We back, baby. We back!
To keep it quick and simple I am going to post my previous weeks betting record, my season record, and the link to last weeks picks: https://cubemonkeysports.wixsite.com/cubemonkeysports/post/the-nfl-is-back-week-1-preview-and-gambling-picks so no one thinks I am a fraud.
Week 1 Record: 8-8 (1-0 on MNF. Jets ML)
Side note, since it's still early, I am going to be tweaking the format of how I track the bets. I will still keep my overall weekly record, but will keep a sub tally of spread picks and O/U picks.
.500 not a bad start, had some risky plays, there were some upsets, but as my Dad always told me, scared money don't make money. And he is a gambling addict! Onto the games!
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons:
WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Packers: -120 | Falcons: +100
SPREAD: Packers -1.0 | O/U: 40.5
While the Falcons were essentially free money last week against the curse of No. 1 overall picks making their debut, they still have yet to include Kyle Pitts and Drake London in their offensive scheme and seem to just want to run the ball. Aaron Jones is hurt, Christian Watson is hurt, Romeo Doubs was limited in practice yesterday, but Jordan Love may be him. I don't trust Desmond Ridder to come out throwing. The game will come down to how well the Packers can contain Atlanta's running game.
Spread Pick: Packers -1.0
Total Pick: u40.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills:
WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Raiders: +335 | Bills: -440
SPREAD: Bills -9.0 | O/U: 47.0
I see what Vegas is trying to do here. The Bills will be making their home debut ready to erase what was a miserable performance in Monday's shocking loss. And the perfect remedy is a Raiders team that I thought could be a candidate for the worst in the league. Don't get it twisted. The Bills will win this game, but they looked liked shit against the Jets who had Zach Wilson playing. With the mistakes Josh Allen made, 9.5 is a lot of points for a Raiders team coming off a win Pornstar Jimmy under center.
Spread Pick: Raiders +9.0
Total Pick: o47
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals:
WHERE: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Ravens: +143 | Bengals: -170
SPREAD: Bengals -3.5 | O/U: 46.5
It was a perfect storm of bad for Joe Burrow last Sunday (no pun intended). Shitty weather, being banged up during the pre season (pause), getting a fat check a few days before the start of the season, and he just can't beat the Cleveland Browns. Weather shouldn't be a concern in Week 2 and the Ravens will need to once again figure out their rushing attack on the fly with J.K. Dobbins out for the season after his Achilles. I cant see Burrow having back to back bad weeks, especially since last week was statically his worst game of his career. I look forward to the Stavros Halkias reaction video come Sunday.
Spread Pick: Bengals -3.5
Total Pick: o46.5
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions:
WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Seahawks: +185 | Lions: -225
SPREAD: Lions -5.0 | O/U: 47.0
I didn't think the Seahawks were great last year, I thought they had a weak schedule and a lot of hype surrounding Geno Smith and what he was doing. Good for him, he got paid, and lost to the Rams Week 1. Aidan Hutchinson is a fucking BEAST, and the way Geno Smith screamed when Aaron Donald broke through the line, I think Hutchinson does the same. Seahawks also has two of their starting linemen hurt. The Lions have a promising squad but offensive coordinator Ben Johnson likes to control the clock by establishing the run and throwing short which will make it tough for them to blow out opponents. Expect the Seahawks' explosive offense to keep them in this contest and grab the away team with the points. Still love you, @JaredGoff
Spread Pick: Seattle +5
Total Pick: o47
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans:
WHERE: NRG Stadium (Houston)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Colts: +100 | Texans: -120
SPREAD: Texans -1.5 | O/U: 40.0
Battle of the rookie QB's. Houston's C.J. Stroud and Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson. The two 21-year-olds square off looking for their first career NFL win. Richardson was easily the most impressive rookie quarterback in Week 1. That statement probably won't surprise anyone today, but if you posed that same question to college football fans seven months ago, you'd have been laughed out of the building.
Spread Pick: Colts +1.5 (sprinkle ML)
Total Pick: o40
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars:
WHERE: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -190 | Jaguars: +158
SPREAD: Chiefs -3.5 | O/U: 51.0
Why do we just assume the Chiefs' offense will look better in Week 2? Hell, why do we assume Travis Kelce (knee/potentially dating Taylor Swift) is even going to play? Yeah, Chris Jones is signed and back for the Chiefs so I guess that helps. Trevor Lawrence deserves a lot of credit for where the Jags have gotten to a Divisional Round appearance last year and a 1-0 start in 2023. If this game can stay close, I'm riding the Clemson avatar, No. 15.
Spread Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Total Pick: o51
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Bears: +128 | Buccaneers: -140
SPREAD: Buccaneers -2.5 | O/U: 41.5
Just avoid betting this line at all costs and thank me later. The Bears looked awful against GB, Chase Claypool is essentially a 6'4 cone on the field with 0 effort. But Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense is not going to prey on turnovers the same way they did against the Vikings. I trust Baker to take care of the ball, read the Bears defense, adjust to their signs, and win the game.
Spread Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Total Pick: u41.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans:
WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Chargers: -140 | Titans: +118
SPREAD: Chargers -2.5 | O/U: 45.5
I have trouble believing Justin Herbert eats Subway, I think they just gave him a fuck ton of money to advertise, but I digress. Deandre Hopkins is of course a risk to bully his way to a ton of catches, but saying the Chargers' pass defense was miserable ignores the why. I am, however, worried about a run defense that historically stinks under head coach Brandon Staley, but the lack of snaps for Derrick Henry felt suspicious even if Titans head coach Mike Vrabel vehemently dismissed any issues. Everyone on the defensive side of the ball is still healthy, and offensively the Chargers shouldn't struggle to move the ball. It's just a bet on talent if you're taking the Chargers, although the coaching disadvantage was glaring Sunday and probably will look equally lopsided Week 2. I don't feel good about it, but I trust Justin Herbert way more than I do Ryan Tannehill.
Spread Pick: Charges -2.5
Total Pick: o45.5
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals:
WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Giants: -210 | Cardinals: +175
SPREAD: Giants -4.0 | O/U: 39.5
This is pretty easy to me. I wish this would have been in New York, but the Giants are a much better team even if they didn't show up Sunday night. Daniel Jones can wallop some bad teams, and while Joshua Dobbs kept the Cardinals close against the Commanders, Washington is a level below their NFC East rival. I'd happily throw this in a teaser as well. I said last week I expect the Cardinals to play spoiler all season, and their defense looked good last week. But you can't expect the Giants to follow up a 40-0 loss stinker and not blow out Arizona.
Spread Pick: Giants -4
Total Pick: o39.5
San Fransisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams:
WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: 49ers: -355 | Rams: +278
SPREAD: 49ers -7.0 | O/U: 45.0
I don't even think the Rams are that good, but clearly the combination of head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford automatically makes them better than a half dozen teams, and they thoroughly trounced Seattle in Week 1, which has to mean at least something. The Niners are probably one of the best teams in the NFL and they've historically owned this matchup since McVay arrived in Los Angeles. But even without Cooper Kupp, the Rams' offense is capable of moving the ball and should at least keep it within one score. I'm trying not to overreact from Week 1, but in the case of the Rams I will make an exception.
Spread Pick: Rams +7
Total Pick: u45
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos:
WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Commanders: +162 | Broncos: -195
SPREAD: Broncos -3.5 | O/U: 38.5
This is another stay-away game for me. I was genuinely surprised the Broncos could find a way to lose to the Raiders. Head coach Sean Payton was supposed to come in and win these kinds of games automatically. I think the Broncos are a more talented team than Washington, and I do believe their defense will give quarterback Sam Howell fits. But I have absolutely zero read on Denver's offense, to the point where I could be genuinely convinced of any sort of outcome. Love yourself more than putting action on this contest.
Spread Pick: Denver -3.5
Total Pick: u38.5
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys:
WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Jets: +328 | Cowboys: -430
SPREAD: Cowboys -8.5 | O/U: 38.5
I'm not going to think too hard about this either. The Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the league and even with Aaron Rodgers providing his best Yoda impression from The Last Jedi for Zach Wilson, he's going to be running for his life. Something about this makes me think the Jets aren't as fucked as everyone thinks.
Spread Pick: Jets +8.5 (sprinkle ML bc of their defense)
Total Pick: u 38.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots:
WHERE: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
MONEYLINE: Dolphins: -165 | Patriots: +140
SPREAD: Dolphins -3.0 | O/U: 46.5
New England's defense is one of the best in the league. I am going off the eye test(I wear glasses) but fairly percent certain that's the case. The only issue is they'll face three of the top five-ish offenses in the league by Week 4 (the Jets being the exception next week).
The Patriots are one of the few teams that I think have the personnel to at least manage the explosiveness of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa has only averaged 19.5 offensive points in his four career starts against the Patriots. I say all of that, and yet I'm not touching any part of this game. There's too many outcomes I think are possible. But if I were to bet this game.
Spread Pick: Patriots +3.0
Total Pick: u46.5