Let me start by saying good on Dr. Data. He wanted to dip his toe in the college football game, but stick to soccer.
I went 2/2 on Friday night with Air Force -9 and Maryland -14.5. So I know the data and I know BALL. Here are my picks for the Saturday slate.
Louisville Cardinals at Indiana Hoosiers:
The Indiana Hoosiers (basketball school) might not get a much-needed win but the Louisville Cardinals are not a fine-tuned squad just yet under head coach Jeff Brohm, who has taken a more conservative approach with the passing game than he did when in charge at Purdue. QB Jack Plummer has thrown three picks in two games and Louisville's shaky play overall should keep the Hoosiers alive to stay within the double-digit spread.
Pick: Indiana +10
Iowa St at Ohio:
Expect a better showing from Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke in his second game since suffering an injury in the Bobcats' opener. With Rourke sharper behind center, the Ohio defense — allowing 13.3 points per game, will have little issue shutting down a poor Iowa State offense en route to a needed victory.
Pick: Ohio ML
Florida St at Boston College:
Remember what FSU did to LSU? Florida State must control the offensive line of scrimmage, and it has one of the best O-lines in the college game. Running back Trey Benson scampered behind that line last week for 79 yards and three TDs on just nine attempts. He’ll be the workhorse with Hurricane Lee subduing the passing game. And while FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is more known for his arm, he averages 4.6 yards per attempt with a TD.
Pick: FSU -26
Penn St at Illinois:
People forget, Joe Pa knew. The Illini were defense-driven last season as they went 8-4 in the regular season and climbed to No. 21 in the final SP+ rankings of 2022, including the No. 2 defense in the country, behind only Iowa’s. But this is not that Illini, as 2023 has quickly made clear. Look at the rankings, with Illinois now ranked at No. 52 in the SP+ rankings with the No. 28 defense, and those still factor in a good amount of preseason and 2022 benefit of the doubt. Look at the games, telling the story of that analytical fall. The Illini needed a last-second field goal to beat Toledo at home, and then they were effectively played off the field by Kansas last Friday. That is not an exaggeration.
Pick: Penn St -14.5
Central Michigan at Norte Dame:
You know who went to Central Michigan and now has CTE(the brain disease and the album thats coming soon) Antonio Brown. This number simply is not high enough. Central Michigan’s offense ranks in the lower third of the country, and against the Irish defense that is giving up 10 points per game, the Chippewas will struggle to score at all. Notre Dame might need only 38 points to cover this spread, and with Sam Hartman at quarterback, the Irish could reach that in the first half.
Pick: Norte Dame -33.5
Minnesota at North Carolina:
Drake? DRAKE?!?!? The Golden Gophers have reached an offensive cliff. They lost too much from the efficient teams of the last few years, a reality the world has not yet recognized. The Tar Heels' defense looked amazingly strong in the season opener against South Carolina, but even last year’s flawed version would have success against this Minnesota offense. Drake Maye will not need to go nuclear to cover a meager touchdown spread.
Pick: UNC -7
Northwestern at Duke:
The Duke Blue Devils enjoyed a week against an FCS foe after their statement win against Clemson to open the season. If this Northwestern game had been last week instead, a letdown moment could have been a Duke worry. With that FCS buffer, though, the Blue Devils can be trusted to stay in form against the woeful Wildcats, themselves prone to a letdown after last week’s cathartic victory.
Pick: Duke -19.5
South Carolina at Georgia:
Even if SC comes out hot and gets its offense going with quick plays out in space to their playmakers, the offensive line will break down over time. With no real run game present, the Gamecocks will struggle to keep up with the Georgia offense throughout the game. I like the Bulldogs to pull away in the second half and turn the game into a blowout if it's even close to begin with.
Pick: Georgia -27.5
Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators:
Tennessee may have the edge in terms of receivers, with names like Squirrel White and Dont'e Thorton, but the question is how much of this advantage will be negated if Joe Milton can't deliver accurate passes. I also expect Florida to control the pace of the game and maintain overall possession time. Running back Montrell Johnson should also gain tough yards on the ground against a Tennessee rushing defense that ranks as average. But my brother got me some Tennessee colored T-shirts this week soooooo.
Pick: Tennessee -5.5
Colorado St at Colorado:
Prime Time. Prime Time. Prime Time. This Rams defense is pitiful and you don't have to look very far for the evidence. Washington State dropped 50 on them in Week 1 and Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward threw for 451 yards (!) and three TDs. Ward is a solid quarterback but Sanders is certainly a step above and should have no issues carving up the Cougars through the air as he did against TCU (510 yards, four TDs) and Nebraska (393 yards, two TDs), both of which have better defenses than the one Sanders will face Saturday night. CSU allowed 168, 97, and 58 yards to WSU's three leading receivers in that Week 1 matchup and allowed four plays of 25 yards or more, including a 50-yard strike to Lincoln Victor. That's cause for concern against this Buffs offense. Hunter's two games at wide receiver have looked completely different: 11 catches for 119 yards (10.8 yards per catch) in Week 1 vs. three catches for 73 yards in Week 2 (24.3 ypc). Either way, his 73.5-yard receiving total is much closer to his floor than it is to his ceiling considering the defense he's up against. Side note, me and Big Neef bought Shedaur and Shilio Sanders Colorado jerseys today. 2/21. The signs
Pick: Colorado -24.5. Shedaur Sanders o 341.5 passing yards. Travis Hunter o73.5 receiving yards.