No Aaron Judge, No Excuses: The Yankees Have Enough to Beat Tampa Bay — But Gerrit Cole Has to Set the Tone Tonight

Here we go again.

The Yankees took care of one AL East rival by absolutely dismantling the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card round, and their reward is another AL East rival waiting for them in Tampa. The Yankees and Rays open the ALDS tonight at Tropicana Field, and this is where October really starts to get interesting. Best-of-five series. A Rays team that won the division. A Yankees team coming in hot after scoring 18 runs in two games against Boston. And now we officially know New York will have to do it without Aaron Judge.

That's obviously the headline going into this series.

Judge has been left off the ALDS roster as he continues recovering from the right calf strain that has kept him out since September 16. He tried to convince the Yankees he was ready. He's been taking live at-bats and doing outfield running, but he still hasn't progressed to running the bases. At some point you have to protect the player from himself, especially when you're talking about a calf injury and a guy the Yankees are going to need if they have any plans of playing deep into October.

So Judge isn't walking through that door against Tampa.

And honestly? We just watched the Yankees prove they can win without him.

I'm obviously not going to sit here and pretend losing Aaron Judge doesn't matter. That's ridiculous. When Judge was in the lineup this season, the Yankees averaged 5.12 runs per game. Without him, that number dropped to 4.22. You're talking about removing one of the best hitters on the planet from the middle of your lineup.

But what happened against Boston should give every Yankees fan some confidence.

New York scored 18 runs in two games without Judge, and what I loved most about it wasn't necessarily the number of runs. It was how they scored them. The Yankees weren't standing at the plate waiting for somebody to hit a home run every inning. They were putting together at-bats. They were getting runners on base. They were taking what Boston's pitching gave them. They were getting contributions throughout the lineup.

That's the version of the Yankees that I think can win this series.

Ben Rice is absolutely scorching right now. Including the postseason, he's hitting .365 with seven home runs and 15 RBIs over his last 17 games. He also destroyed Tampa pitching during the regular season with seven home runs in 13 games. Cody Bellinger drove in four runs in Game 2 against Boston. George Lombard Jr. had four hits in the Wild Card round and hasn't looked remotely overwhelmed by the moment. Austin Wells has started producing runs again. Luis García Jr., Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham — this has to be a lineup-wide effort now.

Judge isn't there to bail everybody out.

And that might actually force the Yankees to continue playing the style of baseball that made them look so dangerous against Boston.

Work counts. Get on base. Move runners. Take the single when it's there. Make Tampa's starters throw pitches. Don't turn every 2-0 count with a runner on first into an attempt to hit a baseball into the Gulf of Mexico.

If the home runs come, great. They're the Yankees. They're going to hit home runs.

Just don't make that the entire offense.

Because Tampa is going to make them earn everything. The Rays went 55-26 at Tropicana Field this season and won the season series against New York 7-6. They didn't accidentally win the AL East. This is a really good baseball team, and Drew Rasmussen is probably the perfect pitcher for Tampa to throw at the Yankees in Game 1.

Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA this season and has been outstanding against New York throughout his career. The Yankees have already seen what his best stuff looks like. The last time he faced them, he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out 11 while Tampa celebrated the division title at Yankee Stadium.

If there's one thing I don't want to watch tonight, it's the Yankees chasing Rasmussen early, going down quietly and letting Tampa dictate the entire game.

Make him work.

And then give the baseball to Gerrit Cole and tell him to go be Gerrit Cole.

This is why you have an ace.

Cole finished the regular season 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA, but he's been excellent against Tampa lately, posting a 2.09 ERA over his last six starts against the Rays. This will also be his 23rd career postseason start and his first playoff appearance since Game 5 of the 2024 World Series.

I want the tone established tonight.

Go into Tampa, quiet that building down and take Game 1.

Because the Yankees have a huge opportunity with how their rotation lines up after that. Cam Schlittler is scheduled for Game 2 after what he just did to Boston — 6 1/3 scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts in his postseason debut. Max Fried just looked fantastic in Game 2 against the Red Sox. Carlos Rodón gives them another legitimate postseason starter.

That's where I think the Yankees have the advantage that can carry them through this series.

Pitching.

If Cole comes out tonight and gives them seven strong innings, suddenly Tampa is playing from behind in its own building with Schlittler coming tomorrow. If the Yankees can steal both games in Tampa, obviously you're feeling great coming back to the Bronx. Even a split puts New York in a manageable position with the series moving to Yankee Stadium.

But I really want Game 1.

There's something different about going into a five-game series and immediately taking home-field advantage away. You don't want to spend the entire series chasing Tampa. Put the pressure on them tonight.

The Rays certainly have enough offense to make that difficult.

Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero give Tampa a dangerous top of the order, and Victor Mesa Jr. is another name Yankees fans should probably get familiar with quickly. The rookie hit .355 with a 1.015 OPS in September. Tampa also has the pitching depth to make this series uncomfortable. Rasmussen gets Game 1, and Freddy Peralta, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour give Kevin Cash plenty of options behind him.

This isn't Boston.

The Rays aren't going to hand New York anything.

But I still have the Yankees winning this series in four games.

I think their starting pitching is deep enough to control this matchup, and what we saw offensively against Boston made me feel much better about surviving another round without Judge. If Rice stays hot, Bellinger keeps producing, the young guys continue looking comfortable and the Yankees maintain that patient approach at the plate, there are enough runs in this lineup to support this rotation.

And if they advance, maybe Judge gets another week to heal and suddenly you're talking about adding Aaron Judge back to a team that's already reached the ALCS without him.

We'll worry about that if we get there.

For now, it's Tampa.

And it starts with Gerrit Cole.

Give me Cole coming out tonight and shoving. Give me the Yankees grinding through at-bats against Rasmussen, scratching out enough offense and taking Game 1. Let Schlittler take the baseball in Game 2 with the Rays already feeling the pressure.

Yankees in four.

But first things first.

Go take Game 1.