Well, it's basically the weekend, so you know what that means, fade all my gambling picks and I hate my job. Time to drown the sorrows of the work week into some ice crispy miller lites and watch the Detroit Lions head to Lambeau Field to take on the "Paaaaacckkkkerrrssssssssssss"- Uncle Tim. I don't want to bet this game, I just want everyone to have fun. It's a battle of my best friends. Jared Goff/Uncle Tim(not on the Packers, notable CMS blogger and borderline alcoholic). Stop me if you've heard this before, but me, Tim, Blake Bortles, and Jared Goff partied at Bottled Blonde out in Scottsdale, AZ after the Thursday round of the Waste Management Open. Jared called me annoying but he didn't mean it.
I just want all my friends to have fun! "Live, Laugh, Love, LaFleur"- Uncle Tim
The Green Bay Packers head into Thursday Night Football on a high, having completed a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. Key players were missing from that game, with star cornerback Jaire Alexander and offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins on the sidelines. Unfortunately for Green Bay, it looks as if all three of those players will be unavailable again, with recent reports indicating that Alexander will soon be the last to be ruled out.
First place in the NFC North is on the line in this rivalry game featuring 2-1 teams. Detroit famously kept Green Bay out of the playoffs in Week 18 of last season at Lambeau Field, so this a definite revenge spot for Jordan Love and the Packers, who will reportedly be getting back some key players in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson.
I am running ICE cold. May retire from gambling. MAYBE. But not tonight because I got the LOCKS.
Picks:
Detroit -1.5 (-104)
The Packers continue to deal with a ton of injuries and now have to face a Detroit pass rush that had seven sacks last week with three members of its starting O-line questionable. There are a plethora of injuries elsewhere, but DET will have an advantage on the defensive line. Jordan Love is still not a QB I want to back. He is still the most aggressive throwing in football meaning he is throwing into tight windows and he has a worse CPOE than Justin Fields. Detroit allowed 183 yards to the Falcons in Week 3 while Green Bay allowed 446 to Atlanta in Week 2.
Jordan Love o231.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Jordan Love has easily cleared the 231.5 passing yards line he’s set at for Thursday Night Football against the Detroit Lions. The Green Bay Packers QB is averaging 32 passing attempts per game and is currently third in EPA per play among quarterbacks this season, behind just Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy. Add the fact that Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will both return to the lineup and Love has his primary weapons back in the fold, clearing him to go Over this passing yards number against a suspect Detroit secondary.
Jordan Love o32.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
With Aaron Jones out the last two weeks, AJ Dillon has operated as the Packers' lead back and has done nothing encouraging with that opportunity. Across the 39 carries he has handled this season, he has averaged an abysmal 2.7 yards per carry. That mark ranks third-worst among all running backs that have had at least 30+ carries. Even if Jones returns this week, he likely will work on a very limited snap count and will be given ten days until the Packers' next game to get to 100%. With that in mind, we should expect Matt LeFleur to dial up a healthy amount of passes in order to avoid having to lean on Dillon too heavily - a mistake that dug the Packers into their 17-0 hole before Jordan Love bailed them out.
Romeo Doubs Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Romeo Doubs has quietly been one of the NFL's breakout receivers dating back to last year. The former fourth-round pick shined when healthy last year, tallying 42 receptions (fifth among all rookies) on 67 targets (sixth) for 425 yards (tenth). He is off to an impressive start already, having tallied 11 receptions on 20 targets for 129 yards and three touchdowns. That comes despite playing limited snaps in Week 1 due to injury (48% snap share) and a muted Week 2 performance (two receptions for 30 yards).
Sam LaPorta u4.5 Receptions Made (-166)
The Packers' defense has gotten its entirely fair share of criticisms over the years under Joe Barry, but if there's one small victory they've typically walked away with is that they rarely let tight ends beat them. Dating back to last year, they have allowed a tight end to reel in five or more catches just five times in 20 games. Two of those have strangely been to Cole Kmet, who seemingly comes to play against Green Bay, despite having an otherwise mediocre career thus far, reaching that mark in half of the last six games he has played against Green Bay.
Each team to score a touchdown in each half (+145)
Each of these teams’ offenses has been looking competent so far this season. Jordan Love has not been great, but he has flashed at times and is not making mistakes. Jared Goff and the Lions offense has been consistently one of the best in the league. If this game ends up being a shootout, which is likely, this line could hit early in the third quarter. With a game total set at 46 points combined, each team needs more than three touchdowns already. Take advantage of this positive odds line on your Thursday night wagers.
As always, bet responsibly and @JaredGoff answer my text.