2026 College Football Mega Preview: Everything You Need to Know Before the Season Really Begins

College football is finally back, and the 2026 season somehow feels even more chaotic than the one we just finished. That is saying something considering Indiana — yes, Indiana — just completed one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of American sports by going 16-0 and beating Miami 27-21 for the first national championship in school history. Now the Hoosiers enter a new season as defending champions, Ohio State is preseason No. 1, Oregon might have the most complete roster in the country, Arch Manning gets one last opportunity to deliver Texas a national championship, Lane Kiffin is wearing LSU purple and gold, Bill Belichick is trying to prove Year 1 at North Carolina was an aberration, the Pac-12 has been resurrected, and the College Football Playoff rules have changed again.

And that is before we even get to what happened today.

Week 0 officially kicked off the 2026 FBS season Saturday, with North Carolina and TCU meeting in Dublin, USC becoming the first ranked team to play, North Dakota State beginning life as an FBS program, and a series of games stretching all the way into the night. North Carolina has already given us the first real surprise of the season, holding TCU scoreless for the final 49 minutes of a rain-soaked 15-10 victory in Ireland. Virginia absolutely hammered NC State 34-8, and No. 14 USC handled San Jose State 42-26 behind an excellent opener from Jayden Maiava. So before most of the country has even played a game, college football is already reminding us why preseason certainty is usually complete nonsense.

USC 42-San Jose St 26

This is the full 2026 college football primer. The contenders, quarterbacks, coaching changes, playoff rules, realignment, transfers, Heisman race, sleepers, fraud candidates, futures bets and games that could define the season. If you basically went into a football coma after Indiana lifted the trophy in January and woke up today, this should get you completely caught up.

The First Thing You Need to Understand: The Big Ten Owns College Football Right Now

There was a period not very long ago where every college football season began with essentially the same assumption: the national champion was probably coming out of the SEC.

That assumption is dead.

The Big Ten enters 2026 having won three consecutive national championships, and the preseason rankings reflect that shift in power. Ohio State is No. 1 in the AP poll, Oregon is No. 2, and defending champion Indiana is No. 6. The Big Ten has eight teams in the preseason Top 25 overall, while Ohio State and Oregon give the conference the top two teams in the preseason AP poll for the first time in 65 years. The SEC still has more ranked teams with nine, but the argument about which conference currently owns the top of the sport is no longer automatically answered by pointing south.

The full top of the preseason AP poll tells you almost everything about how wide open the championship race is. Ohio State sits first with 40 first-place votes, Oregon is second with 14, Georgia is third, Notre Dame fourth, Texas fifth and Indiana sixth with eight first-place votes despite losing Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza after its perfect championship season. Miami, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Oklahoma round out the top 10. Nine different programs can make a reasonable case that they belong in the championship conversation before the first full Saturday of September.

That is what makes this season interesting. There is no 2019 LSU sitting here looking obviously inevitable. There is no Georgia team that you can pencil in for a 12-0 regular season without thinking twice. Ohio State is loaded but has a difficult schedule. Oregon is deep but still has to survive the Big Ten. Georgia is Georgia, but there are questions about its explosive playmakers. Notre Dame has arguably the cleanest path among the elite. Texas has Arch Manning and enormous expectations but also one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Indiana just went 16-0, yet it is replacing the quarterback who won the Heisman and went No. 1 in the NFL Draft.

Nobody is safe.

That is exactly how college football should be.

Indiana: Was 2025 the Greatest Cinderella Story Ever, or the Beginning of a New Power?

We cannot discuss 2026 without starting with Indiana because what Curt Cignetti just accomplished still sounds fake when you say it aloud.

Indiana went from being one of the least successful Power Four football programs in America to going 16-0 and beating Miami for the national championship. The Hoosiers became only the third Division I team ever to finish a season 16-0, joining 1894 Yale and 2019 North Dakota State. The program that had finished 2-10, 4-8 and 3-9 in the three seasons before Cignetti arrived is now defending a national championship.

Now comes the harder question.

Can they sustain it?

Fernando Mendoza is gone after winning the Heisman and becoming the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick, but Indiana did what every modern powerhouse now does: it went shopping. Former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover arrives through the transfer portal to take over the offense, and the Hoosiers once again assembled one of the best portal classes in the country. Sixty players return from last season’s roster, including 11 players with multiple starts, while 44 newcomers arrive, 18 of them transfers.

Hoover is not walking into some rebuilding situation. He has legitimate weapons around him, and Indiana’s infrastructure no longer looks like a one-year miracle. The Hoosiers have recruited at a completely different level since winning, including the first five-star commitment in program history, and Cignetti has proven that he understands roster construction in the transfer era as well as anyone in the country.

I am not predicting another 16-0 season because that is insanity.

But anybody treating Indiana like a cute story that is about to disappear has not been paying attention.

This is a real program now.

Ohio State Has the Best Player in College Football — and Maybe the Best Quarterback Too

Ohio State is preseason No. 1 for a reason.

Julian Sayin returns after completing an absurd 77 percent of his passes last season, throwing for 3,610 yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions while finishing as a Heisman finalist. He now enters his second full season as the starter stronger, more experienced and surrounded by a ridiculous collection of talent.

Then there is Jeremiah Smith.

I genuinely don't know what more needs to be said about this guy. He already has 2,558 receiving yards and 27 touchdowns through two college seasons, the most receiving yards and touchdown catches by any Big Ten receiver over his first two years. He enters his junior season with a real chance to leave Ohio State owning essentially every meaningful receiving record in the program. He is arguably the best player in college football regardless of position.

Ohio State also has sophomore running back Bo Jackson, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a freshman, and the offense now gets a fascinating change with Arthur Smith taking over as offensive coordinator. Smith’s NFL offenses have historically leaned into play-action, multiple tight ends, motion and a physical running game. Applying that philosophy to a roster with Sayin, Smith and Jackson could create an offense that looks very different from the classic Ryan Day spread attack while remaining absolutely terrifying.

The one reason I am not automatically handing Ohio State the trophy is the schedule.

The Buckeyes have to travel to Texas on September 12 in one of the biggest nonconference games of the season. They also travel to defending champion Indiana on October 17. When you are playing that kind of schedule inside an 18-team Big Ten, there is almost no room for a sleepy Saturday.

But roster for roster?

Ohio State deserves to be No. 1.

Oregon May Be the Most Complete Team in America

If Ohio State is the preseason favorite, Oregon might be my favorite roster.

Dante Moore is back instead of leaving early for the NFL, and that decision changes everything. The AP named Moore its preseason first-team All-America quarterback, which tells you where expectations are nationally. Oregon has continuity at quarterback, experience on the offensive line, a deep receiving room and another Dan Lanning defense that looks like it could suffocate people.

Oregon also quietly made one of the funniest transfer moves imaginable by adding former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola behind Moore. That gives the Ducks one of the deepest quarterback rooms in football and enormous insurance if Moore gets hurt.

The thing I trust most is the defense. Oregon has accumulated SEC-level size and speed across the front through years of elite recruiting, and Lanning has built this program specifically to survive Big Ten football. They are no longer an old-school Oregon team that needs to score 45 every week. They can beat you 42-38 or 20-13.

At +750 in the national-title market as of August 29, Oregon is one of the futures I like most because I think they are every bit as good as Ohio State while offering a slightly better number.

Georgia Is Still Georgia, Which Means You Probably Shouldn't Overthink It

Georgia is ranked No. 3 and yet somehow feels like the forgotten contender.

That sounds absurd, but I mean it.

Nobody is spending August screaming about Georgia because we've become numb to Kirby Smart winning 11 or 12 games every year. Smart enters his 11th season at Georgia with a 117-21 record, two national championships and four SEC titles. The Bulldogs have won at least 11 games in five consecutive seasons.

Gunner Stockton returns at quarterback after starting all 14 games last year, and Nate Frazier gives Georgia an experienced running back behind him. The biggest concern is whether the receiver room gives Stockton enough elite downfield playmakers to keep up if Georgia gets pulled into a shootout against Texas, LSU or another explosive SEC team.

But Georgia also has something nobody can recruit from the portal: institutional stability.

Kirby Smart knows exactly what his program is.

Georgia knows how it wants to practice, how it wants to defend, how it wants to run the football and how it wants to survive a difficult schedule. That matters tremendously in a sport where half the programs seem to change quarterbacks, coordinators and 30 players every offseason.

The SEC media overwhelmingly picked Georgia to win the conference again. Georgia received 88 championship votes compared with Texas’ 57, and the Bulldogs were projected first in the league ahead of Texas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma.

At some point, doubting Georgia just becomes trying too hard to be smart.

Arch Manning's Last Ride at Texas

There might not be a player carrying more pressure into this season than Arch Manning.

He is no longer the famous backup quarterback. He is no longer the kid everyone can excuse because of his age. Manning is now an experienced starter entering what is expected to be his final college season, and Texas has assembled a roster built to win immediately.

Texas is ranked No. 5. The Longhorns are around +650 to +800 depending on the sportsbook, making them one of the five shortest championship prices in the country. They also have one of the most brutal schedules imaginable, including Ohio State, the SEC gauntlet and a late-season road stretch that could determine whether this team is playing for a conference title or sweating out the selection committee.

Manning also enters the year near the very top of the Heisman market. Current prices have Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr around +700, Manning around +750, Dante Moore around +1100, Julian Sayin around +1200 and several other quarterbacks packed closely behind.

The talent around Manning is excellent, including preseason All-American receiver Cam Coleman and tackle Trevor Goosby. Texas is not asking Arch to drag an average roster into contention. They are asking him to be the reason a great roster becomes a championship team.

There is an enormous difference.

Notre Dame May Have the Cleanest Championship Path

Notre Dame might be the team I would least enjoy seeing in a playoff bracket.

CJ Carr threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns last year in his first season as the starter, and Notre Dame averaged 41.8 points per game with him behind center. Among returning Power Four quarterbacks, Carr led in yards per completion and ranked near the top in yards per attempt and touchdown rate.

That is why he enters the year as the betting favorite for the Heisman in several markets.

Notre Dame also has something the SEC and Big Ten contenders would kill for: independence.

The Irish do not have to survive a conference championship game, and the new CFP rules are especially favorable to them. Beginning in 2026, Notre Dame receives an automatic playoff berth if it finishes ranked in the top 12.

That is a massive structural advantage.

Notre Dame still has difficult games, especially the November 7 matchup with Miami, which carries extra weight after Miami knocked the Irish out of the playoff picture last season. But the path is clean enough that Notre Dame could realistically finish 11-1 and enter the playoff healthy while Georgia, Texas, Ohio State or Oregon are beating the hell out of each other in conference championship games.

At roughly +600 to +650, I understand completely why sportsbooks have Notre Dame essentially tied with Ohio State among the shortest title odds.

Miami Is Trying to Prove Last Year's Run Wasn't a Fluke

Miami was 44 seconds away from having an opportunity to win the national championship game against Indiana before a late interception ended its season.

The Hurricanes finished 13-3, their best season in more than two decades, and now enter 2026 ranked No. 7 and picked overwhelmingly to win the ACC. Miami received 165 first-place votes in the ACC preseason media poll. SMU finished second, Louisville third and Clemson fourth.

The major change is quarterback.

Carson Beck is gone, and Miami went right back into the portal to grab Darian Mensah from Duke. This has almost become Miami's annual quarterback strategy: Cam Ward, then Carson Beck, now Mensah. If Mensah plays at a high level, there is no reason this team cannot make another playoff run. He gets one of the best receiving duos in the country in Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate, with Toney earning preseason first-team All-America honors.

The November 7 game at Notre Dame is enormous.

That one could determine playoff seeding, an at-large spot and potentially whether one of the two teams has any margin for error in December.

Lane Kiffin at LSU Might Be the Most Entertaining Experiment in America

We knew Lane Kiffin was eventually going to create chaos again.

I just didn't expect him to do it quite like this.

Kiffin left Ole Miss after guiding the Rebels to an 11-1 regular season and jumped directly to SEC rival LSU. Pete Golding replaced him at Ole Miss, while Kiffin immediately started rebuilding LSU in his image.

And yes, this already became weird before the season even started.

A Louisiana court ruling briefly created a pathway for certain players who had already spent time around the NFL to return to college for an additional season. Kiffin attempted to bring former Ole Miss players Dae'Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris to LSU. The Big Ten and SEC then responded by passing rules preventing players with professional experience from returning to compete in their conferences. College football in 2026, ladies and gentlemen.

LSU also added former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt, giving Kiffin exactly the kind of quarterback he likes to build an offense around. The Tigers are only No. 11 in the preseason AP poll, but their championship price around +1700 to +2500 is extremely interesting.

If you want a genuine title sleeper rather than picking one of the same five teams as everyone else, LSU is probably my favorite.

Kiffin's first trip back to Ole Miss comes September 19.

That game may require federal security.

Alabama Is in an Unfamiliar Position

Alabama begins 2026 ranked No. 13.

That is its lowest preseason position in years and the first time the Crimson Tide have started outside the top 10 since 2008.

That alone tells you how much college football has changed.

Alabama is still Alabama in terms of roster talent, but the program no longer enters every season with the automatic expectation that it will play for the national championship. The SEC media picked Alabama sixth in the conference behind Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU.

Could Alabama absolutely make everyone look stupid and finish 11-1? Of course.

But there are more questions around this program than we became accustomed to during the Nick Saban era. The scary part for the rest of the sport is that recruiting has never stopped. If everything clicks, Alabama still has a ceiling few programs can match.

For once, however, they are chasing rather than being chased.

The Big 12 Is Texas Tech's Conference Until Somebody Takes It Away

Texas Tech enters the season ranked No. 12 and favored to repeat as Big 12 champion after winning its first outright league title in 70 years.

That sentence would have sounded insane three years ago.

The Red Raiders are the clear preseason favorite, with BYU, Houston, Arizona, Utah and TCU forming the next tier. The conference is probably the hardest league in America to predict because there is not a Georgia or Ohio State sitting at the top collecting five-stars at a completely different rate from everybody else.

That parity makes Texas Tech extremely interesting. They have seven players on the preseason All-Big 12 team and — importantly — avoid both BYU and Utah during the regular season. Sportsbooks have Tech around -110 to win the conference, which is a short number for a league with this much volatility.

If you want something considerably more aggressive, Oklahoma State is a fun dark horse around +2700 in some Big 12 markets. New head coach Eric Morris brings in Drew Mestemaker, who transfers from North Texas after leading the country in passing last season, and Oklahoma State gets a manageable early schedule before a home date with Texas Tech.

That isn't a prediction that Oklahoma State is winning the conference.

It is the kind of 27-to-1 ticket that could become extremely valuable by October if the offense immediately clicks.

The Pac-12 Is Back — Sort Of

One of the biggest structural changes in college football this season is that the Pac-12 officially exists again as a functioning football conference.

Oregon State and Washington State have been joined by Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Texas State and Utah State for football. Gonzaga also joins the conference in other sports, giving the Pac-12 nine full-time members overall.

The new league will play a seven-game conference schedule and host its championship game at the higher seed's stadium. It also has a unique flex-scheduling concept for the final week of the season, allowing conference matchups to be adjusted as late as six days before kickoff based partly on College Football Playoff implications.

That matters because of another huge change to the playoff.

The College Football Playoff Rules Changed Again

The 12-team playoff remains, but qualification is different in 2026.

The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champions now receive automatic bids regardless of where they rank. The highest-ranked team from the six other FBS conferences — American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt — also receives an automatic berth, and that team does not even have to be a conference champion. Notre Dame gets an automatic bid if it finishes inside the top 12.

The seeding is also cleaner.

The four highest-ranked teams, regardless of whether they won a conference championship, receive the top four seeds and first-round byes. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games on the higher seed's campus.

I like this format significantly more than automatically giving the top four seeds to conference champions.

If Ohio State is ranked No. 1 at 12-0 and loses the Big Ten Championship by three points, it should not suddenly fall behind a lower-ranked conference champion solely because it lost an extra game against another elite team.

The 2026 system gets much closer to rewarding the actual best teams.

The Transfer Portal Has Made Quarterback Evaluation Completely Insane

If there is one thing everyone needs to accept about modern college football, it is that learning the quarterback depth chart in January is basically pointless.

Indiana has Josh Hoover from TCU. LSU has Sam Leavitt from Arizona State. Miami has Darian Mensah from Duke. Oklahoma State has Drew Mestemaker from North Texas. Penn State brought Rocco Becht with Matt Campbell from Iowa State. Auburn added Byrum Brown from South Florida along with his old head coach Alex Golesh.

That is modern roster building.

Quarterbacks no longer necessarily develop for three years inside one system and finally earn the job as juniors. Elite programs can go buy a proven starter every January if they do not like what they have.

The result is better quarterback play at more schools, but it also means roster continuity has become incredibly valuable. Ohio State knows exactly what Sayin is. Oregon knows what Moore is. Texas knows what Manning is. Notre Dame knows what Carr is. Georgia knows what Stockton is.

Those five teams have something many contenders do not: certainty.

The Heisman Race Is Completely Wide Open

I would not touch a short Heisman favorite in August unless I absolutely loved the number because recent history has repeatedly shown how unpredictable this award can be.

CJ Carr currently sits around +700, Arch Manning around +750, Jeremiah Smith around +800, Dante Moore around +1100, Julian Sayin around +1200, Trinidad Chambliss in the +1300 range and Josh Hoover around +1500.

The most interesting player is Jeremiah Smith because winning the Heisman as a wide receiver remains incredibly difficult. But if anybody can do it, it is him. Smith already has the national reputation, Ohio State will be on television constantly, and he plays in enough marquee games that a few monster performances could create a legitimate campaign.

My favorite value, though, might be Josh Hoover.

Hoover gets the defending national champions, a loaded roster and a perfect narrative. The last Indiana transfer quarterback won the Heisman and a national championship. If Hoover walks into Bloomington and takes the Hoosiers back to 11 or 12 wins, he will have one of the easiest Heisman stories in the country to sell.

At around 15-to-1, that interests me considerably more than trying to guess between Carr and Manning at 7-to-1.

Coaching Changes Could Completely Reshape the Sport

The coaching carousel after last season was outrageous.

Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss for LSU. Matt Campbell left Iowa State for Penn State. Alex Golesh took over Auburn. Jon Sumrall left Tulane for Florida. Ryan Silverfield went from Memphis to Arkansas. Bob Chesney took UCLA. Pat Fitzgerald returned to college football at Michigan State. Morgan Scalley finally succeeded Kyle Whittingham at Utah. Kyle Whittingham then landed at Michigan. Brian Hartline took over USF. Billy Napier went from Florida to James Madison.

The Penn State move is especially intriguing.

Campbell brings Rocco Becht and several former Iowa State players with him, while Penn State avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana entirely during the regular season. That schedule makes No. 18 Penn State one of the more interesting sleeper teams in the Big Ten.

Then there is Bill Belichick.

North Carolina went 4-8 in Year 1 and was embarrassed 48-14 by TCU in last season's opener. Today, Belichick got an immediate measure of revenge by beating TCU 15-10 in Dublin behind a defense that shut the Horned Frogs out over the final 49 minutes.

Does that mean UNC is suddenly a contender? No.

But Year 2 already feels different from Year 1.

Week 0 Has Already Given Us Something to Think About

North Carolina's win over TCU is probably the most meaningful result of the day so far. TCU entered the season believing it could contend in the Big 12, but an offense that scored only 10 points and went scoreless after the first quarter is immediately concerning. New quarterback Jaden Craig threw for 175 yards, while UNC quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 232 and Belichick's defense repeatedly came up with fourth-down stops.

Virginia's 34-8 destruction of NC State might be even more eye-opening. The Cavaliers rushed for 251 yards on 53 carries and completely controlled the game, while NC State struggled to generate anything vertically. That is the type of Week 0 result that can immediately change expectations for both programs.

USC did what it was supposed to do against San Jose State. Jayden Maiava went 25-of-29 for 286 yards and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground, and freshman Trent Mosley introduced himself with seven catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. USC built a 35-3 lead before San Jose State put up late points against backups. The Trojans are 1-0, and their offensive ceiling remains very high.

North Dakota State's FBS debut is another historic part of this opening weekend. The Bison moved up after decades of terrorizing the FCS, where they won 10 national championships since 2011. Sacramento State is making the jump as well, giving this season another layer of realignment insanity.

And because college football cannot stop changing, this may also be one of the final traditional “Week 0” weekends. Beginning in 2027, the FBS is moving the official first-contest date to the Thursday of what is currently Week 0, effectively extending the normal season calendar.

The Five Games I Would Circle Right Now

If I could only choose a handful of regular-season games that I believe will shape the playoff race, Ohio State at Texas on September 12 is No. 1. Sayin against Manning. Jeremiah Smith against Cam Coleman. Two championship contenders and NFL scouts everywhere. The loser can absolutely still make the playoff, but the winner immediately gets the best early résumé in the country.

LSU at Ole Miss on September 19 might be the most toxic football environment of the year. Lane Kiffin returning to Oxford after abandoning an 11-1 Ole Miss team for LSU is going to be unbelievable television.

Georgia at Alabama on October 10 is still Georgia-Alabama. Georgia has not won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, and even in a season where Alabama enters ranked 13th, that game will have enormous SEC and playoff implications.

Ohio State at Indiana on October 17 gives the defending champion a chance to prove last year was no fluke against the preseason No. 1 team.

And Miami at Notre Dame on November 7 could function as a playoff elimination game depending on what happens during the first two months.

Those are Saturdays where you clear the schedule.

Teams I Think Could Exceed Expectations

LSU is the obvious one. If Kiffin and Leavitt click immediately, this roster has enough talent to make a playoff run, and +2500 for the national championship is considerably more appealing to me than taking one of the favorites around +600.

Penn State is another. The Nittany Lions are ranked only No. 18, have Matt Campbell, brought in players who already know his system and somehow avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana in the regular season. That schedule is screaming 10-win sleeper if the transition goes smoothly.

SMU interests me in the ACC. Miami is the clear favorite, but SMU finished second in the preseason league poll and has enough returning experience to make another run toward Charlotte.

Utah is the complete lottery ticket. Kyle Whittingham is gone, Morgan Scalley takes over, and the Utes are around 120-to-1 in some national title markets. I am absolutely not telling anyone Utah is going to win the national championship. But if you want a stupid long future that could theoretically become interesting, Utah has quarterback Devon Dampier, a manageable Big 12 path and a program culture that has historically been extremely difficult to kill.

Teams That Make Me Nervous

Texas A&M is preseason No. 8, but the combination of expectations and schedule scares me. There is no doubt the roster is talented enough to make the playoff. My concern is whether the Aggies are being priced and ranked closer to their theoretical ceiling than their proven level. Even Texas-based preseason analysis has identified A&M as one of the teams that could disappoint because of its schedule and roster uncertainty.

USC is another team I am hesitant to buy completely despite a good Week 0 opener. The Trojans have five games against preseason top-20 teams, including Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. They can be significantly improved and still finish 8-4 simply because the schedule is vicious.

And Clemson is fascinating because the brand still screams national contender while the current preseason environment does not. Miami, SMU and Louisville all finished ahead of Clemson in the ACC media poll. If the offensive line and quarterback play are not significantly better, the Tigers could be good without ever becoming nationally relevant.

The Futures Card I Like Before Week 1

If I were building a small preseason futures portfolio rather than throwing money at 15 different outcomes, my favorite national championship play would be Oregon around +750. Ohio State may have the best individual talent, but Oregon has the quarterback, roster depth, defense and coaching to win the whole thing, and I prefer getting the extra price.

My higher-risk championship play would be LSU around +2500. Lane Kiffin with LSU resources is either going to become one of the greatest combinations in modern college football or produce a spectacular disaster. At 25-to-1, I am willing to bet on the ceiling.

For the Heisman, I prefer Josh Hoover around +1500 to the short favorites. The reigning national champion gives him the national stage, he has proven Power Four production, and Indiana has already shown it knows how to build an offense around a portal quarterback.

If you want the non-quarterback lottery ticket, Jeremiah Smith around +800 is the only receiver I would consider at a relatively short number. He may be the best player in the sport, and Ohio State will give him enough national showcase games to build a campaign.

For a conference future, Oklahoma State around +2700 to win the Big 12 is the type of bet I like as a small position. Texas Tech is clearly the favorite, but the Big 12 is volatile enough that a productive transfer quarterback and an offensive-minded new coach can radically change a team's ceiling in one season.

And if someone wants the completely irresponsible “imagine having this ticket in November” future, Utah around 120-to-1 nationally is the one. That should be treated as a lottery ticket, not an investment.

Odds move constantly, so those numbers should always be checked before placing anything.

My Preseason Playoff Picture

I am not going to pretend anyone can accurately predict a 12-team playoff in August, but based on roster quality, quarterback stability, schedules and conference paths, my strongest playoff pool begins with Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame and Texas.

Indiana belongs in the next group because I trust Cignetti even with the quarterback change. Miami belongs there because it was literally playing for a national championship seven months ago and upgraded aggressively through the portal. Texas Tech has the cleanest Big 12 path. LSU has the highest “this could become terrifying very quickly” ceiling. Penn State has an unusually favorable Big Ten schedule. Alabama remains too talented to ignore. SMU is my ACC dark horse, and whoever emerges from the new Pac-12/Group of Six race will now have a very real route to the field because of the new automatic-bid structure.

If you forced me today to pick a national championship matchup, I would take Oregon over Georgia.

Ask me again in six weeks and I reserve the right to pretend I never wrote that.

What Makes 2026 Different

The fascinating thing about this season is that college football has reached the point where almost every old assumption about the sport has disappeared.

Indiana is defending the national championship.

The Pac-12 exists again but contains Boise State, Texas State and Fresno State.

North Dakota State is an FBS school.

Lane Kiffin coaches LSU.

Matt Campbell coaches Penn State.

Kyle Whittingham coaches Michigan.

Bill Belichick is in Year 2 at North Carolina.

Players are getting paid legally while courts and conferences argue over whether former NFL players can come back to school.

Conference champions have automatic playoff bids, but they no longer automatically receive top-four seeds.

Notre Dame can receive an automatic berth without belonging to a conference.

The transfer portal can rebuild a roster in six weeks.

A team can go from irrelevant to national champion in two seasons.

That last one is probably the most important lesson Indiana taught everybody.

The traditional hierarchy of college football still matters. Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame and Oregon have resources most schools simply cannot match. But having money and recruiting stars no longer guarantees that a program will slowly build toward contention over four years. Great coaching, an elite quarterback and one aggressive transfer-portal cycle can change a program almost overnight.

That makes the sport more unstable.

It also makes it incredibly entertaining.

College football may currently be a regulatory disaster held together by television contracts, lawsuits, NIL collectives, transfer windows and pure American stubbornness. The Guardian described the sport entering this season as simultaneously booming and more chaotic than ever, which might be the most accurate description possible. Ratings and revenues are enormous while the actual structure of the sport remains unsettled.

But once the ball is kicked off on Saturday, none of that really matters for four hours.

You get Ohio State at Texas.

You get Kiffin walking back into Ole Miss.

You get Georgia going into Tuscaloosa.

You get Indiana defending a national championship nobody thought was possible.

You get Boise State and the reborn Pac-12 fighting for playoff access.

You get 100,000 people screaming because a 19-year-old missed a field goal.

And eventually, after 12 regular-season games, conference championships and a 12-team playoff, somebody is going to be standing on a stage holding the national championship trophy.

My pick today is Oregon.

But if Indiana taught us anything last season, it is that somebody reading this in August may already know the name of the team we're all going to spend January claiming we saw coming.

That's college football.

And it is finally back.