Nearly six months of non-stop action comes down to this: the Purdue Boilermakers, seeking their first-ever National Title, will take on the UConn Huskies, seeking their sixth National Title and second in a row. Buckle up and let’s analyze this great matchup.
UConn (-6.5) - The Huskies are undefeated at home and neutral sites over the last two seasons heading into Monday night’s matchup. They are also undefeated in Championship games at 5-0. They have size, they have depth, and they have swagger. Head coach Danny Hurley has put together a winning foundation in UConn that survived the turnover of four starters from last year’s championship squad. They have yet to win a game by less than double-digits in the tournament. Can they be stopped?
Purdue (+6.5) - Purdue is by no means a pushover heading into this title game. They have a school-record 34 wins this season. The Boilermakers have only won one of their tournament games by less than double-digits. They have the two-time NOP in Zach Edey and they are now 17-3 vs. tournament teams this season. Can the Boilermakers finish their redemption story?
Coaching:
Dan Hurley gets and certainly deserves all the accolades that have come thanks to this amazing two-year run at the helm of the Huskies. They have been dominant in the tournament through the last 11 games and he has seamlessly transitioned his team back into the title game this season after losing a huge chunk of his core group last year.
Purdue head coach Matt Painter doesn’t have to take a backseat to anyone. While he is in his first Final Four, Painter has been one of the best coaches in the Big Ten for nearly two decades. He has built his offense around Edey and will try to ride the big man to a National Title.
Edge - UConn
Starting Five:
UConn revamped its starting five this year through the transfer portal and a stud freshman in Stephon Castle. The key to this game lies in Castle. The Boilermakers don’t have a player at his level on the wing and if Castle gets going, it could be a long night for the Boilermakers.
Purdue runs everything through Edey which explains why he is the first player to to score over 20 points with 10+ rebounds in six straight tournament games in over 50 years. The key for the Boilermakers will be point guard Braden Smith. He looked sluggish against NC State and bothered by the full court pressure. If he is on his game, the floor opens up for the rest of Purdue.
Edge - UConn
UConn Huskies Double Result (-140)
Game models give the nod to UConn for the win but some of these projections are calling for a closer contest than the point spread. The outright price on the Huskies is as high as -300, but we can take the sting out of that with the first half/full game market - AKA the double result. Connecticut has been very strong out of the blocks all season, boasting an average margin of almost 10 points per first half. And while Purdue is right with them in terms of stellar 1H efforts, the Boilermakers had started slow against the likes of Tennessee and Gonzaga and were only three points up on NC State with nine second left in the half before a late 3-pointer made it six. We'll grit our teeth in the first 20 minutes and watch the Huskies hold on for their second straight title.
Zach Edey o23.5 points (-120)
Edey will face his toughest matchup of the season against UConn and Donovan Clingan tonight but I still like him to eclipse his points total based on sheer volume alone. Edey has scored 25+ points in 10 of his last 12 games and is averaging a whopping 28.5 ppg during that span. The Purdue big man has played 117 minutes over the last three games and he'll log plenty of minutes and see a sky-high usage rate in a game of this magnitude. Especially with UConn's defenders likely locking down Purdue's perimeter options. Edey might not be his usual highly-efficient self, but he should play enough minutes and take enough shots to surpass this number.
Purdue +7 (-110)
Both UConn and Purdue have beaten the spread in every game of this tournament, the Huskies doing so by 12.9 points, the Boilermakers by 10.5. Yet this spread has climbed all the way to +7 after opening at +5.5, and that opening number already had baked in some recency bias for UConn’s dominance. But shouldn’t it have factored in that same thought for Purdue? This spread has simply grown too much, especially with the total falling to 144.5 after opening at 148.5.
Alex Karaban o1.5 Assists (+160)
Karaban isn’t known for his playmaking, so much so, many sportsbooks aren’t posting a prop for his assist total against Purdue tonight. The shops that are offering an Over/Under on his assists have the number at 1.5 O/U with the Under as expensive as -208. Karaban has dished out two assists in two of UConn’s five NCAA games and has two dimes in four of the Huskies’ eight postseason games overall, going back to the Big East tournament. The Boilermakers are big in the middle, so Karaban’s not going to get easy looks inside. That means more kick-outs to spot up shooters. Against the Purdue zone, Karaban will be a passer out of the high post, with lobs inside to Clingan. With the Under asking so much, you can find the Over 1.5 assists as high as +160. I’ll bite.
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