Every start of the PGA Tour season, "The Sentry" rolls around and I think to myself, wow what a weird name for a tournament. Every event outside of the majors, should be some kind of "championship", "open", or "classic". @PGATour thats some fan feedback.
As the PGA Tour returns this weekend, the defending champion, Jon Rahm, will not be there. Due to a gap in coverage over the last two months, I was not able to write an article outline the deal that Rahm had taken to go to LIV, but yeah old news, he's gone, and cant defend the title. I am happy to be back breaking down the course as well as my personal picks for the weekend.
Plantation Course at Kapalua - Par 73 - 7,596 yards. Two notable names not teeing it up this week are, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas.There is no cut this week, due to a reduced field of only 59 players. Some of the stars actually in the field include world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. As well as the new format for the eight "Signature Events", the winner will receive 700 FedExCup points. The prize fund also has increased to $20 million – a bump of 25 percent from 2023 – with $3.6 million going to the winner.
Picks & Odds:
Viktor Hovland: (+900) Coming off a breakthrough major season, a FedEx Cup victory and an impressive Ryder Cup performance, Viktor Hovland’s stock is at an all-time high right now. While I have been a hate of Hovland, he continues his ascent in 2024, the Sentry Tournament of Champions is a good spot to ride the hot hand. Co Worker Jim told me weekly last year and I chose to ignore it. Switching it up for 2024 and riding with Hovland.
Patrick Cantlay: (+1200) Ranking third in strokes gained tee to green behind only Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, Cantlay's ability to plot his way around the golf course should lead to multiple wins this year. With two top-five finishes in his last four tries, Cantlay could start his trophy raising this week in Maui.
Max Homa: +1200 Homa tied for 13th at the Hero World Challenge in his last start, but before that won the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa on the DP World Tour in November. Last year in Maui, Homa tied for third. Plus, at a golf course that demands low scores to contend, Homa ranks ninth in birdie average on Tour.
Sunjae Im: (+3000) With a T5, a T8, a T13 and a scoring average of 67.67 at Kapalua, he’s clearly comfortable, but it didn’t hurt that he extinguished an extended dry spell last summer with five top 15s in last six starts worldwide. Ranked fifth in par-5 scoring. In a smaller field sets him up to pick apart the par 5s and post some low rounds.
JT Poston: (+9000) The wide fairways and landing areas at the Plantation Course will mitigate Poston's weakness off the tee while allowing his strengths of wedge play and putting to shine. With five top-10 finishes in the final nine starts of his 2023 campaign, Poston found a new gear with his scoring clubs. If this carries over into the new year, Poston should be in store for a nice outing.
Players To Fade:
Cameron Young: I’m a big fan of Cameron Young at a macro level, but I’m not in love with the spot here. Young’s iron play last season was spotty at best, and his putter left a lot to be desired. It’s paramount to be elite at one of those two skill-sets at Kapalua, and Young doesn’t checks either box.
Matt Fitzpatrick: I constantly go back and fourth on if I like Matt Fitzpatrick, I still have my concerns about the former U.S. Open champion keeping up in a track meet. Fitzpatrick is one of the biggest fallers when comparing his overall strokes gained baseline to his performance in easy scoring conditions. Players typically need to get to at least 25-under par to have a chance at victory here, a tall ask for Fitzpatrick.
