Here we go, best time of the year. Lets dive into this the South region with number 1 overall seed Bama. However, we don't know the Crimson tide's opponent yet (granted I'm prepared to hammer the Team Total) so we will skip them for now:
8) Maryland vs 9) West Virginia -2
Kevin Willard vs Bobby Huggins means this game will be a guaranteed rock fight. The terps had a solid year @ 21-12, 12-10 in conference and good enough for an at large. This includes 6-7 record vs tourney teams. WVU was only 5 game above .500 this season, but racked up 8 wins in the Big 12...best conference in the country. I'm taking the mountaineers -2. Mountaineers are more efficient @ scoring the ball, and I believe the Big 12 battle tests teams more than the Big 10. Both team have very similar stats from 3PT% to Free throw to Block and rebounds. This is me picking Huggins over Willard in the NCAA Toruney.
5) San Diego St. vs 12 College of Charleston +5.5
Very interesting game here. SDSU is a defensive beast all year long holding opponents to 63.8 PPG. However, Charleston holds their opponents to 67.4 PPG. Both these teams are in the top 20 when it comes to opponents 3PT%: SDSU 29.2% vs CoC 30.3%. This game will be won converting within the 3 point-line where CoC is statically better: 52.4% vs 49.4%. College of Charleston hits the boards as well, averaging 11.8 (2.6 more than SDSU) offensive rebounds a game and 25.5 (2.1 more than SDSU) defensive rebounds a game. In a game where possessions will be a premium, second chance opportunitys might be the difference. I'm taking Charleston and maybe sprinkle a little ML.
4) UVA vs 13) Furman +5.5
This game depends on what Cavalier team shows up: are we going to get the team that hits shots or the team that doesn't score for a 5 minute stretch. If its the latter, Furman will make them pay. The Paladins avg 80.4 PPG and are 55.6% from the field, which is 12th best in the nation. UVA still plays a wicked style of defense, averaging opponents to 60.3 PPG. UVA will need to alter shots within the 3point line. The Paladins shoot 59.2% from 2, so the Cavs will need to block more than their nation 49th best 4.2 blocks a game. Cavs PG Kihei Clark needs to dictate tempo in this game, and run this offense. If shots don't fall, UVA will be trouble. Take the Furman points.
6) Creighton vs 11) NC State Over 148
This game comes down to the wolfpack going after Creighton big man Ryan Kalkbrenner. If they can get him into foul trouble or draw him out on pick n roll, the wolfpack will have a chance. I think Creighton will win this game. They are too athletic and skilled in the back court with Trey Alexander and Ryan Nembhard. Baylor Scheierman is a southpaw 3 point shooter that is lethal. Arthur Kaluma is an athletic freak/match up nightmare and Kalbrenner is a force down low. NC State will have to hit 3's to win this thing since Creighton is 20th in country in allowing few points within the three point arc at 45.6% shooting. I like the over in this game because both teams are in the top 50 when it comes to total FGs made per game (Creighton 27.5 vs NC State 29.0) and NC state average 64.2 shots a game. Creighton shoots 36% from 3 and 76.7% from the free throw line, give me the blue jays and the over.
3) Baylor vs 14) UCSB +11 and over 143
This Baylor season has had it ups and its downs, and the bears seem to be limping into the postseason. However, I have faith that the scoring will return. YTD, the Bears shoot 37.2% from three, which is about 9.7 3's made per game. They will need every ounce of that shooting to get past the Gauchos. The Gauchos complete 54.7% of their shots within the paint which is very interesting since Baylor allows their opponents to shoot 53.3% in the same area. UCSB are 20-12 where the over hits. Give me the over and the points.
7) Mizzou vs 10) Utah State o154.5
This is going to be a run and gun game with two offenses that score. Both teams average north of 75 PPG. Both teams are in the top 30 when it comes to 3 pointers made. Both defenses are in the bottom of the country when it comes to defending the three point line (Mizzou opponents hit 35.4% while Utah St opponents hit 34.3%) Mizzou hit 55.9% of their two pointers and Utah St hit 54.2% of their two pointers. This game will be all chuck and duck offense.
2) Arizona TT over 85.5 vs 15) Princeton
Arizona might put up a hundred piece. They put up north of 85 points 17 times this season. They shoot 38.2% from 3 (14th in the country) and an overall 56.8 FG%. This is a game where a Pac12 athlete takes over a game vs an ivy League athlete.