Were at the point of the NFL season, when it's Scott Hanson signing off from RedZone for the year. 3 games left. Conference Championship Weekend. 49ers vs. Lions. Chiefs vs Ravens. Nick Bosa vs. Jared Goff (close personal friend, once called me annoying at Bottled Blonde in Scottsdale(he didn't mean it)). Taylor Swift vs. Stavros Halkias.
I'm going to get ahead of it. The Chiefs have become the Tom Brady dynasty of the Patriots. ANNOYING! As a lifelong Cleveland Browns fan, born and raised in Cleveland, it pains me to say it, but I am rooting for the Ravens today. Lamar is sick, and Patrick Mahomes brother is a pervert. All time tweet by Lamar.
Now let's win some money!
Chiefs/Ravens
Kansas City +4.5 (-110)
The 4-point spread is somewhat of a “no man’s land” of point spreads. Those teams are better than a field goal fave but not quite strong enough to lay -5 and move to -6, somehow exceeding and falling short of expectations at the same time. At this point in the NFL schedule, the lines are the toughest we’ve faced all season. They’re pulsing with a season’s worth of data and sculpted by action and opinion from pros and joes. Getting the best number is the best way to beat the book. So, if you like the Ravens and got the -3 on Sunday night, good stuff. If you’re late to the party but still want to bet Baltimore, I’d pass on the point spread and go moneyline (-185 to -200 as of this writing). But if you’re buying into Kansas City’s sterling record as a pup and have the same apprehension when it comes to 4-point faves, take the +4 with Hamburger Andy.
Patrick Mahomes u24.5 Passing Completions (-115)
Not only will the communication be an issue for the Chiefs, but the play volume should be a concern after running just 47 total plays and losing the possession game 23 minutes to 37 minutes last week. Mahomes’ completion market is at a hefty 24.5 with THE BLITZ projecting just 22.59 completions and that’s with a large projection of 38 total passes. The Chiefs might not run a ton of plays vs. a very slow Baltimore offense that can eat the clock, especially late. The weather isn’t perfect with projected rain and double-digit winds while that rain is starting to look heavier as Sunday approaches. Baltimore can pressure without blitzing and Mahomes’ 54.1% Comp rate when facing pressure ranks 18th in the league.
Chiefs/Ravens o44.5 (-110)
I got this earlier in the week and hate it but here we are. The Baltimore Ravens' offense can get it done both on the ground and through the air, and Kansas City has plenty of notable injuries on defense heading into Sunday. Don't discount the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes either, as they're starting to roll and have left points on the table in the red zone.
Lamar Jackson o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+144)
The probable (I think he's playing but I dont do fact checks) return of tight end Mark Andrews is music to Lamar Jackson's ears. He’s been sidelined since Week 11 with an ankle injury but was a full participant in practice last week before sitting out the Divisional Round. Andrews had eight touchdown catches before going down and led the Ravens in receiving TDs the previous two seasons. He’s Jackson’s top target and adds another reliable red zone option for the Ravens QB.
Mark Andrews u34.5 Receiving Yards (-103)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered tight ends well throughout the year, allowing just 40.9 yards per game to that position. The need to really push Mark Andrews in his return and risk further injury is unneeded (especially if the Ravens advance to the Super Bowl) given that his replacement, second-year tight end Isaiah Likely, has filled in rather efficiently by averaging 36.6 yards across the last seven games and reaching the end zone six times across that span.
Zay Flowers u45.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Kansas City's secondary has also been incredible against wide receivers. Their 124.6 receiving yards allowed to opposing wide receivers ranks as the fourth-fewest this year. Their proficiency has held in the playoffs as well, limiting the likes of Tyreek Hill (62 yards), Jaylen Waddle (31 yards), and Stefon Diggs (21 yards) to rather pedestrian stat lines. Given that the three find a good amount of time in the slot (31.1%, 19.4%, and 30.3% respective slot rates), it should come as no surprise they had a hard time finding room against All-Pro slot cornerback Trent McDuffie.
Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (+130)
Pacheco closed at -115 in Week 18 (scored) and +115 last week (scored). In total, Pacheco has hit paydirt in six straight games and is playing nearly 75% of the snaps. There's a call for rain on Sunday, which would likely increase the run rate or the short passing game, which are both in Pacheco’s favor, as he has over 600 total yards during the TD streak and has become the No. 3 passing option.
Justice Hill anytime touchdown (+330)
Hill was more efficient as a runner than Gus Edwards last week, and has 5.3 yards per carry over the last five games compared to Edwards’ 4.0. Hill also took two of the four RB red-zone carries in the Divisional Round and will get a much easier matchup this week vs. the Chiefs, who finished 28th in EPA/rush, compared to the Texans, who had the No.1 rush defense, per success rate.
Travis Kelce o62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kelce has bounced back with 12 catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns so far in the playoffs, and his AFC Championship Game track record suggests he’s going to stay hot this weekend.Kelce finished with 10 grabs for 95 yards and a touchdown on this stage in 2022 and seven catches for 78 yards and a score a year ago.
Patrick Mahomes - Score First Touchdown (+2800)
It’s easy to forget, but in Mahomes’ 16 playoff games he’s rushed for five touchdowns, just over one per three games. We haven’t seen one in a long time and with the Ravens’ defense being so strong, I see Mahomes taking the team on his back and rushing for a TD.
49ers/Lions
Brandon Aiyuk first touchdown scorer (+700)
The Lions secondary is a pass funnel and had the sixth-worst record in terms of yardage allowed per game in the regular season, with 247.4 yards. Across two playoff games, they’ve averaged 338 passing yards against, with all four remaining teams seeing less than 200 yards against per game. This is a team that simply can’t stop the pass, and with Brandon Aiyuk’s deep threat, I see him as the man most likely to score first.
Jared Goff o255.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The O/U on Goff's passing yards has moved as high as 260.5 at some books but can be still be found as low as 255.5. Goff has eclipsed that number in his last six games and he's averaging 281.7 ypg over that span. While there's a narrative that Goff struggles outdoors he has actually averaged 260.2 ypg in 66 career games outside and the warm weather and light breeze on Sunday should make for ideal passing conditions. Game script could also play a role and with the 49ers installed as 7-point favorites there's a chance they build an early lead and force Detroit to abandon the run. That would make it even more likely for Goff to eclipse his passing yards total especially since he has thrown for more than 270 yards in four of Detroit's five losses this season.
Brock Purdy o7.5 rush yards (-104)
Purdy's not known for his motor, but he does face a Lions defense boasting the highest pressure percentage in the NFL. Purdy has had to save his butt against some more aggressive defenses this season, with his bigger rushing efforts coming against teams like Tampa, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Minnesota — teams that either blitz at a high rate and/or generate high-pressure rates on opposing passers. Projections for Purdy range from 7 to 17.5, but the bulk sit above this total of 7.5 rushing yards Sunday night.