Well we made it. College Football has been a tease and Thursday Night Football gave us our fix. My close personal friend, Jared Goff, took down the powerhouse Kansas City Chiefs who were without Travis Kelce, but if you had a big brain like myself, you faded Uncle Tim, and took Lions +6.5, ML, and then had this hammer +1700 parlay:
But were onto the first full slate of #NFL games for the foreseeable future, by the time the season is over I will probably be fired from my day job. Might as well bet big and win big! Here are my bets for the Sunday slate of week 1. I am writing this as I am watching Texas (ML +222) lead Alabama 34-24 to continue the hot streak. To preface I may not bet ever game, but I will give who I like. I will follow up tomorrow morning with my actual card, lines may change, picks may be added, but this is what I like as of now.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons:
WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Panthers: +158 | Falcons: -190
SPREAD: Falcons -3.5 | O/U: 40.0
I dont trust either of these QB's. Bryce Young...ya ya ok buddy, another Alabama small QB in the NFL that has the hype, yeah he was the #1 pick, but the Panthers still suck. Im still not bought in on Desmond Ridder, and everyone hoots and hollers about Kyle Pitts, but if your QB cant hit him in the hands, or in stride, how good is he really? This is a weak ass bet but give me the Falcons ML because both these teams sucks. The real play is the under.
Official bet: Falcons ML/u40.0
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens:
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Texans: +360 | Ravens: -480
SPREAD: Ravens -9.5 | O/U: 43.5
You know who the Ravens need? "Joe Flacco YO" - Stavros Halkias voice. This is the definition of a trap game. Yes, Lamar signed and is back for Baltimore, yes they have some new toys at the WR position, but I think this is a lot of points. I took Baltimore as a longshot to win the Super Bowl, but call me crazy, CJ Stroud and a complete new team in Houston, Baltimore has no tape on them, first game of the season. I wont touch this line, but give me the over.
Official bet: o43.5
Cincinatti Bengals at Cleveland Browns:
WHERE: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Bengals: -140 | Browns: +118
SPREAD: Bengals -2.5 | O/U: 48.0
Sigh. If you have followed the blog for at least a month, you know I am a life long Cleveland Browns fan, and this is tough for me. And yeah I know, Watson is a pervert, I have said it before and I said I don't know how he got paid so much for being horny. Burrow signed his contract, congrats you're rich. This is another trap game. Burrow is 1-4 against the Browns in his career, but 1-0 against Watson and the Browns. I personally think Watson turns it back on this year, Chubb is a beast, Elijah Moore is a sleeper. Jamar Chase called them the "Elves", Myles Garret didn't like it. So I will be taking the....:
Official bet: Browns +2.5/o48
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts:
WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Jaguars: -225 | Colts: +185
SPREAD: Jaguars -4.5 | O/U: 45.5
Jacksonville enters the season as the clear favorite in the AFC South, largely because Trevor Lawrence began living up to the first round draft pick college national champion hype during the back half of 2022. Can the third-year passer continue his upward trajectory in Year 2 under Doug Pederson? Well, opening up the season against a secondary with serious question marks and alarming youth at cornerback doesn't hurt. Neither does taking the field with a legit No. 1 receiver in Calvin Ridley, whose route artistry will demoralize Indy's green cover men. Calvin Ridley gambles, I gamble...the signs.
Official Bet: Jaguars -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings:
WHERE: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Buccaneers: +185 | Vikings: -225
SPREAD: Vikings -5.0 | O/U: 46.0
The reigning NFC North champions begin the season in their comfort zone: at U.S. Bank Stadium, where they are 39-18 in the regular season since the building opened in 2016. Kevin O'Connell's offense, buoyed by a QB playing some of his best football in his mid-30s (Kirk Cousins) and a young WR duo (reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson and first-round pick Jordan Addison), should once again be the star of this year's team. It'll be up to new Vikings DC Brian Flores' unit to ensure games don't come down to the wire every week. The first test is a Bucs offense in transition, though one that has promise if the ever-erratic Baker Mayfield can limit the turnovers. Woke up feeling DANGEROUS.
Official bet: Bucs +5
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints:
WHERE: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Titans: +126 | Saints: -150
SPREAD: Saints -3.0 | O/U: 41.5
But the Big Dog (Derrick Henry) doesn't traditionally eat in Week 1. Here are Henry's combined rushing numbers from his previous seven season openers: 109 rushes for 394 yards (3.6 per) and one touchdown. Not exactly production fit for a King. That said, New Orleans was gashed by the run in numerous games last season, including the opener, when rival Atlanta racked up 201 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. What happens when the stoppable force meets the movable object? The home team wins. Carr wears make up.
Official bet: Saints -3
San Fransisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers:
WHERE: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: 49ers: -140 | Steelers: +118
SPREAD: 49ers -2.0 | O/U: 41.5
Nick Bosa, now rich. Kenny Pickett, great flow. A clash of the titans. TJ Watt vs Glock Purdy. This is no knock on the Steelers, who are clearly trending in the right direction. The reigning NFC West champion 49ers are just a little better on both sides of the ball. If Brock Purdy has an off day, it's easy to see Mike Tomlin's group taking full advantage of miscues and pulling off the upset. I don't think Kyle Shanahan would be sending Purdy out there if he weren't convinced the QB can play efficiently enough to get the job done, much like he did last season. Sorry Neef.
Official bet: Steelers +2.0/ML
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders:
WHERE: FedExField (Landover, Md.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Cardinals: +260 | Commanders: -335
SPREAD: Commanders -7.0 | O/U: 38.0
The Cardinals are tanking. Nothing matters for them right now except losing. I think they will somehow weirdly cover all season. But not week 1. Arizona opens the season with a 2,300-mile road trip to FedExField. Don't think anybody will be taking the bus. But what can we expect from a stripped-down Cardinals roster in Jonathan Gannon's head-coaching debut? Well, the Commanders' calling card these days is a ferocious defensive line. In related news, Arizona's O-line projects as something between turnstile and TURN-OFF-THE-GAME. Washington kicks off the post-Daniel Snyder era with a rollicking beatdown in front of its rejuvenated fan base.
Official bet: u38.0
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears:
WHERE: Soldier Field (Chicago)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Packers: +100 | Bears: -120
SPREAD: Bears -1.0 | O/U: 41.5
The days of Aaron Rodgers owning Bears fans are officially over. The days of Jordan Love "owning" the Bears, are yet to be seen. Chicago fans have dreamed of this day for decades: Starting a season with fewer question marks at QB than Green Bay. The Aaron Rodgers-less NFC North is wide open for the taking, and Justin Fields now has the playmakers at his disposal to succeed the four-time MVP as the top dog in the division. But in this back-and-forth battle between bitter rivals, it's Chicago's defense that comes up big at the end. Rookie Tyrique Stevenson carries his solid offseason into Week 1, as he and the rest of the Bears' rising secondary spoil Jordan Love's second career start to begin a new era in the North. I think this will be a close game, potentially a shoot out, but with a point as the line, I have only one choice.
Official bet: Bears -1/o41.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos:
WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Raiders: +140 | Broncos: -165
SPREAD: Broncos -3.5 | O/U: 43.0
Broncos Country.....lets ride. The Broncos might be favored, but rolling with Russell Wilson feels like the riskier move right now, even with Sean Payton on the sideline. Josh McDaniels should be able to run his offense with Jimmy Garoppolo exactly how he wants to in Week 1, before the chaos of the season has had a chance to muck up the plan. There's also the talent advantage Vegas will have at the skill positions with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs on the field, especially if Jerry Jeudy doesn't play for Denver.
Official bet: Raiders +3.5
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers:
WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Dolphins: +135 | Chargers: -160
SPREAD: Chargers -3.0 | O/U: 51.0
This may be one of the best games of the weekends. My prediction here comes down to health for two teams that seem to be evenly matched. The Dolphins are heading into Week 1 worse off than the Chargers in that regard, which has me leaning toward the Bolts at home. But I will go with the QB with the better flow, and the better arm.
Official bet: Chargers -3.0
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots:
WHERE: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Eagles: -190 | Patriots: +158
SPREAD: Eagles -3.5 | O/U: 44.5
This is one of the week 1 lines that may zero sense. Eagles came off a Super Bowl appearance, Patriots don't even know how good or bad Mac Jones is. But I know Mac Jones is bad. The Eagles' size and depth up front should pose problems for New England's run game, putting too much pressure on Mac Jones' shoulders. Quick passes and a heavy dose of 12 personnel could help the Patriots hang around, but they'll be throwing jabs against a team that thrives on landing haymakers. While I expect New England to be feisty this year, not even an offseason worth of game planning from Bill Belichick. I feel like this is a steal of a line but I guess Vegas always knows.
Official bet: Eagles -3.5
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks:
WHERE: Lumen Field (Seattle)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Rams: +185 | Seahawks: -225
SPREAD: Seahawks -5.0 | O/U: 46.0
Geno Smith, they wrote him off, he didn't write back. The Rams are in shambles since they have won the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford has said he can't connect with his teammates because they're nose deep in their phones. They traded Jalen Ramsey in the offseason, Aaron Donald will be moved at some point this season. Sean McVay is already thinking about being in the booth and off the sideline. Similar to the Cardinals, I can't see the Rams being good this season, let alone covering. Pete Carroll improves to 6-0 at home in season openers.
Official bet: Seattle -5.0
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants:
WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, NFL+, Telemundo, Universo
MONEYLINE: Cowboys: -170 | Giants: +143
SPREAD: Cowboys -3.5 | O/U: 45.0
Oooooooooooh Sunday night *Carrie Underwood theme song*. Ah week 1 Sunday Night Football in Dallas. Cowboys/Giants. Danny Dimes vs Dak Prescott. Two QB's who can play well, but also everyone can hate. Daniel Jones is coming off a proven season in which he showed he call ball and lead a team. Dak Prescott.....well he's coming off a training camp in which every clip he threw an interception and his teammates chirped him. I want to take the Giants, who should be plenty motivated to make a statement at home in prime time. And all the optimistic quotes that have been coming out of Dallas over the past few months make me a bit wary, frankly, of a Week 1 faceplant by the Cowboys. But I have to go with the more talented roster and "quarterback".
Official bet: THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS +3.5