Well the #Bills game is final, with a 31-7 victory over the #Broncos. I went into the game 5-8 with my picks for the weekend, and finished that game with a .500 (3-3) record:
Sunday 1pm Den vs Buf:
Dawson Knox TD - Loss
Courtland Sutton TD- Loss
Bills -8.5 - Win
Dalton Kincaid TD - Loss
Josh Allen o1.5 Pass TD's - Win
Josh Allen o41.5 Rush Yds - Win
4-5 Record 4:30 Game
Sitting at 8-11 heading into the 4:30 game over at the Linc. Here are another 6 plays I researched and will be riding with during Packers/Eagles.
u45.5 (-110)
The Eagles won 34-29 when these teams clashed back in Week 1, but both defenses have improved a ton since then. Philadelphia's rookie corners, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, along with Green Bay's rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, have emerged as some of the best players at their respective positions. Since the start of October, the Eagles lead the NFL in defensive EPA and success rate while the Packers are fourth in defensive EPA and third in dropback EPA. These teams are also first and third in the league in rushing play percentage, which will drain time off the clock. Meanwhile, the Packers will be without big-play wideout Christian Watson.
Emanuel Wilson anytime touchdown (+750)
However, there is one player available at a price that offers us value, and that’s RB2 Emanuel Wilson, who you can grab at +750. He’s only scored five touchdowns this season, but it’s key that three of those have come successively over the past three weeks. Jacobs only got the six carries in Week 18, as the team prepared for playoffs, but in the two weeks before that, we saw the backfield shared to an extent more than we’ve seen all season.The sophomore running back has done well with that usage, and he’s finished the regular season with an average of 4.9 yards per carry. He isn’t the sexiest pick, and there are obviously risks attributed to selecting the second-string running back, but on a Packers team missing strong choices at plus money, it’s Wilson and the value that he offers that gives us the best selection on Matt LaFleur’s offense.
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown (+120)
Barkley is good enough that he’ll be able to find success anyway, but if the Packers really are selling out to stop the run, then it really opens up the passing game, something that hugely benefits A.J. Brown. It’s not been a great season for Brown, who has been vocal about his unhappiness, but down the stretch, we saw him featured more. Brown didn’t play in the final week, but in the three weeks before that, he’d scored in three back-to-back games. Despite missing four games, he’s only one target from leading the team in red zone targets. He’s a crucial part of this offense, and if we do see the Packers stacking the box, then it’s Brown who is most likely to profit.
Josh Jacobs o69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jacobs ran for 84 yards (5.25 per carry) in Week 1 against the Eagles, and he rushed for 70 or more in nine of 17 games. He also yielded carries to backfield mates in four of the eight games he didn’t top the 70-yard benchmark because Green Bay was in the driver’s seat and won handedly. More to this point, Jacobs is also rested after handling just 36 carries across 82 offensive snaps over the final three weeks, including being limited to only six carries across 18 snaps in Week 18. The added rest sets Jacobs up for a full workload Sunday, and I’m anticipating him approaching 20 carries and cededing much less work to fellow backs Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks with it all on the line in Philly.
Saquon Barkley o103.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
That Week 1 matchup in Brazil set the tone for Barkley for the rest of the season. It was the first of 11 games with at least 100 rushing yards. He did go over this 103.5 total in all 11 of those contests. The Green Bay Packers were among the best-rushing defenses in the regular season, with 99.4 yards per game. However, they allowed some of the better running backs they played to go over the century mark. Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, and Joe Mixon all had at least 100 yards against Green Bay, and Aaron Jones racked up 93 as well. The Birds should be looking to get the ball into Barkley’s hands as much as possible, with Jalen Hurts just coming out of concussion protocol this week. The bruising back will get the bulk of the carries and has the ability to break off a long run to get a sizeable chunk of the 104 yards needed here.
Josh Jacobs o16.5 Rushing Attempts (-128)
With the offense (and defense) beat up, the Green Bay Packers should lean on star RB Josh Jacobs, who has logged 17+ carries in each of his last six competitive games — with exceptions being six carries in Week 18 (where the backups played the second half) and 13 carries in a 34-0 blowout win in Week 16 (he was rested early) — in an effort both to protect a banged-up Jordan Love... but also keep Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offense off the field.
Packers ML (+215)
This is a friendship bet, made strictly out of love for Uncle Tim, everyone knows that the Packers are my NFC team, when the Browns aren't in the playoffs.
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