2026 Open Championship Preview: Carnage Is Back on the Menu at Royal Birkdale

The final major championship of the year is finally here, and there's no better way to end major season than with The Open Championship. This isn't just another PGA Tour stop where guys are throwing darts at soft greens. This is links golf. Bad bounces. Pot bunkers. Unpredictable wind. Firm fairways. The kind of golf where the best player doesn't always win because Mother Nature gets a vote.

This year's Open heads back to Royal Birkdale, one of the most iconic venues in golf. If you've never watched an Open at Birkdale, expect one thing: precision. The fairways are framed by towering dunes, the bunkers are absolute nightmares, and the course has been redesigned since the last Open here in 2017. Add in the baked-out conditions from England's unusually dry summer, and this place is expected to play faster and firmer than ever before. Distance helps, but driving it into the wrong spot will leave players scrambling all day.

That's why I love The Open.

You don't have to shoot 25-under to win. Sometimes par feels like a birdie. Sometimes a perfectly struck golf shot ends up in a bunker because the wind decided to change halfway through the ball flight. It's controlled chaos, and that's what makes this tournament so much fun to watch.

Now let's address the elephant in the room.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy deserve to be the favorites. Scottie is the defending Champion Golfer of the Year, and Rory is playing some of the best golf of his career after finally completing the career Grand Slam. If either of them wins, nobody should be surprised.

But that's boring.

Let's find some value.

My Pick to Win: Tommy Fleetwood

If there's ever going to be a Tommy Fleetwood major, this feels like the week.

He's playing in front of a home crowd just minutes from where he grew up. He knows Royal Birkdale as well as anyone in the field, and his game is built for links golf. Fleetwood doesn't overpower golf courses. He plots his way around them. His ball flight stays under the wind, his iron play is elite, and when conditions get difficult, he usually moves up the leaderboard instead of down it.

Would there be a better story than finally seeing Tommy lift his first major championship in his own backyard?

Second Pick: Viktor Hovland

This is quietly one of the hottest golfers on the planet.

Hovland comes into the week in excellent form after winning the Travelers Championship, and his ball-striking has been phenomenal. The biggest knock on Viktor used to be his short game, but he's improved dramatically around the greens over the last two seasons. If the putter cooperates, I think he's right there on Sunday.

Third Pick: Cameron Young

I'm going with another player still chasing that elusive first major.

Young has quietly developed one of the best Open Championship résumés among players without a major victory. He absolutely bombs it off the tee, but more importantly, he's shown he knows how to play links golf. His creativity around the greens continues to improve, and he's exactly the type of player who could catch lightning in a bottle for four days.

Three Longshots Worth Sprinkling

Aaron Rai – Nobody hits more fairways. If accuracy becomes the biggest weapon this week, Rai could absolutely hang around the first page of the leaderboard.

Min Woo Lee – If the weather stays calm, his aggressive style could pay off. He's coming off a strong Scottish Open and has the creativity you need on links courses.

Matt Fitzpatrick – He's not exactly a longshot, but he's being overlooked because everyone is talking about Scottie and Rory. His tee-to-green game and scrambling make him a nearly perfect fit for Royal Birkdale.

Whose Game Fits Royal Birkdale Best?

If we're talking pure course fit, I think Tommy Fleetwood checks every box.

He's patient.

He embraces ugly golf.

He's comfortable flighting the ball through the wind.

He doesn't panic when pars become valuable.

And perhaps most importantly, he'll have the crowd behind him all week.

Sometimes that matters.

What I'm Watching This Week

• Can Scottie bounce back after an uncharacteristic missed cut at the Scottish Open?

• Does Rory complete another incredible chapter after finally ending his major drought?

• Can an Englishman finally win The Open on English soil for the first time since Tony Jacklin in 1969? The pressure on Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Hatton and the rest of the home contingent will be enormous.

No matter who wins, I have one request.

Give me absolute carnage.

I want 35-mile-per-hour winds.

I want pot bunkers ruining scorecards.

I want guys celebrating pars like they just made eagles.

The Open isn't supposed to be easy. It's supposed to identify the golfer who survives four days of controlled chaos.

That's what makes it the greatest major championship in golf.