The New York Giants will aim for their second straight road win when they get Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season underway with a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football. New York (1-1) was trounced by Dallas at home in its season-opener before rallying from a 21-point deficit in the second half to post a 31-28 victory at Arizona last week. Running back Saquon Barkley suffered a sprained ankle in the win, however, and will miss Thursday Night Football. The 49ers (2-0) extended their regular-season winning streak to 12 games with their 30-23 triumph at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2.
Last Weeks Record: 2-2-1
This Weeks Bets:
San Francisco -10 (-110)
New York has three days to get healed up and prepare for one of the most dangerous teams in the league... on both sides of the ball. The 49ers rank fourth in EPA per play and No. 3 in EPA allowed per play after two weeks. The Giants, on the other hand, are 23rd and 27th respectively in those advanced metrics.
Giants team total Under 16.5 (-115)
The Giants lost Saquon Barkley who has accounted for almost 25% of their offensive output, have less prep time vs. a healthy and elite offense, are dealing with O-line injuries, and their defense can't get off the field. The books have moved this to -11 and I don't see many paths that lead the Giants to 17-plus points. Without Barkley, they have zero identity and are one Daniel Jones rush away from Tyrod Taylor. This is an offense that is constantly playing catchup but the 49ers give up the underneath and protect the explosive plays. Crawling back into this game will be impossible.
Christian McCaffrey longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-115
In Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Christian McCaffrey had 22 carries for 152 yards and three catches for 17 yards. Last week against the Los Angeles Rams, he had 20 carries for 116 yards and three catches for 19 yards. McCaffrey had a 51-yard rush last week and a 65-yard rush in Week 1. In fact, you have to go back to Week 16 of last year to find a game where he did not break a run for double-digit yardage. He is the definition of a home-run threat. The Giants allowed a 22-yard run to James Conner last week and a 25-yard run to Tony Pollard in Week 1. That game against the Cowboys was a small workload for Pollard given the nature of the game and yet he still broke a long one. I think this game sets up similarly for McCaffrey.
Brock Purdy Under 28.5 pass attempts (-130)
The Niners had built a 21-6 lead over the Seahawks by the middle of the third quarter and across their final 28 offensive plays (end-of-game kneel downs were excluded), they only attempted ten passes. Brock Purdy finished with 26 pass attempts for the game, a mark that is certainly low for him. In fact of the ten games (both regular season and playoffs) that he started and finished, he has only had less pass attempts in four of those games. Those four games were blowouts of 17, 23, 25, and 28
Elijah Mitchell Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110)
Elijah Mitchell has logged just five rushing attempts this season (all coming in Week 1), and didn't even take the field in the last game. But given Shanahan's comments, we should see a workload for Mitchell more in line with last year's. In the four regular season games that Mitchell and McCaffrey played together last year, Mitchell averaged 9.8 carries and 59.5 rushing yards per game.