This is truly the best time of year for a sports gambler. The first week of March Madness is the best. Four straight days of constant college basketball action...I get the chills just thinking about it. Before we dive into the East region and picks, I want to start by saying FUCK YOU to the NCAA committee for hosing the Big East. Second best conference in the country according to Ken Pom. Completely ignoring the NET ranking (which they created) in favor of a UVA and Michigan state....fuck off. FYI Mountain West has a TV contract with CBS (6 teams in) and Big East is on FOX (3 teams in). Had to get that off my chest, phew know its time for the pick...LFG
Uconn vs Stetson Over 144.5 -110
What Uconn does to teams to teams is how the Allies left Berlin in '45....shambles. Uconn has so many ways they can beat you its not fair. Lets pound it low to Clingan and score in the paint, no problem. Lets drain threes from a far with Cam Spenser, no sweat. Have Tristan Newton beat you off the dribble, sheesh. Then you have Alex Karaban that does everything and you have Stephon Castle who is a feak. This team is prepped for a repeat. Now they play Stetson. Stetson loves to give up points. The Hatters conceded and average of 75.1 points per game and Uconn average 81.5 ppg. Uconn is one the most efficient teams in the country. The Huskies shoot 49.6% from the field, 5th in the country. Stetson can score as well. They average 77.5 ppg and average 9 three a game, which includes about 24.6 attempt per game. The Huskies will hang 100 but the Hatters will be able to get near 50....take the over.
FAU vs Northwestern +2.5 -110
This game is a toss up but I'm going with the team with veteran guard play and better coaching in Chris Collins and his Northwestern squad.. Yes FAU is coming off a final 4 run with Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin and big Vlad Golden but I'm going with the play maker Boo Buie. Buie has help in Barnhizer and Langborg who average double digits. Northwestern averages 8.3 three a game and attempt around 22 threes game, which is right on the number FAU concede. Even though Vlad Golden is going to be a load down low, I trust Chris Collins to slow down the games tempo and out coach Dusty May who I believe is thinking about his next job after his stint in Boca.
San Diego St -6.5 -110 vs UAB
UAB can score at will, averaging 77 ppg. However, they only average 6 three's a game so most of their most of their points comes in the paint. That is going to be a problem because the Aztecs defend like a pack of rabid animals. San Diego St. holds opponents to 30% shooting from three, 30th in the country. They also hold opponents to 23.5 FG per game, 42nd in the country. They defend the paint and its impossible to score. This team is tough and they know how win in march. PS the Aztecs get to the line at least 22 times a game and average 16 FT made per game.
Auburn vs Yale Over 140.5 -110
This game might be a track meet. Yes, Yale best chance at winning is to slow down the Tigers tempo, but they simply have to much firepower. Johni Broome and KD Johnson can legit go off at any point. Auburn averages 83.4 ppg and give up 68 ppg. Yale score 73.6 ppg and give up 68.1 ppg. Yale shoots 46.2% from the field, 69th in the country (nice). Both of these teams are in the top 20 for offensive rebounding so secondary chance points will be a huge supplement to the over.
BYU Team Total Over 75.5 -115 vs Duquesne
This game is all about BYU hailing threes. The Cougars average about 32 attempts from three, 2nd in the country and average about 11 makes. If this team can make a few early, it will open up the game completely. BYU is 58.5% from 2pt%, 2nd in the nation. Duquense is solid team defensively, however BYU dominates both the boards. The Cougars rank 63rd in offensive rebounding and 10th in defensive rebounding. Duquense struggles in that category so second chance points are out of the question for the Dukes which is not a good sign for a team that struggles to efficiently score. This means extra possessions for the Cougars.
Illinois vs Morehead St +11.5 -110
This game will be all about the shot making ability of the Illini against this relentless Morehead St defense. The Eagles have some the best metrics in the country when it comes to defending the interior and the 3 point line. Opponents against the Eagles averages 31.1% from 3, 31st in the country, and 45.4% from 2 which is 16th in the country. Morehead does have the ability to make shots. The team averages 9 three's games a game, 50th in the country and shot 54.5% from within the arc, 22nd in the country. I do think the Illinois athletic roster will win this game, but I do think MHU will be able to keep it close.
Washington St vs Drake -1.5 -110
This is a very even match up but im taking the team that been playing bubbles games for the past two month. I am also taking the side with the best player, Tucker DeVries. The dude averages 21.8 ppg and can take over games.
Iowa St Team Total 76.5 vs S. Dakota St
This is a pure system play. The cyclones average 75.6 points and the jackrabbits give up 71.6 ppg. Iowa St is 10th in Steal ppg so there will be extra points. Iowa St has one of the best defenses in the country where opponents average 61 ppg. Iowa St will be able t out rebound the jackrabbits so there will be so 2nd chance opooritnitys whatssover.