Yankees vs. Blue Jays ALDS Game 1: Bronx Bombers Ready to Clip Toronto’s Wings

Young Horn
7 days ago
4 min read

The 2025 ALDS is the first postseason meeting between the Yankees and the Blue Jays. Both teams finished the regular season with identical 94–68 records, but Toronto won the season series (8–5), securing the AL East and home-field advantage.

New York comes in riding momentum after dispatching Boston in the Wild Card round. But facing a top-seeded Toronto club, with potent bats and pitching depth, will be a different kind of test. The Blue Jays, however, enter with notable absences: star shortstop Bo Bichette, and rotation arms Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are not on their ALDS roster. These omissions reshape the battlefield.

The Missing Pieces: Bichette, Bassitt, Scherzer

Bo Bichette (Shortstop)

Bichette has been one of Toronto’s most consistent offensive contributors in 2025. Before his knee injury (a left knee sprain on September 6), he was hitting .311 with 18 home runs and a strong OPS. He hasn't played since that injury, and given his recovery and lack of running workouts, Toronto chose not to include him on the ALDS roster.

Losing Bichette hurts Toronto both offensively (a key bat removed) and defensively (range, instincts, and continuity). In his absence, they’ll lean more heavily on players like Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez, or other utility options at shortstop.

Chris Bassitt (Starting Pitcher)

Bassitt is off the ALDS roster due to lingering back inflammation. He had been an important part of Toronto’s rotation when healthy, so not having him available diminishes the Jays’ depth, especially in a potential Game 4 or Game 5 scenario.

Max Scherzer (Veteran Ace)

Scherzer’s omission is surprising given his name value and experience. But performance concerns played a role: he had a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts, and in recent outings he struggled with home run and early-inning damage. Also, the Blue Jays’ manager reportedly viewed his recent matchup performance vs. New York as less favorable.

By leaving Scherzer off, Toronto loses the potential for a swing-game arm or depth option, placing more burden on the rest of the staff.

How the Yankees Can Attack These Gaps

Given Toronto’s holes, here’s how New York can tilt the edge:

Attack shortstop replacements: Without Bichette, Toronto’s defense at short becomes more vulnerable. The Yankees should pressure that position with base runners, bunts, and putting the defense in motion. Misplays or slower reactions could be exploited.
Force Toronto’s rotation to less-tested arms: With Bassitt and Scherzer absent, the Jays’ staff is thinner. The Yankees should aim to push starter pitch counts early, attack the edges, and make them reach into the bullpen earlier than they want.
Depth advantages & bench usage: The Yankees can be aggressive with pinch-hitters, pinch-runners, and matchups — forcing Toronto to rely on their bench. New York’s depth may become more valuable as games unfold.
Timing & momentum swings: In a short series, breaks matter. The Yankees must capitalize on mistakes and seize momentum when available — whether via a big inning, a clutch hit, or a defensive play. That kind of swing can disrupt Toronto’s rhythm.
Bullpen leverage & bullpen matchups: With fewer high-end arms on Toronto’s roster, the Yankees can force them into matchups. If they can use relievers shrewdly — bringing the right arm at the right time — they may gain late-game edges.

What to Watch – Series Keys & X-Factors

Here are some matchups and storylines to keep close eyes on:

Starting rotation dynamics: Toronto is expected to rely on Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage, with possibility of bullpen games for depth. The Yankees’ hitters will need to navigate that.
Blue Jays at home: Toronto’s home record was elite in 2025. Yankee runs in Toronto will be more precious.
Matchups vs. replacements: How New York’s sluggers fare against fringe or younger arms will matter more than usual.
Late-inning bullpen strength: The team that can better handle the high-stress eighth and ninth innings may win more games.
Health & endurance: Toronto’s roster omissions likely stem from health and durability concerns. If their available players fatigue or lag, it could open doors.

Prediction & What I Expect

I lean Yankees in 4. Toronto’s loss of Bichette, Bassitt, and Scherzer gives New York a manageable edge. But Blue Jays have talent, home-field strength, and versatile arms.

If New York:

Plays mistake-free defense,
Keeps applying pressure early,
Forces Toronto to overextend their bullpen,
And executes in close innings,

they’ll have a strong shot.

Game 1 Prediction: Gil vs. Gausman — Yankees 4, Blue Jays 2

Why I’m Leaning Yankees

Luis Gil is sharp (if controlled). The Yankees tabbed Gil for Game 1, trusting him over Will Warren. Gil’s 2025 line is 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA. He has shown enough flashes of dominance, and the Yankees clearly believe in him for the big moment.
Gausman is steady, but beatable. Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) is Toronto’s veteran starter for Game 1. He has had success vs. New York in the past, but he tends to live on the edges — mistakes up in the zone or mislocated splitters can be costly.
Lineup matchups favor New York. With Gausman’s tendencies, the Yankees can pressure him in hitter’s counts. Their mix of power (Judge, Stanton, Rice) and discipline should make Gausman work.
Toronto’s roster holes loom. The absence of Bo Bichette, Bassitt, and Scherzer weakens Toronto’s flexibility and depth. Their bench and bullpen will have to be sharper to hold off New York’s aggression.

How I See It Unfolding

Early innings are tense. Gausman spins a few scoreless frames, mixing his fastball and splitter. Gil matches him, perhaps giving up a run or two, but staying in the game.
New York gets on the board in the mid innings — maybe Judge or Stanton draws a mistake pitch and drives it. A small rally puts a second run across.
In the later innings, the Yankees bullpen (Holmes, Loáisiga, etc.) locks things down. Toronto tries to push back, but they can’t fully break through.
Final score: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 2.