After a rough weekend of gambling I stand before you a humbled man with nothing else to lose, and very little to gain (due to the $47 remaining in my Caesars account). Shout out Texas (2.5), Bengals (-7), and Jets ML for keeping me alive because ya boi is DOWN BAD. Maybe I should've listened to Uncle Timmy and rode with more of the Sunday DAWGS (Lions, Jags, Seahawks).
So lets win us some money tonight and get into the picks:
Locks:
Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown (-105):
The Ravens are among the more generous defenses in football based on points allowed per game (22.9, T-21st) and are 23rd in red zone touchdowns allowed by percentage (61.3%). His slow start to 2022 aside, Kamara has always had a nose for the end zone, as he’s scored 70 touchdowns over 79 games in his career.
Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown (+160):
Over his career, Jackson is also averaging 77.8 rushing yards per game when playing under a roof. This team was already lacking pass-catching talent, and the loss of both wideout Rashod Bateman and possibly Andrews is massive. The run game is also in trouble with personnel and having to face the Saints’ rush defense. Jackson will have to do more than usual, and that could mean creating on the ground due to an inexperienced receiver corps — especially when the yards get tough inside the 20. Hopefully he doesn't shit his pants though.
Longshots:
Saints ML (+110)
I have seen the Saints between +100 to +115 ML depending on the book you use, or when you caught the line. Despite having a mini bye off the win over Tampa Bay last Thursday, Baltimore’s offense has some question marks at key positions. Top receiver Rashod Bateman is expected to sit out Week 9. RB Gus Edwards is questionable with a hamstring injury, while tight end Mark Andrews is nursing both shoulder and ankle injuries. I am backing the Saints as home DAWGS.
Alvin Kamara u61.5 rushing yards (-115)
While it’s true that Kamara has gone over 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games, he’s exceeded that plateau by a total of only three yards in two of those contests. He’s also faced some SUS defenses in that span, and the Ravens will be the best one he’s taken on in 2022 based on rush yards allowed per game to running backs (80.9). I also believe Kamara will be used more in the passing game.
Parlay:
Kamara TD, Kamara u61.5 rushing yards, Kamara o36.5 receiving yards (+625):
I dont want to call this a L O C K, but Kamara has been heating up and all of these should hit, however I am nervous about the rushing yards. Lets eat a W!
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