
Gary Woodland +3500
Adam Hadwin +3500
Picks to Win:
Justin Thomas (+2500):
Oh yeah, were doing the damn thing here. There are so many reasons not to take Thomas, who has never played this tournament before. He missed the cut in four of his past six starts, including both Opens. He does have a tie for ninth at the Travelers mixed in. I wouldn't bet the mortgage on JT this week due to his odds and recent play, and the fact that my roommate would be pissed if I am short rent for August, but I like JT to turn his game around especially with a Ryder Cup spot on the line.
Emiliano Grillo (+2500):
The 30-year-old from Argentia has shown a very high ceiling over the past few weeks, including claiming his second career PGA TOUR victory by winning the Charles Schwab Challenge. That was one of nine events in his past 12 in which he outperformed salary-based expectations. That run includes five top-15 finishes, including last week at The Open Championship.
Adam Hadwin (+3500):
Hadwin is almost a perfect fit for this golf course. If he were longer off tee, he'd be No. 1 in my picks. As it is, he's third. He gets the ball in the fairway, gets it on the green, makes putts, avoids bogeys. Hadwin also has two top-6s in the four-year history of this event.
Chez Reavie (+9000):
Reavie has shown time and again that he can compete on some longer tracks. Like here two years ago, when he tied for 11th (he was 49th last year). The veteran has made eight straight cuts on Tour and 12 of his past 13. Reavie ranks top-10 in this field over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach and top-20 in SG: Putting.
Adam Long (+15000):
Long shot....no pun intended. Long has not been playing well this year, but it's hard to ignore his success on this course: runner-up in 2020, T25 in 2021 and T16 last year. What does Long do well? He will get the ball in the fairway and he will make putts. That gives him a fighting chance to make the cut this week.
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