Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers looked dominant during their 33-16 win against Philadelphia in Week 4, jumping out to a 24-0 lead halfway through the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons won an NFC South divisional bout at home against the New Orleans Saints during Week 4, scoring two defensive touchdowns and converting a walk-off field goal to grab a 26-24 victory to improve to 2-2.
Baker Mayfield has had a strong start to his 2024 campaign, falling short only once against a stingy Broncos pass defense in Week 3. Kirk Cousins has left a bit to be desired for the Falcons, although they did steal a win on the road against the Eagles thanks to Cousins’ late execution on the final drive in Week 2. We’re in store for a competitive divisional matchup on Thursday night from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Which fans can have Chic-Fila in the stadium tonight because it's Thursday.
Tonight's Card:
Tampa Bay +2.5 (-115)
This spread sits funny with me, especially considering this is a Thursday football game. Leaves a lot of room for silliness. But we do know this: Tampa Bay is coming for Kirk Cousins. The Buccaneers blitz at the third highest rate in the NFL. That has Tampa among the leaders in QB hurries and QB hits. Cousins and his questionable Achilles don’t move around too well these days, and his ratings through four games reflect that. He rates among the bottom QBs at PFF when pressured and blitzed and was sacked four total times and threw three combined interceptions versus blitz-happy schemes from Kansas City and Pittsburgh. If the Bucs can jump out early on the Falcons – like they’ve been able to do this season - Atlanta will abandon the run and leave Cousins exposed to punishment.
Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+165)
With Atlanta running a high rate of zone and guarding against the deep ball, the Bucs’ slot receiver will go to work finding that space underneath. Not only is Godwin one of the best WRs versus zone coverage in the land (rated No. 5 at PFF) but the Falcons enter Week 5 ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of slot secondary. Considering the matchup and Evans not being 100% (knee/calf), I’ll snatch up Godwin at +165.
Cade Otton o28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Otton rarely comes off the field and has seen his target-share soar in recent weeks. The Bucs tight end racked up seven receptions for 47 yards in Week 3 and hauled in six of nine targets for 52 yards last week. The Bucs have struggled to run the ball efficiently, so expect them to continue to rely on their passing game. The Falcons do a good job of defending deep passes thanks to safety Jessie Bates III, so I think Otton will be open in the flat or for some shallow crossing routes.
Baker Mayfield o9.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most rushing yards to QBs this season (41 per game) as well the most QB runs (36). Mayfield isn't exactly a burner, but he's not afraid to tuck it and run, logging at least three carries in three of his first four games and topping this total in each of those contests. Industry projections put Mayfield at about 13 rushing yards for this game, and with almost every book sitting at 10.5, I'll happily take an extra yard with this at 9.5.
Comments