MLB Rotation Rankings 2026: Mets Make Their Move, Yankees Are Scrambling, and the Cy Young Race Is Already Violent

If lineups win weekends, rotations win summers.

That’s always been true, but it feels even truer heading into this season. The official MLB.com staff rankings have the Dodgers, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers, Pirates, Yankees, Brewers, Blue Jays, and Mets as the top 10 pitching staffs in baseball, with the Dodgers at No. 1 and the Mets squeezing in at No. 10.

That’s a good baseline. But once you account for actual Opening Day health, role clarity, and which staffs have the best chance to look a lot different by June, the order gets a little more interesting.

So here’s my version of the top 10 rotations heading into the season.

1. Dodgers

This is still the scariest collection of arms in the sport. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Emmet Sheehan, and that is the kind of group that makes the rest of the league mutter under its breath. The obvious concern is health and workload management, because Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, and even Yamamoto each come with usage questions. But the top-end talent is overwhelming, and the Dodgers also upgraded the bullpen by adding Edwin Díaz.

This is the baseball version of rich people getting richer and then pretending they still understand struggle.

2. Mariners

Seattle is probably the deepest pure rotation in baseball, even if I still give the Dodgers the overall crown because of star power. Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller as the top starters, and there really isn’t a soft landing spot in there for opposing lineups. The Mariners also remain one of the smartest pitching-development organizations in the sport, which is why they keep ending up in these conversations.

If you want the least fun possible assignment as a hitter, it might be getting Seattle four times in ten days.

3. Tigers

Detroit at No. 3 and honestly, I’m comfortable with it. The Tigers’ projected rotation is Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander, and Casey Mize, which gives them one of the best one-two punches in the game and a lot more veteran stability than last season’s pitching chaos experiment. Skubal-Valdez pairing as one of the best in baseball.

Also, let’s be honest: Tarik Skubal is a HAUS. He’s the defending AL Cy Young favorite in the betting markets after a season with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 31 starts, and if somebody wants to call him the best pitcher in baseball instead of second-best behind Skenes, I’m not throwing a drink at them.

4. Phillies

MLB.com had Philadelphia third, and the case is strong: Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Andrew Painter is a playoff-caliber five, and the bullpen got nastier with Jhoan Duran. The one giant variable is Wheeler’s return from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, but MLB.com noted the reports from camp have been encouraging. Painter is the X-factor because his ceiling is ridiculous and he no longer feels like a permanent future tense.

This is a very “if the adults stay healthy, and the wunderkind pops, good luck everybody” sort of staff.

5. Red Sox

Boston belongs here because the front office clearly decided it was done pretending “maybe internal improvement” was a full plan. Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suárez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, and Connelly Early, while the broader staff-ranking article used Johan Oviedo in that last bucket before the final Opening Day decision. Either way, the point is the same: Crochet now has real support. MLB.com also noted FanGraphs projected Boston to lead the majors in pitching WAR.

And yes, I’m with you on the award take: Garrett Crochet is my AL Cy Young pick. Skubal is the safer answer, and the favorite for a reason, but Crochet has the stuff, the role, and the statistical runway to take this if he gets the innings.

6. Mets

This is the team I’m highest on relative to the official list. MLB.com had the Mets 10th overall, but that undersells how much Freddy Peralta changes their ceiling. The projected rotation is Freddy Peralta, David Peterson, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, and Kodai Senga, and the Mets’ own trade announcement was blunt: Peralta gave the rotation an “instant boost of credibility” after New York’s starters ranked 27th in ERA from mid-June to the end of last season. The trade article also noted Peralta had a 2.70 ERA in 33 starts last year and has averaged 32 starts and 172 innings over the last three seasons.

I think Freddy Peralta is finishing top three in the NL Cy Young race. That’s not just because the Mets needed him. It’s because he gives them exactly what they were missing: a legitimate top-of-the-rotation strikeout arm who can pitch like an ace for a full season. If Nolan McLean takes another step, this could look way too low by May.

7. Pirates

Pittsburgh is the weirdest great rotation in baseball because the room temperature around the franchise is always “yeah but it’s still the Pirates.” Fair enough. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Jared Jones is a nasty group, especially once Jones is fully back in rhythm after Tommy John rehab. MLB.com also reminded readers that Skenes is only 23 and could still get better. That’s impolite to the rest of the sport.

For me, Paul Skenes is the NL Cy Young favorite and the pick to repeat. He has the best combination of stuff, command trajectory, and intimidation factor in the league. Every time he pitches, it feels like hitters are being asked to solve a puzzle while someone flashes high beams in their eyes.

8. Yankees

This is the hardest staff to place, because the version they’ll have in May is much scarier than the version they’ll have right away. The Yankees’ top starters as Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler, and Will Warren, but the club’s projected Opening Day rotation is currently Fried, Schlittler, Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Luis Gil being optioned to Triple-A to start the year, with Rodón expected back in late April or early May and Cole expected back in May or June. Another report noted the Yankees are even starting with a four-man rotation for the first couple weeks and sending Gil to the minors to stay stretched out.

And this is where your dark horse note lands perfectly. Cam Schlittler is a legitimate sleeper in the AL. The Yankees already trust him enough to slot him second in the Opening Day order behind Fried, and the New York Post highlighted his 1.50 spring ERA, fastball that has touched 99 mph, and his strong finish last season, including dominating his hometown Red Sox in the playoffs. If he takes another step while Cole and Rodón rehab, he’ll go from “nice story” to “how did they find another one of these?” very quickly.

9. Brewers

Milwaukee lost Freddy Peralta and still managed to stay in the top 10, which tells you everything you need to know about the Brewers’ pitching machine. Brandon Woodruff, Chad Patrick, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, and Kyle Harrison as the top starters and basically admits the Brewers get the benefit of the doubt because they always seem to develop or uncover useful pitching. That is the baseball version of a restaurant with no sign and a two-hour wait.

This group doesn’t have the clean ace certainty of the teams above it, but it does have a lot of “annoying to play every night” energy.

10. Blue Jays

Toronto still sneaks onto the list because the name value is strong enough to buy them time. Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, and Shane Bieber as the top starters in the staff rankings, while the projected lineups/rotations page notes the club’s setup is a little more fluid as it sorts through who is actually healthy and ready. The upside here is obvious if Cease clicks immediately and Bieber looks like himself again. The risk is also obvious: there are a lot of moving parts, and this could either look sharp or look very improvised by June.

This is th

e “I see the vision, but I’d like to inspect the wiring first” rotation.

A note on the Braves

Atlanta is the big omission from my top 10, and that’s mostly because the health situation is too ugly to ignore right now. The projected Opening Day rotation is Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, and José Suárez, with Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, and Joey Wentz all slated to open on the injured list. Reuters separately confirmed Strider will begin the season on the IL with a left oblique strain. If Strider comes back and looks like himself, the Braves can absolutely force their way into this list later. But right now, it would be cheating to rank the idea of them instead of the actual available staff.

A couple other sleepers I like

Beyond Schlittler, I’m watching Nolan McLean with the Mets and Bubba Chandler with the Pirates. Both staffs framed those young arms as major upside points, and when you’re talking about pitching staffs, one rookie becoming a real mid-rotation or better piece changes everything in a hurry.

If I had to sum up the landscape in one sentence, it would be this: the Dodgers have the most unfair collection of arms, the Mariners have the cleanest depth, the Mets made the most important upgrade, the Yankees are holding things together with duct tape and Schlittler optimism, and the Cy Young races already feel like a heavyweight fight between Skenes, Skubal, and Crochet, with Freddy Peralta ready to crash the NL party.