We have both the Bills and the Patriots returning to TNF after both playing on Thanksgiving. Bills did not cover against the Detroit Lions, neither did the Pats against the Minnesota Vikings as McCorkle Jones threw his helmet into the turf at the end of the game like a cry baby....wahhhh!
As always well start with the Locks:
Josh Allen O42.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
As far as the matchup, Allen has been active in the run game versus New England for his career. He’s hit this number in 2 straight games vs Belichick and 2/4 in Foxborough for his career. Over the last 2 seasons, Allen has averaged 49 rushing YPG and 7 rush attempts per game in the month of December. The Patriots have not faced many mobile QB’s this season, but the one they have had a lot of success: Lamar Jackson 11-107, Justin Fields 14-82. Even Sam Ehlinger pulled off 5 rushes for 39 yards. 1U and play up to the 44.5.
Bills -4.5 (-110)
BIlls haven't covered in 5 straight games, now 5 is the sign (shout out @JerseyJerry). We have zero proof that Bill Belichick can slow down Josh Allen and the Bills. I think the Bills are going to start putting things together and fixing up their weak areas going into the final weeks of the season. New England’s defense ranks #1 in EPA but I think this Patriots defense is completely fraudulent when you examine it a bit further. Bills will win by more than 5.
Hunter Henry O24.5 (-114)
Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to have a big workload with Damien Harris out, which I assume would make the Bills stack the box to prevent the run after Stevenson had a big game against the Vikings. This should open up some seam routes or some quick check downs to Henry.
Longshots:
Over 43.5 -110
I am still not sold on TNF overs (not counting the Thanksgiving night game) and Packers/Titans a few weeks ago. I still dont think Josh Allen is 100% and this may be personal opinion but Mac Jone aint HIM. I expect this to be a 21-14 game.
Rhamondre Stevenson o61.5 Rushing Yards -114
As I mentioned he will be the featured back for the Pats tonight, but I do expect the Bills to have game planned around this and will be forcing Jones to throw more than let Stevenson run free. I am taking the over but am a little sched(scared) about it.
Stefon Diggs First TD Scorer +550
He is HIM. Allens favorite target, look for him to get the ball early in this game and take one for 6.
