In the words of Big justice and his weird Costco dad, this series should be a big.....BOOOOOOM.
Good morning. The New York Yankees won 94 games en route to an AL East title in 2024. Before the season, most fans would take that in a heartbeat. Now that we’re a week into October and the ALDS is here, though, the regular season means nothing. That aspect is at least a little ironic, because as the top AL seed, we haven’t seen the Yankees play a playoff game yet.
The Kansas City Royals, on the other hand, are fresh off a 2-0 Wild Card Series win over the Baltimore Orioles. Illustrating my point above, the Orioles offense—third in MLB with a 115 wRC+—was able to muster one run in two games against Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and the Royals’ bullpen. The Royals’ offense didn’t look too hot either, but in this new playoff format, two great starts by your starting rotation is enough to see you through to the Division Series — especially when you have an MVP-caliber player like Bobby Witt Jr. to get the game-winning hits.
Breaking down each part of the game and which team has the edge.
Getting on base
Where do you start with Judge and Soto? In this case, it’s with their ability to get on base. Nobody in the majors was better at it than this duo, who ranked 1-2 in on-base percentage. Gleyber Torres’ strong second half at the top of the lineup has only made them more dangerous.
Witt led the majors in hits and batting average. Like with everything else surrounding the Royals, it all revolves around Witt. The Royals swept Baltimore in the wild-card round despite scoring three runs in two games.
Edge: Yankees
Power
Judge and Soto finished first and third in slugging percentage in the American League. Who snuck in between them? Witt, of course.
Giancarlo Stanton has been a weapon this season and typically is especially dangerous in the postseason. Rookie Austin Wells and new arrival Jazz Chisholm Jr. have also supplied homers from the left side. #ChazzJizzum
Besides Witt, Salvador Perez hit 27 homers and Aaron Boone, who called Kansas City “a scary team,” mentioned the return of DH Vinnie Pasquantino from a fractured thumb suffered in late August as a key to Kansas City making it to the playoffs.
Edge: Yankees
Infield
With Anthony Rizzo likely out for at least this series with two fractured fingers in his right hand, the Yankees will have to rely on some combination of Ben Rice and Oswaldo Cabrera at first base. And trust us, Rizzo never looked better defensively than when he came back after Rice, Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu filled in for him for much of the second half.
The scoops he made on errant throws now may go for errors.
On the plus side, Anthony Volpe has been very good at shortstop. Torres has been AWFUL at second, and the Jazz experience at third has been shaky at times.
Witt, not surprisingly, is exceptional at short and Michael Massey is solid at second, as is Maikel Garcia at third for the Royals.
Edge: Even
Outfield
For as good as Judge and Soto have been at the plate, they’ve been rough in the field, thanks to Judge playing center and Soto in right. For Game 1 it looks like the Yankees will go with Alex Verdugo’s decent glove and spaghetti bat in left. Jasson Dominguez, who has struggled in left and at the plate since his September call-up.
Kansas City’s Kyle Isbel has been solid in center, as has Tommy Pham in right.
Edge: Royals
On the basepaths
Witt and Garcia both stole more than 30 bases, while Volpe is the only real base-stealing threat for the Yankees, although Jon Berti can be a factor late in games. Yankees were also 3rd in the MLB in pick offs, so look for them to hold runners close, especially Cousins out of the bullpen.
Edge: Royals
Bench
Berti has mostly been a non-factor with the Yankees, but his speed and defensive versatility could be an asset in the playoffs. How do the Yankees deploy Dominguez? And Cabrera could start at first or be a factor off the bench, can also essentially play every position. KC’s Dairon Blanco could steal a base — or two — and Hunter Renfroe has plenty of postseason experience, not to be confused with Hunter Renfroe on the Oakland Raiders.
Edge: Yankees
Rotation
The Yankees got what they wanted: a healthy Gerrit Cole ready to start Game 1 of the playoffs after missing the first half of the season with elbow inflammation. Then comes Carlos Rodon, who hopes his Bronx redemption continues into October after his nightmarish first season with the Yankees.
Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt present two intriguing options who have pitched well this season. One of the two could be used out of the bullpen.
Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans lead the Royals rotation, with Michael Wacha — who owns Judge (1-for-18, 11K's) — starting Game 1. Boone called the Royals’ rotation their “calling card.”
Edge: Yankees
Bullpen
There’s no late-game dominance from the Yankee pen this season, so they’ll have to hope their depth is enough. Luke Weaver took over for Clay Holmes as closer after an ugly stretch from Holmes, and the Yankees hope they can rely on Ian Hamilton, Tommy Kahnle and perhaps Jake Cousins, as well as a potential lefty combo of Tim Hill and Tim Mayza for big outs. In eight appearances as the de facto closer, Weaver struck out 24 batters in 11 innings without giving up an earned run.
The Royals’ pen didn’t give up a run in 7 ²/₃ innings of work in the wild-card series and they’re anchored by closer Lucas Erceg, who was picked up from the hapless A’s at the trade deadline and has given up one run over his last 11 appearances covering 13 innings.
Edge: Yankees
Intangibles
This is the lone postseason Judge and Soto are guaranteed together in The Bronx, and Cole is set up for an excellent postseason. Sure, the Yankees would like to have a sure-fire closer, as well as the versatile Nestor Cortes, who’s on the IL, but they are set up to win it more than in recent years. Only a young superstar like Witt could get in the way from the Yankees advancing to the ALCS.
Edge: Yankees
Yanks in 4!!!!!
Game 1
Matchup: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha
First Pitch: Saturday, October 5th at 6:38pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
Game 2
Matchup: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Cole Ragans
First Pitch: Monday, October 7th at 7:38pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
Game 3
Matchup: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Seth Lugo (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Wednesday, October 9th at 7:08pm ET*
Venue: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
Game 4 (if necessary)
Matchup: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Thursday, October 10th at 8:08pm ET
Venue: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
Game 5 (if necessary)
Matchup: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Cole Ragans (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Saturday, October 12th at 8:08pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
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