Boys and girls (sup?), I am hot right now. Just seeing the board well. 18-7 if were counting the play in games (5-1). This post is going to be quick and to the point since I have to head to UBS arena to watch the NY Islanders get worked. Probably just gonna sit at the Heinken Bar and watch college ball.
Anyway here are more scientifically proven W I N N E R S:
Dayton +9.5 (-110)
The Flyers shouldn’t have needed that crazy comeback against Nevada in the Round of 64. Dayton had some tourney nerves in the first 30 minutes of that opener and we saw that in missed layups and unforced turnovers. However, the Flyers hung around and snapped out of it just in time. The Flyers are a fantastic offense with plenty of scoring depth, especially from beyond the arc. Arizona is not a great defense at defending the perimeter and could find itself in a shootout. Game models see the Wildcats coming away with the win on Saturday, but only by six to eight points. Give me all the points with Dayton in the Round of 32.
Washington State Team Total u61.5 (-118)
Iowa State forced opponents to take 45% of their shots from beyond the arc, keeping them out of the paint until they have to take a bad look from deep. Washington State will hate that. It took only 31.8% of its shots from deep, No. 304 in the country. That kind of discretion will not be an option against the best defense in the country, crushing the Cougars’ offensive design and lengthening every Wazzu possession, slowing the game down as a whole.
Oakland (+220)
We just the Oakland zone defense leave one of the best offenses in the country befuddled and confused for nearly 40 minutes. That's something that can be replicated here. NC State hasn't been good against the zone this season. Naturally, you'd expect that for an offense so heavily reliant on running through the post, especially when that big man is playing off the dribble. The zone data for NC State is limited. Not many teams in the ACC play it outside Syracuse, whose data is useless as the Orange were abysmal defensively this season. Last year, NC State saw it much more and put up pretty bad numbers against it.
Texas +6.5 (-104)
I'm leaning towards an experienced Texas Longhorns side that made made the Elite Eight last year over a Vols squad that has a history of underachieving in March. While perimeter-based offenses in the SEC didn't test the Vols inside during conference play, expect the athletic Texas forwards to attack them there. After all the Longhorns are second in the country at attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets and they are used to the grind of the Big 12. Vols Rick Barnes coached Texas for 17 years before leaving in 2015 and his long-time assistant Rodney Terry is now running the show. That familiarity should turn this into a rock-fight and with Barnes going just 4-15 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2009, I'll take the points with the dogs.
Creighton -5 (-110)
Oregon is red-hot but looking at both team's overall body of work this season, Creighton is the clear play. The Bluejays are the more experienced and complete team and they've excelled on both ends of the floor. On defense they have an elite rim-protector in Ryan Kalkbrenner who will limit Oregon center N'Faly Dante. On offense they can score inside and out and have multiple scoring options with three players averaging more than 17.0 ppg. Despite showing improvement on D this month the Ducks are still just 230th in the country in opponent eFG% (51.3%). The Bluejays are third in the country in eFG% (57.7%) and with their experienced ball-handlers they won't be making unforced errors like the Gamecocks did against Oregon in Rd 1.