Ah the Wasted Management Open, the People's Open, the annual reminder Jared Goff and I are best friends.
Most casual fans know about the 16th hole, and how it steals the spotlight with its stadium-like features. This course is anything but easy. It presents a real challenge, testing players with risk-reward opportunities and strategic shot-making. Players must have solid driving accuracy, while being exceptional at their approaches into the green, leaving themselves the best possible chance to make birdies.
Scottie Scheffler returns after making his 2025 debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Scheffler delayed the start of his campaign after cutting himself while making Christmas dinner, but he finished T9 in his season debut at Pebble Beach. He won in Phoenix in 2022 and '23 but finished T3 in his three-peat effort a year ago. … Jordan Spieth is also set to tee it up for the second week in a row after returning from an injury that first arose in May 2023. Spieth finished T69 in his return to action at Pebble Beach after recovering from surgery on his wrist last summer. However, Spieth has a sparkling record at TPC Scottsdale, with five top 10s in eight starts, including back-to-back T6s. … Nick Taylor returns to defend his title from 2024. Taylor finished runner-up to Scheffler in 2023 and won in a playoff last year.
TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261-yards. It is a desert-style course with early holes that allow players to settle in, while the back nine brings the excitement and plenty of beers. Last year, the winning score was -19, proving that birdies are out there, but precision is what matters here.
One of the most exciting events to watch and gambling on during the PGA season, basically the event that gets you a 3/4 chub and start thinking about The Masters. Also having it align with the Super Bowl is great as a gambler.
Weekend Picks:
Scottie Scheffler to win outright (+300):
It’s definitely a little boring to go to the top of the board, but Scottie Scheffler carded a T9 in his 2025 debut last week and is a two-time champion at TPC Scottsdale. He’s also paced the WM Phoenix Open field in each of the past two years in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach, and he paced this year’s field in the two metrics across his past 20 events, too. Add him finishing first on approach last week at Pebble, and I’m anticipating his unrivaled ball-striking leading the way to his third win in Scottsdale.
Justin Thomas to win outright (+1400)
Recently, he has developed an unfair reputation as someone who may have “forgotten” how to win. A three-year winless drought still does not erase the fact he’s picked up two majors and 15 PGA Tour wins since 2016. So, I’m chalking up the extended winless stretch to just pure misfortune. Thomas has played well enough to win the ZOZO Championship, Hero World Challenge, and the American Express over his last five starts. You can’t fault him for not playing “defense” against the players who brought their A+ games on Sunday.
It is not a matter of if, but when Justin Thomas will get his next win this season, and I can think of no better stage than a depleted WM Phoenix Open field for JT to get over the hump. He’s proven time and time again at the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup that he can feed off the crowd energy to raise his game regardless of form. The form, however, is as good as can be, with three top-three finishes over his last five starts. He’ll set up well to keep that momentum going as he’s placed no worse than T13 in his last six trips to TPC Scottsdale.
Sahith Theegala to win outright(+4500)
Theegala should've won this tournament as a rookie in 2022. He had the 36-hole lead and was tied for the lead at the 17th hole in the final round but missed the playoff, which Scottie Scheffler won to claim his first PGA TOUR victory, and finished T3 thanks to an unlucky tee shot going into the water. Otherwise, Theegala was T39 in 2023 and fifth last year. Granted, his first four starts this season are nothing to be excited about: T36 at The Sentry, T37 at the Sony Open, T52 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T53 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Yet, Theegala randomly plays well after slumps. He was third at the 2024 TOUR Championship following a T46 and 48th in the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs.
Top-20 Finish: Billy Horschel (+240)
Last week, I went all in on Justin Rose at Pebble Beach. I had exposure across the outright, each way, placement, and fantasy formats. That worked out well, so we’re going to roll out a similar blitz of the Billy Horschel market this week. He fits all the trends for the WM Phoenix Open and is rounding into form with back-to-back top-20 finishes.
Top-20 Finish: Victor Pere (+500)
Perez is one of the more volatile players in this field, and I’m taking a stance on his ability to catch a hot putter with streaky iron play at these longer odds. His game has been OK of late, with nine top-40 finishes over his last 11 starts since the Olympics. And he’s shown encouraging results on comp courses, highlighted by a T9 finish in his only prior start at TPC Sawgrass.
Keeping the card light this week, as I am still working on my props for The Big Game this Sunday. Can't have all my money tied up in golf before the game kicks off.
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