These are the days we play for. 75 and sunny in NY, MLB baseball on all day, Elite 8 of March Madness on tonight, NBA/NHL playoff push. Great day to fire off some bets, play some afternoon golf and have a couple of beeeeeeers.
Here are my MLB Plays of the Day:
NY Yankees -1.5 (+134)
The Yankees beat the Brewers 4-2 on Opening Day, and history will likely repeat itself on Saturday, with left-hander Max Fried making his Yankees debut. Fried has been one of the better pitchers in baseball, posting an ERA of 3.25 or lower in each of the past five seasons. In 2024, he ranked in the 81st percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That success should continue against Milwaukee, a team Fried is 3-0 against over the past four meetings with a 1.50 ERA.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Toronto’s bats broke out in Friday night’s 8-2 win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Anthony Santander all collected two hits in the win, and now they get a solid matchup against the Orioles’ right-hander Dean Kremer. The 29-year-old is coming off an unspectacular for the O’s. Kremer pitched to a 4.49 expected ERA, which ranked in the 25th percentile. Not surprisingly, Vladdy is one of those guys who's locked in against Kremer. The star first baseman is 10-for-28 with five dingers and two doubles in his career vs. Kremer.
Phillies/Nationals o8.5 runs (-110)
Jesus Luzardo is the Phillies' prized new possession. But for all the talent he has, he's never effectively put it all together on the bump and is coming off a season where he posted a 5.00 ERA and a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. I expect a few runs against him early in his Philadelphia debut. However, the Phillies can answer right back against Nationals righty Jake Irvin, who doesn't miss bats and gave up four earned runs in each of his outings vs. Philly in 2024.
Cleveland (+110)
Gavin Williams is a dark-horse Cy Young candidate, and while Seth Lugo is a formidable opponent on the opposite bump, I like getting Cleveland at plus money to win outright because of that matchup. The Guardians boasted a Top 5 strikeout rate as a team in 2024 while Lugo relied on pitching to contact to get through his season. Cleveland might not do a ton of damage, but it will do enough.
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