NCAAB Plays Of The Days

Might fuck around and win all my bets today:

Starting with....

Bryant -7 (-110)

Bryant covered in both regular-season games against Maine, keeping their shot totals down by dominating the glass. In Bryant’s 81-55 win, the Bulldogs enjoyed a +21 rebounding edge, limiting Maine to 53 field goal attempts. In the 80-72 win, Bryant had a +8 rebounding edge, including +6 on the offensive glass, and the Black Bears only had 56 field goal attempts. Bryant is the top rebounding team in the conference, and Maine is the last, and that gap should help the Bulldogs cover this matchup for a third straight time.

Yale -7.5 (-110)

The Yale Bulldogs rolled through the Ivy League regular season with a 13-1 record. They also defeated and covered the spread twice this season against the Princeton Tigers. Princeton Tigers likely won't end that trend either; its offense is inconsistent, and the defense will have difficulties with Yale's big three of John Poulakidas, Nick Townsend, and Bex Mbeng. Yale is 6-4-0 ATS in their previous 10, and I'm betting they cover the spread for the third time this season against the Tigers.

Michigan St. (-165)

Michigan State is shooting 36% from deep and averaging 7.8 3-pointers over its last six games, including a 7-for-15 day from beyond the arc in the win over the Ducks on Friday. That combo of “Three and D” is a proven formula for postseason victories. Hitting from outside is a big reason why MSU won the last meeting with Wisconsin on March 2, earning a 71-62 victory with a strong second-half effort on both ends of the floor. Game models are split on which team advances to the tournament final. All call for a very close game, with margins as slim as one point. That’s why I’m siding with the moneyline price. Michigan State’s defense, depth, and now dangerous perimeter play is pushing MSU well beyond the rest of the Big Ten.

Norfolk State -2 (-110)

While the S.C. State defense is the best in the conference (71.9 points allowed per game) and has been what’s made them a tough out in the MEAC this year, Norfolk State’s defense hasn’t been far behind. The Spartans are allowing the second-fewest PPG in conference play (72.1) and the lowest field goal percentage (43.8%). Ultimately, I think the crowd and Brian Moore Jr.’s scoring prowess will be the difference in a game featuring two clashing styles between fairly equally-matched programs.

Tennessee +5 (-110)

The Tigers have the second-best offense in the country per KenPom but Tennessee has the top-rated defense and held them to 53 points on 31 FG% when these teams previously clashed at Neville Arena in January. Poor backcourt play has sent Auburn packing early in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last few years. It looked like they had fixed those problems this season but those issues cropped up yesterday against Ole Miss with Auburn turning the ball over 14 times and shooting 6-21 from deep. The Tigers held on for a 62-57 win but it was a shaky performance and they didn't come close to covering as 13-point favorites. They also lost their final two games of the regular season and have looked very beatable lately. Auburn has a terrific inside-outside game but the Vols are 18th in the country in opponent 2PT% (46.1%) and second in opponent 3PT% (27.7%). That elite defense and physicality will help them keep things close here.

Dartmouth +5 (-110)

The Dartmouth Big Green and Cornell Big Red split their season series with two blowouts, but Saturday's neutral court matchup should be much closer. Dartmouth boasts an elite three-point defense that will be tested by a fast-playing and big-scoring Cornel squad heavily reliant on the triple. The Big Green offense can be inconsistent, but the Big Red defense is just as inconsistent. I'm betting the Dartmouth perimeter defense, aided by the neutral court, stymies the Cornel snipers, and the Big Green covers the spread. 

I will add to my card later on depending on the results of the early games.