The PGA TOUR heads to Rochester, New York for the second major of the 2023 season. Oak Hill Country Club will host the 105th PGA Championship. The course looks to be measuring as a 7,394-yard par 70 with Bentgrass greens. There are three par 5s over 490 yards and two par 3s over 230 yards. Simply put, this is a big boy course. The field will be the strongest we’ll see this season, as 99 of the top 100 players in the world will be in attendance. The lone exception is Willy Z(alatoris), who is recovering from back surgery.
World No. 1 Jon Rahm and World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler top the list of notable golfers that are primed to capture the Wanamaker Trophy at the end of this weekend. Scheffler enters the second major of the year on a hot streak, with a strong finish in the AT&T Byron Nelson and two victories (Phoenix Open and Players Championship). Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail?
Tiger Woods will not be playing in the PGA Championship. The 15-time major winner pulled out of the tournament on May 10. Woods had surgery on his right ankle on April 19, just over a week after the Masters, causing him to sit out as he heals from the injury.
I think this is the heaviest golf weekend I will have so far this season. There's a lot of value and a lot of contenders to win this weekend. Here are my picks to win outright.
Brooks Koepka (18-1). It’s tough not to choose the two-time PGA Champion who went back-to-back in 2018 and 2019, especially given his recent return to form at the Masters in April. He will no doubt be eager to make up for the miss at Augusta by hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy this week. Remember the scene in "Billy Madison" when Adam Sandler's character catches a dodgeball and tells the rest of the class, "now you're all in big, big trouble?" This is what I expect from Brooks "Blake" Koepka.
Keegan Bradley (65-1). Bradley, the 22nd ranked player in the world, is one of only eight players in the field to rank top 25 off the tee and on approach from 175-plus yards. He re-dedicated himself to his work last year by getting in better shape and it paid off with a win at the Zozo and a runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. He also makes for a very good option for top-20 bet or first round leader.
Cameron Smith (30-1). Cam Smith is another LIV player who has been in fine form of late, most recently taking Dustin Johnson to a playoff at LIV Tulsa. Smith is a big-game hunter, as he showed in his win at the Open Championship last year. Oak Hill presents another opportunity to put his name atop the leaderboard of the PGA Tour's best.
Patrick Cantley (18-1). Patrick Cantlay is likely the best golfer in the world currently without a major victory. Lately, Cantlay has barely even contended near the top of the leaderboard at majors, with just one top-10 finish since the start of 2020. He's been due to break through for some time now, and if he doesn't soon, he may miss his window. You may not like Patrick Cantlay for his brutal pace of play or quiet demeanor, but there is no denying that he is one of the best golfers on the planet. Currently ranked fourth in the OWGR and ninth in the FedEx Cup Standings, Cantlay is looking to claim his first win of 2023 and seventh win over the past three seasons. Accuracy is key at Oak Hill, a track with narrow fairways, thick roughs, and an abundance of hazards. This season, Cantlay ranks 18th in Driving Accuracy and eighth in GIR%.
Tony Finau (25-1). Tony Finau is another player that feels due for a major in the near future, and Oak Hill should set up pretty well for him. Finau is an elite iron player, and while he isn't massive off the tee, he shouldn't be left in the dust too severely. I am drinking the juice here, and will be sprinkling Tony.
PGA Championship – Top-5 picks
Jon Rahm (+160). Betting any player to finish top 5 in a major at +160 seems outrageous, but Rahm has an excellent chance to win this tournament. He won the Masters after spotting the field 2 shots on Thursday by doubling his 1st hole. He’s finished in the top 5 of a major 7 times in his career and his short odds to make it 8 are warranted.
Xander Schauffele (+400). Schauffele might be the best player in the world right now who has never won a major, but he’s come incredibly close before. Since 2020, he’s only missed the cut in 2 majors and his worst finish is a T-26 when he has played the weekend. He has 6 top-5 finishes in his major career and Oak Hill sets up well for his game with how critical approach shots are.
PGA Championship – Top-10 picks
Viktor Hovland (+260). Hovland had never finished in the top 10 of a major before the Open last year, which is shocking. However, in his last 2 major starts, he went T-4 and T-7, showing he can contend in the world’s biggest tournaments. He’s a pure ball-striker who should excel at Oak Hill.
Dustin Johnson (+220). Johnson is coming off a win at LIV Golf’s event in Tulsa, so he’s in good form. He’s a former U.S. Open champion who’s known to excel on difficult courses, which Oak Hill certainly is. His high ball flight and controlled fades will allow him to hold greens in tough conditions. Plus, he’s got the power to muscle shots out of the heavy rough.
PGA Championship – Matchups
Jason Day (-105) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)
I’ll fade the defending champion with just 2 top-10s this season in favor of a guy fresh off a win in Texas and 7 total top-10s. Day bounced back really well from a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and I expect that momentum to continue this week.
Xander Schauffele (+120) vs. Rory McIlroy (-135)
Fade McIlroy on a long, potentially soft course in a major championship? It’s not always the best idea, but Rory is in a little bit of a slump right now and Schauffele is, well, not. Schauffele hasn’t finished worse than T-10 in his last 4 starts and has 3 top-5s in that span.
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