If haven't already, check out my breakdown of the South Region:
Like i did for the South Region, I'm going to skip the # 1 seed in the region...the game will be bloodbath.
8) Memphis -2 vs 9) FAU
FAU is having the best season in program history, finishing the year 31-2 and 9 seed in the tournament. The Owls are scoring 78.2 points a game while conceding 65.3PPG. Memphis on the other hand are coming off a AAC Title game win vs #1 seed Houston. The Tigers offense has been rolling averaging 79.8PPG and giving up 71.9 PPG. Both teams fairly even in 3PT% to 2PT% to rebounding. However, I give the edge to Memphis. They return key players from last years tournament that nearly took down Gonzaga in the round of 32 and this teams has played higher quality opponents. Give me the Tigers -2.
5) Duke vs 12) Oral Roberts +7
Probably the two hottest teams rolling into March. Oral Roberts is currently riding a 17 game win streak and Duke is coming off an ACC tournament championship.Oral Roberts has an electric offense: 82.4 PPG, 78% FT%, 37 % PT%, 47.6% Shooting % . They take the 2nd most three's per game and are 56.8% from 2PT. They are led by their stud Max Abmas, who averages 22.2 PPG. Duke however is peaking at the right time and are healthy. They are led by Kyle Filipowski, the engine of this team. The emergence of Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively has provided this offense match up nightmares for opponents and length on defense. I do like Oral Roberts covering here. The amount of shots this team take and overall efficiency is too good to pass up
4) Tennessee vs 13) Louisiana Under 136.5
I cant tell you how much I hate betting unders but I feel like this is the spot. The Vols are 19-13-1 in games where the under hits and the Rajin Cajuns have hit the under 6 of the last 7 games. Tennessee have the best perimeter defense in the country, holding opponents to just 26.2% from 3. They also have the best interior defense as well, limiting opponents to just 44.6% shooting within the arc. Tennessee also struggle to score so this game will be a snooze fest.
6) Kentucky vs 11)Providence over 144.5
This game comes down to two things: can Providence limit the wildcats on the boards and can the Friars hit shots. If Provi gets destroyed on the boards and is 1-9 from 3 come halftime, this game might be a blow out as we saw vs Seton Hall and Uconn. It is pivotal for Noah Locke to hit his 3's, and the Croswell/Moore need to somehow limit Kentucky rebounding. But that is no easy easy task. Kentucky, lead by returning player of the year Oscar Tshibwee, is 4th in the nation when it comes to offensive boards, 13.6, and Providence gives up 7.9 offensive boards a game. The story of this game is Bryce Hopkins. Hopkins started his college career sitting on the Kentucky bench and transferred to Providence. In a Friars jersey, Hopkins became one of the best players in the Big East. Is this a Hopkins revenge game courtesy of Cooley magic? Both teams put up points and both defenses looked shaky as of late, give me the over and some Provi ML
3) Kansas St. Team Total over 74.5 vs 14) Montana St.
When it comes to march, you will need a guard that can get to the rack and get a bucket. Kansas St. have just that in Markquis Nowell. Nowell was 4th in the Big 12 in PPG. Kansas St also has the 2nd best scorer in the conference in Keyontae Johnson in 17.7 PPG. The best opponent Montana St. played this season was Oregon, and they lost by 30. Look for K st to push the tempo, so take Team total 74.5. They average 75.5 PPG YTD and scored above 74.5 14 times this season
7) Michigan St. vs 10) USC under 135.5
This game is going to be another rock fight. Sparty loves to hit threes but when they are cold, they are cold. USC plays great defense, this game will be very similar to Tennessee vs Rajin Cajuns.
2) Marquette vs 15) Vermont Over 143.5
This season has taught never bet against the Golden Eagles. IF you remove Brandon Miller and Zack Edey, the Golden Eagles point guard Tyler Koleck is the best player in the country. He is able to penetrates defenses, has a lethal running teardrop shot in the paint and substitutes the ball at an elite level. This is why Marquette is having one of their best seasons ever. As a team, Marquette is automatic from the paint shooting 58.8%. Vermont allows opponents shoot 50% from with in the three point arc, so i Expect Marquette to eat. Vermont shoots the ball well so I love the over here.
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