Yesterday the news broke that Yankees Ace, and 2023 AL Cy Young Winner, Gerrit Cole, will be undergoing a "precautionary" MRI on his right elbow. Pain. Pain. Pain. Since signing his monster contract to join the Yankees, Gerrit Cole was the picture of both dominance and durability, more than living up to the largest contract bestowed on a starting pitcher in baseball history.
Cole, 33, has not missed significant time due to injury since 2016, when posterior inflammation in his elbow limited him to 16 starts. In six full seasons since, he has tallied between 196 and 326 strikeouts, the latter coming in 2019, when a dominant season for the Houston Astros preceded the Yankees signing him to a nine-year, $324 million deal.
"Cole will receive multiple opinions on the status of his elbow, and the Yankees don’t expect to announce a prognosis today or even tomorrow", Bryan Hoch tweeted yesterday.
If the Gerrit Cole news wasn't enough to scare Yankee fans, add Aaron Judge to the New York Yankees' list of stars suddenly dealing with injuries. Judge told reporters this morning that he underwent an MRI on his abdominal area and said the test did not show any structural damage. The five-time All-Star outfielder said he won't swing a bat until at least later in the week but added that he hopes to be ready for Opening Day. Judge, 31, missed nearly two months last season after suffering a toe injury running into the wall at Dodger Stadium. He returned to hit 18 home runs with a .966 OPS over 57 games, but said earlier in spring training that the toe will require "constant maintenance."
I will defend Aaron Judge until the end of time, but I have had enough with the injuries. Giancarlo Stanton, another Yankee slugger who has struggled to stay on the field during his time in pinstripes, decided to shed some weight and muscle and come into camp more slender and flexible. Judge can't expect to move to Centerfield for a full season if his big toe is going to need "constant maintenance".
The Yankees recorded the third-most days missed to injury among teams last season, trailing only the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Yankees are off to a similarly snakebitten start to the spring. While young utility player Oswald Peraza has already been shut down for at least six weeks after suffering a shoulder injury.
If Cole was to get shut down for the start of the season, or an extended period of time, this is where the Yankees stand with the rest of their rotation.
The first season of Carlos Rodon’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Yankees played out in disastrous fashion. After a dominant two-year run between the White Sox and Giants from 2021-22, Rodon was limited by injuries in 2023, logging just 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and yielding a grisly 6.85 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that both trended heavily in the wrong direction (22.4% and 9.8%, respectively — down from 33.9% and 7.1% in the two seasons prior).
A strained left rotator cuff limited southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. to a near-identical slate of 63 1/3 frames in 2023. He’s broken out with a pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns over the two preceding seasons. While Cortes maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, he became even more fly-ball heavy, inducing grounders at a minuscule 26% clip. He saw his HR/9 mark spike from 0.91 the year prior to 1.56 in 2023. Cortes didn’t see a disproportionate number of his fly-balls leave the yard (just 11%), but the sheer volume of balls in the air worked against him both at home (1.45 HR/9) and on the road (1.73 HR/9).
The Yankees picked up Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract this offseason to help solidify the rotation, but he’s coming off an injury-marred season of his own. Stroman was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a strong first few months of the ’23 season before being rocked in July and placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. While rehabbing, he was diagnosed with fractures in his rib cartilage that further slowed his return to the mound. He made it back for four appearances late in the season but didn’t pitch particularly well. After carrying a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 starts, Stroman pitched just 18 more innings on the season and was lit up for 26 runs (22 earned) in that time.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt finished second on the team with 32 starts and 159 innings pitched, though he turned in back-of-the-rotation results due in large part to his own susceptibility to home runs. Schmidt looks like he can at least be an innings eater this season, but he’s yet to have the same type of MLB success that any of his rotationmates has enjoyed in the past. There’s surely hope within the organization that the former top prospect can take a step forward, but his ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be even more pivotal if it’s determined that Cole has any type of notable injury.
The mere possibility of an injury to Cole will rekindle speculation regarding free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom have been tied to the Yankees at various points in the offseason. The Yankees reportedly made a five-year offer to Snell before pivoting to sign Stroman. The two sides have remained in touch with Snell, in particular, but a match has looked like a long shot given the massive tax implications that come with signing either lefty. The Yankees are a third-time luxury offender and are already in the highest tier of luxury-tax penalization. That means in addition to any actual salary for the upcoming season, they’ll pay a 110% tax on any additional contract’s average annual value. A $25MM AAV would come with a $27.5MM tax hit. A $30MM would carry a $33MM hit — and so on.
Side note, I hate taxes, and the government. But that's a blog for another time.