My 2026 MLB Predictions: Final Standings, Pennant Winners, and Who I Think Wins the World Series

Young Horn
2 minutes ago
5 min read

The 2026 season is here. Technically, the regular season began last night with Yankees-Giants on Netflix, and the full traditional Opening Day slate rolls today, March 26.

So this is the cleanest moment to do what baseball fans love most: act extremely confident about something that will absolutely look stupid by July.

These are my predicted final standings for every division, plus my picks for the AL pennant, NL pennant, and World Series winner. The order is my projection; the context underneath is based on current rosters, injuries, and Opening Day expectations.

American League East

Yankees — 93-69
Blue Jays — 90-72
Red Sox — 87-75
Orioles — 83-79
Rays — 77-85

This is the toughest division for me. Toronto still has a strong core with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, and newcomer Kazuma Okamoto in the lineup, while New York starts with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Max Fried, with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón expected back after opening the year on the shelf.

I’m taking the Yankees because Judge is still the best everyday player in the league, Fried raises their floor immediately, and I think getting Cole and Rodón back gives them the most second-half upside in the division. Toronto feels like a real playoff team again, and Boston’s pitching-heavy makeover around Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez makes the Red Sox very dangerous too.

American League Central

Tigers — 91-71
Guardians — 85-77
Royals — 83-79
Twins — 79-83
White Sox — 66-96

Detroit is my pick here pretty comfortably. The Tigers are already viewed as division favorites entering Opening Day, and the rotation led by Tarik Skubal with Framber Valdez joining him gives them the kind of one-two punch that can flatten a division race.

Cleveland is still annoying in all the ways Cleveland is always annoying, and José Ramírez remains the engine there. Kansas City has enough talent to hang around. But the Tigers feel like the most balanced team in the division and the club best built to win 90-plus games.

American League West

Mariners — 95-67
Rangers — 87-75
Astros — 82-80
Angels — 75-87
Athletics — 72-90

Seattle is my favorite in the AL. The public and staff projections around the Mariners are extremely bullish, and I get it: Julio Rodríguez is still the centerpiece, and the rotation depth remains one of the sport’s biggest advantages. One fan/staff prediction roundup had Seattle as the clear AL West favorite and even a common AL pennant pick, with a median win total of 93.

Houston still has enough credibility to make me nervous about this pick, but the Astros’ own local preview makes clear how much of their season depends on pitching health beyond Hunter Brown and on reviving an offense that slipped last year.

National League East

Mets — 92-70
Phillies — 90-72
Braves — 86-76
Nationals — 74-88
Marlins — 68-94

This division should be vicious, but I’m going with the Mets. The case is simple: they’re healthy enough right now, they added a lot of talent, and the Braves are opening the season with major rotation problems. One New York preview noted that projection systems see the race as very tight among the Mets, Phillies, and Braves, but gave the Mets a slight edge because of their roster state and Atlanta’s injuries.

The Mets’ Opening Day lineup features Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien, and Francisco Alvarez, and Freddy Peralta gives them a high-end arm to open the season.

Philadelphia is close enough that I would not be shocked if this pick is wrong. Atlanta still has too much talent to bury, but starting the year with major pitching absences matters over six months.

National League Central

Cubs — 88-74
Brewers — 84-78
Pirates — 81-81
Reds — 78-84
Cardinals — 74-88

The Cubs are my pick because they still look like the most complete team in the division, and even outside Chicago coverage, there’s broad expectation that this should be their year to take the Central. One MLB projection piece explicitly picked the Cubs to end their full-season division-title drought, and another Nationals preview noted Chicago is aiming for more after an NLDS loss and key offseason changes including Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera.

Milwaukee is the team I trust most to hang around because the Brewers always seem to turn chaos into 85 wins. Pittsburgh is the fun wild card here because Paul Skenes can change the entire feel of a season, but even a Pirates-friendly preview still pegged them around .500 entering the year.

National League West

Dodgers — 101-61
Padres — 90-72
Diamondbacks — 82-80
Giants — 79-83
Rockies — 61-101

I am not overthinking this. The Dodgers are still the Dodgers. Their rotation talent is absurd, they’re coming off another title, and the consensus around the division remains overwhelmingly pro-Los Angeles. Multiple season-prediction roundups had the Dodgers as the clear NL West favorite and one of the most common World Series picks.

Arizona looks more like a Wild Card fringe team than a division winner right now; one season preview even cited ESPN projecting them at 81-81. San Diego is the one team I could see making this interesting, but local coverage still points to real rotation uncertainty even with optimism around the roster overall.

My playoff field

AL division winners: Yankees, Tigers, Mariners AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rangers

NL division winners: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers NL Wild Cards: Phillies, Padres, Braves

My pennant picks

American League champion: Mariners National League champion: Dodgers

Seattle is my AL pick because I trust the rotation most, and Julio Rodríguez still feels like the kind of superstar who can define a postseason. The Dodgers are my NL pick because they simply have too much high-end talent to pick against over a full playoff run.

My World Series pick

Dodgers over Mariners in 6

That is the boring pick, and I know it. But boring isn’t the same thing as wrong. The Dodgers still have the sport’s most unfair roster, and until somebody actually knocks them out, I’m not going to pretend I’m smarter than the obvious answer.

If you want the safest summary of all this, it’s this:

I think the AL East becomes a three-team war.
I think the Tigers finally take the Central.
I think the Mariners are the best team in the American League.
I think the Mets-Phillies-Braves race is going to be a knife fight.
I think the Dodgers are still the sport’s final boss.

And now that I’ve written all of that down, one of these divisions will absolutely be won by a team I put third.

That’s baseball.