Ah one of the best weekends of golf every year. The PGA tour heads out to Scottsdale, AZ for the Waste Management Open. Home to many bachelor parties, celebrities, and the 5th major of the PGA. I can reminisce and repeat the story of how I became BEST friends with Jared Goff and Blake Bortles, on a late Thursday night, in the Bottled Blonde VIP Section. Shoutout Uncle Tim.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the two-time defending champion. The former Masters champion looks to become the first PGA Tour golfer since Steve Stricker (John Deere Classic, 2009-2011) to win the same tournament in three consecutive years. Despite the Monday morning WDs from Viktor Hovland(loser) and Xander Schauffele, Scheffler will still be met by a stout field. Similiar to the kind of stout I was this time last year, I was a thicccccc boi. Justin Thomas enters on the heels of back-to-back top-six finishes to open the season, while Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns and Max Homa will also be looking to build off an impressive track record at TPC Scottsdale.
I'm gonna have a FAT card this weekend, after taking last weeks tournament off, i'm ready to get back in the mix.
Tournament details: Phoenix Open
Date: Feb 8–11, 2024
Course: TPC Scottsdale - Stadium Course
Watch on:NBC, GOLF Purse:$8,800,000
Waste Management Phoenix Open Winners: 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19); 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16); 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19); 2020: Webb Simpson (-17); 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17); 2018: Gary Woodland (-18); 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17); 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14); 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15); 2014: Kevin Stadler (-16); 2013: Phil Mickelson (-23); 2012: Kyle Stanley (-15); 2011: Mark Wilson (-18); 2010: Hunter Mahan (-16).
Previous Winner 4 Round Scores:
2023: Scottie Scheffler 68-64-68-65 -19/265
2022: Scottie Scheffler 68-71-62-67 -16/268
2021: Brooks Koepka 68-66-66-65 -19/265
2020: Webb Simpson 71-63-64-69 -17/267
2019: Rickie Fowler 64-65-64-74 -17/267
Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for Waste Management Phoenix Open winners since 2010:
2023 – Scottie Scheffler: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2022 – Scottie Scheffler: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 44th, Round 3: 3rd.
2021 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 21st, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 7th.
2020 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 66th, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 2nd.
2019 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2018 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 8th.
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd.
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
2015 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 20th, Round 3: 2nd.
2014 – Kevin Stadler: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
2013 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2012 – Kyle Stanley: Round 1: 33rd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 5th.
2011 – Mark Wilson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
2010 – Hunter Mahan: Round 1: 29th, Round 2 54th, Round 3: 6th.
Picks To Win:
Justin Thomas (10/1):
I’m willing to bet that JT will be the most popular pick amongst bettors this week, and for good reason. His game is back. Before tying for 6th at the shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he tied for 3rd at the American Express. His course history at TPC Scottsdale is tremendous. His last six finishes: 4th (2023), T-8 (2022), T-13 (2021), T-3 (2020), 3rd (2019) and T-17 (2018). It’s just a matter of time before Thomas wins this tournament.
Max Homa (16/1):
The Scottsdale transplant is amid a busy stretch of play; this will mark the third of four straight weeks on the golf course. Homa's 10-tournament, top-12 streak snapped at Pebble Beach with a poor T66 effort, but his hometown should be primed for his bounce back. The six-time PGA Tour winner has never missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open with finishes of T14 in 2022 and T6 in 2020. The putter has been uncharacteristically cool in the early portions of 2024, but that club should get right sooner rather than later.
Jordan Spieth (20/1):
Make no mistake about it, Jordan Spieth disappointed last week at Pebble Beach. Yet I still remain cautiously optimistic that the three-time major winner is in store for a big season. Through two rounds at Pebble Beach, Spieth gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories, while falling victim to a faulty putter. Now he returns to a track where he has recorded a fourth- and sixth-place finish in two of his past three appearances. Spieth has gained strokes ball-striking in all seven of his appearances at TPC Scottsdale. I’m willing to take my chances that the putter finally heats up this week.
Adam Scott (55/1): Sleeper Pick
The wily veteran is going unnoticed at the moment. Scott has nabbed five straight top-20 finishes around the globe, including top-five finishes at the Bermuda Championship and Australian Open. Fresh off a nice result at Pebble Beach, the former Masters champion should have realistic opportunity to become yet another surprise winner on the PGA Tour. He ranked sixth last week in terms of ball striking and has found his groove with the broomstick.
Tom Hoge (115/1): Long shot Pick:
He comes off of a sixth place finish last week at Pebble Beach and has a 14th place finish to his credit here in Phoenix, along with a 15th place finish at Bay Hill and a ninth at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills in 2022. He is of the ball-striker mold for sure and he can also putt. Over the last 24 rounds, Hoge ranks 11th in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and 39th on the Par 4s of 450-500 yards. Last season on Tour, Hoge ranked 52nd in Par 4 Scoring. If the long-shot trend continues, Hoge looks to be a worthy candidate.
Players To Fade:
Scottie Scheffler (5/1):
Scheffler famously struggled with the putter last season, ranking 162nd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. So far this season, he hasn't shown much improvement and he enters this week's event ranked 117th in that category. Great player, and back to back champion, but I'm not taking him with the value of +500.
Cameron Young (35/1):
I remain a big believer in Cameron Young’s talent, but until he puts a few weeks of strong PGA Tour golf together, I see no reason to pay this type of premium. Young is coming off another disappointing 70th-place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he lost over 2.5 strokes on approach. While his driver remains a weapon, I have far too many concerns about his irons and putter to deploy him in this spot.
Daniel Berger (80/1):
I will continue to take a wait-and-see approach with Daniel Berger, who showed some signs of life at the American Express, before finishing toward the bottom of the field in his last start at the Farmers Insurance Open. It’s only a matter of time before Berger regains form, but there should be zero urgency to be coming off a major injury who is still clearly to still finding his footing in competitive golf.
Top 10:
Min Woo Lee (+320) – If ever a player was built for this stage, it’s Lee! He will thrive in the big crowds … sit back and watch the man cook!!!
Sungjae Im +275 – Few people have gained more strokes on the field than him in this event (1.82 per round). His four finishes here are T6, T7, T17, T34.
Akshay Bhatia +500 – Bhatia’s playing some great golf this season, finishing T14 or better in three of four starts in the new year. His driving and short game are a perfect combo for his debut in Scottsdale.
J.T. Poston (+300) – Poston is quietly playing some of the best golf of his career in recent months, including four straight top-20s to open the new year. Expect that streak to continue in Scottsdale.
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