Sundays during the #NFL season are the best. I am already thinking about the Chicken Parm I am going to order around 4pm. Nice little rainy day here in NY. Might have a few stellas, and fire off some crazy parlays.
Week 1 Record: 8-8 (1-0 on MNF. Jets ML)
Week 2 Record: 10-13-1 (Not Great)
Week 3 Schedule & Picks:
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens:
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Colts: +300 | Ravens: -385
SPREAD: Ravens -8 | O/U: 45
If the Colts are going to pull the upset, they will need to force Lamar Jackson into some errors and play a sound enough defensive game to give themselves a chance. Also, they will need a heroic performance from backup QB Gardner Minshew if Anthony Richardson is still out after suffering a concussion last week. That seems like asking a lot of Indianapolis. As fun as it is to think of the alternative, I'm not foreseeing an encore of Minshew Mania in Baltimore.
Spread Pick: Baltimore -8
Total Pick: u45
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns:
WHERE: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Titans: +143 | Browns: -170
SPREAD: Browns -3.5 | O/U: 39.5
It's hard to reconcile the post-Nick Chubb haplessness of Deshaun Watson and the Browns' offense against the Steelers on Monday with Cleveland's status as the favorite here, even at home, even with Kareem Hunt signed. It's much easier to picture the Browns becoming embroiled in yet another ugly nail-biter. Jim Schwartz's defense poses a definite problem for the Titans, but after an encouraging showing against the Chargers, Tennessee should be able to muster enough to squeak by. But this is one of the games where I can't get bet against my on teams. Quite the lethal backfield the Browns have with the Watson-Hunt tandem.
Spread Pick: Browns -3.5
Total Pick: o39.5
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions:
WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Falcons: +143 | Lions: -170
SPREAD: Lions -3 | O/U: 46
The Lions' most highly anticipated home opener in memory did NOT go as planned. The refurbished defense helped Seattle's Geno Smith get right, Jared Goff's epic interception-less streak ended with a devastating pick-six, and Detroit's health issues piled up, including a potential season-ender to C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Adding insult to injury -- literally! -- the Seahawks turned CJGJ's pregame ski-mask bit into a postgame troll job. For the Lions, Ford Field felt more like Ford's Theatre. Other than that, Mr. Campbell, how was the game? Back in the friendly confines this Sunday, though, Detroit can ward off deep-rooted "same old Lions" vibes by beating the upstart Falcons. Good teams win, GREAT teams cover.
Spread Pick: Atlanta +3
Total Pick: o46
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers:
WHERE: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Saints: +110 | Packers: -130
SPREAD: Packers -2 | O/U: 42.5
The Packers' young receiving corps will face its stiffest test yet in a Saints secondary playing as well as any in the league. Marcus Maye's suspension is certainly a blow to that unit, and the defense overall, but New Orleans has the playmakers at all three levels to withstand his absence. That this game is in Green Bay might actually work to the Saints' advantage, given how dominant Dennis Allen's defenses have been on the road in recent years. Since 2018, New Orleans has allowed the fewest points per game (18.7) and the third-fewest yards per game (317.9) away from home, per NFL Research. The Saints' ability to hold firm in tough environments -- and Lambeau is as tough as it gets -- makes the difference on Sunday. But I want the LOVE.
Spread Pick: Packers -2
Total Pick: u42.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars:
WHERE: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Texans: +320 | Jaguars: -420
SPREAD: Jaguars -8.5 | O/U: 44
Trevor Lawrence and Co. took a step back in Week 2, settling for field goals in three trips to the red zone. That's not going to be enough -- even against a rookie quarterback still navigating the game at the highest level. I expect Jacksonville to rebound offensively against a Houston D that's allowing 28 points per game. Rookie C.J. Stroud showed improvement in throwing for nearly 400 yards last week, but the man needs better protection. He's been sacked a league-high 11 times in two weeks -- David Carr is somewhere having serious flashbacks right now -- and the Jags' opportunistic defense is sure to take advantage of the Texans' shoddy O-line. Taking the points.
Spread Pick: Jaguars -8.5
Total Pick: u44
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins:
WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Broncos: +235 | Dolphins: -292
SPREAD: Dolphins -6.5 | O/U: 48.5
An offensive juggernaut through the first two weeks of this season, Miami has exhibited a pick-your-poison attack that can kill you by land or air. In Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill staged a flying circus on Brandon Staley's Chargers. Bill Belichick responded by putting an umbrella over Miami's wideouts in Week 2, inherently allowing Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert to gash the Patriots on the ground. So, what's the move this weekend for Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph? His underperforming unit has drawn the ire of his boss and the man his boss chose not to hire. Unfortunately for Joseph, I don't envision Sunday helping his cause with either. I want to say 6.5 points is a lot but Vegas always knows.
Spread Pick: Dolphins -6.5
Total Pick: o48.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings:
WHERE: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Chargers: -105 | Vikings: -115
SPREAD: Vikings -1 | O/U: 54
Consider this my low-confidence pick of the week. Neither team has done anything to earn credibility in the early going, but the Vikings are at home and will have had nine days to prepare for the Chargers after losing last Thursday night. Minnesota has lost six fumbles this season, the most by any team through two games in 20 years, while the Bolts are the first team in league history to start 0-2 despite scoring 50+ points and having zero giveaways in their first two games. Maybe the Vikings play a little cleaner while the Chargers do the opposite? Flip a coin. All I know these are the kind of overs you dream about.
Spread Pick: Vikings -1
Total Pick: o54
New England Patriots at New York Jets:
WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Patriots: -150 | Jets: +126
SPREAD: Patriots -2.5 | O/U: 36.5
I have little faith in the Patriots' offense, especially in this matchup, but if Bill Belichick can no longer put together a game plan to shut down Zach Wilson, then I'm afraid it's about to get really ugly in New England. The Jets QB has a career record of 0-4 against the Pats with a 50.9 percent completion rate, TD-to-INT ratio of 2:7 and passer rating of 50.6. Per NFL Research, Wilson ranks last in those three categories among the 54 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts versus a single opponent since 2021. Mac Jones and Co. seem like they're in real jeopardy of falling to 0-3, but I can't bring myself to predict it. The weather stinks in NY, going to be running the ball all day.
Spread Pick: Jets +2.5
Total Pick: u36.5
Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders:
WHERE: FedExField (Landover, Md.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Bills: -292 | Commanders: +235
SPREAD: Bills -6.5 | O/U: 43.5
Sam Howell stockholders must be feeling pretty good after last Sunday's performance, when the 23-year-old orchestrated his second fourth-quarter comeback in as many weeks. With a stout, ball-hawking Buffalo defense coming to town, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will need to continue to scheme up creative ways to get the ball out of Howell's hands and into those of his deep list of playmakers. Just like last week: Get 'em in space, and let 'em YAC. If Howell stays disciplined and decisive, and the Commanders can pressure Josh Allen with just their front four, Washington scores the upset to hit 3-0 for the first time since 2005.
Spread Pick: Washington +6.5
Total Pick: o43.5
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks:
WHERE: Lumen Field (Seattle)
WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Panthers: +228 | Seahawks: -285
SPREAD: Seahawks -6.5 | O/U: 42
This game stinks! Geno Smith likely won't be able to coast, exactly, against the NFL's fourth-ranked pass defense, even with Shaq Thompson and Jaycee Horn on the shelf, especially if DK Metcalf is out or limited. But I would expect that ranking to look worse by the end of Week 3. Carolina just does not look ready to hang with Seattle, whether Bryce Young is under center or not. The Seahawks should have a much more comfortable time at home than they did in the season-opening loss to the Rams.
Spread Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Total Pick: u42
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardnials:
WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Cowboys: -700 | Cardinals: +500
SPREAD: Cowboys -12.5 | O/U: 43
Through two weeks, the Cowboys boast the No. 1 scoring offense (35 points per game) and the No. 1 scoring defense (5.0 points per game!), while the Cardinals just blew a three-touchdown lead to the team Dallas shut out in Week 1. The beauty of the NFL is any team can win on any given Sunday ... just not this time.
Spread Pick: Cowboys -12.5
Total Pick: u43
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs:
WHERE: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Bears: +550 | Chiefs: -800
SPREAD: Chiefs -13 | O/U: 48
It's Justin Fields' fault. Luke Getsy's to blame. What about the defense? A lot of finger-pointing going on among Chicago sports fans right now, as they grapple with the team's demoralizing start and the young QB's early struggles. Up next: a date with the reigning Super Bowl champs at Arrowhead. Not great, right? Actually, I think the Chiefs are sneakily the perfect opponent at the perfect moment for the Bears -- and more importantly, their third-year passer. The odds are literally stacked against him. Expectations have bottomed out. But with the bulk of that weight off his shoulders, I think we finally see a freer, looser and less apprehensive Fields. Although the Bears come up short in this one -- they're not fixing all of their problems overnight, especially not against the best player on the planet -- the game's not as lopsided as folks might think, thanks to Fields embracing a nothing-to-lose mentality. Let it rip. Fuck Taylor Swift, fuck Travis Kelce.
Spread Pick: Bears +13
Total Pick: u48
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders:
WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo, NFL+
MONEYLINE: Steelers: +126 | Raiders: -150
SPREAD: Raiders -2.5 | O/U: 43
In Pittsburgh's 26-22 win over Cleveland this past Monday night, the Steelers scored the first points of the game on an OLB pick-six and the last points of the game on an OLB pick-up-six. With all due respect to Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt, that's not happening in back-to-back weeks. So, where do Pittsburgh's points come from this Sunday night? A sputtering offense that just put its leading receiver of the past three seasons on IR? In the Raiders' home opener, I trust Josh Jacobs to get right against Pittsburgh's last-ranked run defense more than I trust Kenny Pickett to get right against Las Vegas' suspect secondary.
Spread Pick: Raiders -2.5
Total Pick: u43