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Writer's pictureYoung Horn

NCAA Play-In Preview: Howard Vs. Wagner/Virginia Vs. Colorado State


WHO: #16 Wagner Seahawks (16-15) vs. #16 Howard Bison (18-16)

WHEN: Tuesday, March 19, 2024 6:40 p.m. EST/ 3:40 p.m. PST

TV: TruTV

Spread: Wagner +4 (-116), Howard -4 (+100)

Total Odds: O 128 (-108), U 128 (-110)

Money Line Odds: Wagner (+140), Howard (-162)


The Wagner offense isn’t built to do much, ranking 334th in offensive efficiency, with the seventh-worst team field goal percentage (39.2) in the nation. Howard, in addition to being the best-named school in the country, has won eight of its past nine games, with an offense averaging 12 more points per game than the Seahawks. The Bison also have the edge on the glass and the experience of playing in last year’s NCAA Tournament, as well as 26-year-old Seth Towns, the former Ivy League Player of the Year. 


Official Picks:

Wagner vs Howard o128 (-108)

Wagner’s defense may have some decent numbers, but it hasn’t been tested. The Seahawks’ strength of opposing offenses ranks just 354th, per Kenpom. They haven't played capable shooting teams and have been happy to let teams fly away from downtown. Howard is a different test entirely — the Bison rank 20th in 3-point shooting (37.4%). Meanwhile, Howard’s defense has been dreadful despite facing a favorable schedule (349th in strength of opposing offenses faced). They’ve been routinely beaten anyway, holding just four opponents below 65 points all year long.


WHO: #10 Virginia Cavaliers (23-10) vs. #10 Colorado State Rams (24-10)

WHEN: Tuesday, March 19th 9:10 p.m. EST / 6:10 p.m. PST

WHERE: UD Arena; Dayton, OH

TV: TruTV

Odds: Colorado State -2.5 Virginia +2.5

Total Odds: O 120.5 (-110) U 120.5 (+110)

Money Line: Virginia (+129), Colorado State (-153)


Everyone and their mother is upset that UVA made this tournament, especially with the Big East getting absolutely hosed. They didn't make it by much, but the Virginia Cavaliers are going dancing and now have a shot to win an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since their run to the 2019 National Championship. Standing in their way is a very solid Colorado State team that tore through its non-conference slate before struggling through the competitive Mountain West, a league that received six March Madness bids. The Cavaliers and Rams narrowly earned at-large bids as the last two teams in the field of 68 and will now face each other in a First Four play-in game in Dayton, with the winner securing the outright No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region and advancing to take on No. 7 seed Texas in the first round on Thursday in Charlotte. Tony Bennett is 16-10 in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach.


F Jacob Groves – Virginia

The senior forward form Spokane, WA will be a player for the Rams to key on on defense. Groves is a 6’9″ forward who isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep (He has three or more attempted threes in 20 out 33 games for Virginia). Limiting Groves from deep will be a big factor for CSU.

F Joel Scott – Colorado State

The former D2 Player of the Year has stepped up in a big way for the Rams at the end of the season. Since a defeat to San Diego State in February, Scott has been averaging 16.4 points on 58.7% shooting from the floor. His inside game has been key for the Rams since they’ve struggled from the outside in conference play.


Official Plays:

Colorado St. (-153): There may not be a worse offense in college basketball than the Virginia Cavaliers and while they won 23 games thanks to their defense, I don't believe they'll be able to will their way to victory vs. Colorado State. The Rams boast a great offense, hitting nearly 77 points per game on 49% shooting. They take care of the basketball as well, and they have plenty of practice going up against elite defensive teams. I don't believe the Cavaliers' offense will do enough in this game to keep pace. Rams win and advance.


UVA vs. Colorado St. u120.5 (-110): The Rams have played above this total in 32 of their 34 games this year. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers haven’t consistently been able to keep scoring down, having hit the Over in four of their last five games — all of which were played at higher totals than Tuesday’s game. Virginia has also gone Over 120.5 points in 20 of their 33 games this season. This is a case of oddsmakers looking at the real tendencies of a team and going way too far with the line they produce as a result. 

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