The Cowboys are consensus 5.5-point favorites over the Giants, with the game total set at 45 points. The spread opened at Cowboys -4, while the total has not moved much. Dallas is -245 on the moneyline, while New York is +200 to pull off a big upset.
Dallas is favored despite two straight home losses to the Saints and Ravens. The good news for Dallas is that Dak Prescott finished with 379 passing yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception against Baltimore, showing signs of improvement that were too late to win that game. The Giants, meanwhile, finally got their first win of the season last week against the Browns. Daniel Jones played well with 236 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but Malik Nabers was the star of the show with 8 catches for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Wan'Dale Robinson o34.5 receiving yards (-120):
The Malik Nabers hype is legit and the clip of him wanting to face Dallas' Trevon Diggs is adding gas to the fire. The Cowboys' defensive game plan will be heavily focused on stopping Nabers. With the short week, the Dallas defense could be down to a third-string corner opposite Diggs and might be caught off guard with the No.2 option in the Giants' passing game. Wan'Dale Robinson has as many targets through three weeks as CeeDee Lamb and DK Metcalf. His receiving total is at a modest 34.5 yards which seems like a discount after a 6/44/0 on 12 targets in Week 1 and a 7/61/0 on eight targets last week. This total closed at 38.5 vs. Washington where he was quiet in Week 2, but that defense is terrible and Daniel Jones could go to Nabers on every play. He might not have that option this week. Dallas will force Jones to stay away from Nabers which should allow Robinson get this Over across the line.
Dak Prescott o23.5 completions (-102):
Dallas carries the fourth-lowest PFF rushing grade through three weeks, and the defense ranks 31st while also allowing the highest EPA per rush and fifth-highest overall. The combo has put Dallas behind the eight ball and in a pass-happy game script in consecutive games, and Prescott has completed 55 passes the past two weeks. I’m expecting the Big D QB to be taking it to the air early and often again Thursday against the Giants, and he also has positive regression ahead of his 66.7 adjusted completion percentage after posting 77.6% and 74.4% marks the past two seasons.
N.Y. Giants +5.5 (-110):
Truth be told, New York should be 2-1 SU at this juncture if not for a weirdo loss to Washington in Week 2 (you need kickers. Who knew?). The advanced metrics don’t hate the G-Men either, with them sitting middle of the road in EPA ratings as well as Defensive DVOA. The Giants bring a ton of momentum into this rivalry, coming off their best performance of the season on both sides of the ball. Dallas' defense is getting rolled by the run and Mike Zimmer has a short week to fix this broken stop unit. The Cowboys offense is just as bad, with little pop beyond CeeDee Lamb. I'll take the +5.5 on the divisional dog at home this Thursday. Hungry Dawgs run fast.
Cowboys/Giants o45 (-112):
This Over got hit hard at 43.5 and has driven this number as high as 45.5. A lot of that has to do with the injuries both teams have in the secondary and the reason why I'm jumping on the Over flat 45 while it's still there. The Cowboys were already down starting corner DaRon Bland and now his backup, Caelon Carson, is very questionable after a pair of DNPs to open up the week. That would thrust CJ Goodman into a starting role on a short week. Goodman has played four defensive snaps this year. The Giants are also in trouble in the secondary as corners Adoree' Jackson and Dru Phillips are also questionable after DNP estimations this week. They might get corner Nick McCloud back, but this was a defense that benefitted greatly last week vs. a gutted Cleveland O-line and sacking Deshaun Watson eight times. Dak is an elite passer vs. pressure while the Giants will be able to move the sticks while playing from behind.
Ezekiel Elliott 10+ rush attempts (+320):
Projecting for just over 10 carries from the veteran back who has been used sparingly of late which has a lot to do with the Cowboys trailing 14-3 after the first quarter in back-to-back weeks. Dallas ran the ball just 16 times last week compared to 51 passes and owns one of the worst rush rates in football to begin the season thanks to game script. I'm expecting the 6-point favorites to run the ball tonight and even if Rico Dowdle is the more effective back, Zeke can still get his 10+ carries in a game that might see favorable running conditions with potential rain. There is nothing sexy about Zeke, but that's usually where the value lies.
Devin Singletary o60.5 Rushing Yards (-114):
Singletary has scored twice this year and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He’s also run the ball 42 times already this year as New York is using him as a true three-down back. Singletary’s usage has been higher in each of the last two games, the blowout loss against the Minnesota Vikings somewhat took him out of the offense as a runner (getting 16 carries against both the Washington Commanders and the Cleveland Browns). In each of those games, he has picked up at least 65 yards on the ground. The Giants now face a Dallas team that has allowed a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry over their first three games. This Cowboys defense can be exploited in multiple ways, but the ground game has to be a part of that plan, which will mean a lot of work for Singletary.
Daniel Jones o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+215):
It is hard to ignore the fact that Jones put up good numbers against both the Commanders and the Browns, however, and he gets another less-than-imposing defense on Thursday against the Cowboys. Dallas is allowing a poor 7.4 yards per attempt through the air, and opposition quarterbacks are throwing to a reasonable 85.5 rating. The Cowboys allowed 29.7 ppg, one of the worst figures in the league. The Cowboys aren’t awful against the passing game, and Jones isn’t a great quarterback. If this bet was offering even money, I’d be uncertain about taking it. But with a +215 offer on Jones to throw two touchdowns – something that can happen either if he plays well, or if the Giants fall behind early and end up throwing the ball a lot, I think there’s tremendous value on this bet.
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